Why 2012 is different to 2004 (and why that could mean a Romney win)

[ajb]

Very typical that Democrats are missing the forest for the trees.

Poke holes in the details, but the overarching ideas of the original post are pretty valid. Romney is more competitive on the main issue of the day than Kerry was. Bush had better approval ratings than Obama. The Republican electorate is much more likely to come out to dethrone Obama than the younger Democrat electorate was for Bush'04.

I really hope Democrats keep underestimating Mitt Romney. This isn't going to be a blowout for Obama. It will be a close election.

There's every reason to think that this will be a close election. But it's also true that Romney has much lower favorables at this stage than Kerry had at a comparable stage, and that Romney isn't polling as well against Obama as Kerry was against Bush.

For that matter, in 2004 the Republican ground game was much stronger than the Democratic ground game, which was probably critical. I don't see anyone claiming that the Romney ground game is better than the Obama ground game.

[ajb]

For that matter, in 2004 the Republican ground game was much stronger than the Democratic ground game, which was probably critical. I don't see anyone claiming that the Romney ground game is better than the Obama ground game.

If the election ends up turning on the ground game, then Romney will lose and likely lose badly.  His performance in the primaries indicates that he places little importance in a ground game, tho when the rules such as those in Virginia with its complicated ballot requirements required he build at least some ground game, he was able to.  So it's not a lack of ability to engage in the ground game, but rather a feeling that he is better off focusing on other campaign aspects.

I think the ground game matters in any close election. And it's worth remembering that the Obama campaign is really, really, good at it.

[ajb]

Nobody likes Romney

except Republicans, and believe me Republicans will rally to him

except independents, moderates, who Romney has great appeal to

except conservatives, who will certainly not be voting for Obama and will be voting for Romney by default

except those who hate Obama's socialized medical scheme

   

Republicans will indeed rally to Romney -- polls suggest they already have. And Romney will do well enough with independents. But moderates are out of reach. Moderates quite regularly favor Obama 2-1 over Romney.

[ajb]

For that matter, in 2004 the Republican ground game was much stronger than the Democratic ground game, which was probably critical. I don't see anyone claiming that the Romney ground game is better than the Obama ground game.

If the election ends up turning on the ground game, then Romney will lose and likely lose badly.  His performance in the primaries indicates that he places little importance in a ground game, tho when the rules such as those in Virginia with its complicated ballot requirements required he build at least some ground game, he was able to.  So it's not a lack of ability to engage in the ground game, but rather a feeling that he is better off focusing on other campaign aspects.

I think the ground game matters in any close election. And it's worth remembering that the Obama campaign is really, really, good at it.

Are you sure that the Obama Ground Game will be just as good this time around?

I'm seeing an Obama enthusiasm gap. 

In 2008, there was a lot of talk about voting for "Change" and that excited a lot of people. 

What do you think the rally cry will be for Obama in 2012?  We want free health care?

The volunteers were young people, but now the young people are unemployed and trying to pay off their college loans, they won't have time to canvas for Obama. 

Mitt has the Mormon volunteers, which love to canvas neighborhoods to convert voters. 

Granted, some Democratic supporters will be disappointed in Obama, and particularly for his having implemented a Republican health care plan. The Republican primary has helped there, in terms of sharpening the choices for people, and polls now show Democrats united behind Obama, and African Americans as the demographic most excited about voting in the fall. So I'm not convinced there's an enthusiasm gap, or at least not one favoring Romney.
But look, also, at how much money the Obama campaign has already invested in campaign offices and staff across the country -- remember that Obama had more offices in Iowa before the primary there than the entire Republican field put together.