Why 2012 is different to 2004 (and why that could mean a Romney win)

[perdedor]

1. Obama is running 5%-8% or so worse off than George W. Bush was at this time. It may seem slight, but in a close election it could prove critical.

This simply isn't true. In fact, Obama is pacing Romney by a higher percentage than Bush was Kerry  in April 2004.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

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It's arguable as to who is more mind-numbingly boring between Romney and Kerry, but I would like to know how you got to that second conclusion. Kerry said one mush mouthed thing about his vote for Iraq and then made the mistake of going windsurfing; the rest was mostly a smear campaign. Romney is sorely mistaken if he thinks people will just forget about the ugly primary, another thing that Kerry didn't have to deal with.

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Romney will win 90%+ of the GOP vote, of course. Unfortunately for him, the GOP's share of the electorate is going to drop if they can't find a way to get the grassroots working for Romney. At the end of it all, that may be the death nail for Romney more than the moderate enthusiasm on the Dem side for Obama.

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The most recent CNN poll (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/16/cnnorc-poll-april-13-15-2012-election/) shows Obama leading Romney by 2% (44-42) on the issue of the economy, and by double digits on a multitude of leadership questions.

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Obama's approval rating is an average 47-48, higher if you weed out the hackish Republican pollsters. The trend also shows increasing approvals for Obama, not declining.