Provincial by-elections in BC tomorrow!

[lilTommy]

Port Moody-Coquitlam is almost a solid, for sure thing, guaranteed win for the NDP... they somehow won over Joe Transolini former mayor of Port Moody which is a solid candidate if that was the end of it... of it gets better, Joe used to be a big time BCliberal...
joining in the mid-’90s because, he even co-chaired Clark’s successful first provincial campaign in Port Moody in 1995. Hes a centrist no doubt and thats caused some no-one-is-saying-this-outloud ruffles amongst the traditionalists in the BCNDP. But a win is a win so.

Chilliwack-Hope is in the traditionally very conservative Fraser Valley; this one i am not so sure of... i have heard the Conservatives will win and that the NDP can win... first is likely if the Liberals just fall apart and the polls are suggesting they are almost done in the province. BUT if the Liberals hold on to most of their base... the NDPs candidate (who was the candidate in 09 and got 30% back then) could just win this with that 30% repeat... just look at the Hope area, its not like their is no base for the NDP in this riding.

1 BCNDP, 1 BCC would be the best/most likely outcome for the NDP
2 BCNDP would benefit the BCL cause then they can play that split-the-vote-elects-a-dipper card

[lilTommy]

Meh, labelling mistake, honest enough... but what i find odd is that the reserve voted more for the Liberals and what i had figured was that BC natives tended to vote more for the NDP? guess you can't lump.

So over "you-know-where" hes saying Chilliwack-Hope (hatman, i think it used to be called Chilliwack-Kent) says the NDP will win it. And i've been reading some articules in the Province and Sun (Van based both of them) and its looking like an NDP-Con fight. I'm no sold that Chilliwack-Hope is going NDP... the history of this being a Socred area then Liberal, generally favouring the "free-enterprise" flavour of the moment leave very little room for the NDP to grow more than 30%-35% and thats a at general election. Will the Liberal vote even show up? if it does will they stick with Clark or go over to BCC? a couple other bloggers are saying its looking like a BCC win. If the BCCs win, there might be a few more BCL MLAs who are looking to bolt over (thats the rumours ive been reading).
 
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ - did a good review of the two by-elections

[lilTommy]

Good Point, i think a few others in the lower mainland like Abbotsford... mostly the wealthier south of fraser areas voted No... and those non-canucks, this "no" vote were talking about was the HST referendum last year that the gov't lost, it was probably one of the major indicators that this gov't was in some serious trouble.
So 25 ridings supported the HST, all of them BCL held ridings... i wonder if those will be among the ridings that the Liberals will still hold next time around? again, linking to your site Earl...

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2011/08/referendum-to-abolish-hst-fails-in-bc.html

Hmmm seems about right, most of the ridings are/have been won by the free marketing party. Except the 4 from/around Vancouver (Point Grey, False Creek, Fraserview, NVLonsdale) i see these are NDP pickups.

ANYWHO... the liberals are so unpopular i just don't see them winning CH, those who can't vote BCC or BCNDP i think just might stay home.

[lilTommy]

Well slap me stupid, i'm not so much shocked that the NDP won Chilliwack-Hope, i'm more so impressed that the voters who are traditionally conservative voted NDP by more that i had anticipated (35% was my high mark) rather then staying home. Vote splitting did lead to the NDP win in this riding, but common thats pretty much how the rest of the country votes and how we end up with tories winning in Ontario, so that knife cuts both ways. Its the system we have in place FPTP that creates these... anywho, this is BC and party loyalty is always second to defeating the NDP. I'd love to see the poll-by-poll results, where the NDP won in both Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope

This could be that demographics are slowly changing out this way in the Fraser; South of it has always been wealthier and more right wing, while North of it has been more middle class and more moderate-left. the farther out from Vancouver the cheaper the housing etc so we could see more and more of an outflux out to these communities of NDP-leaning voters into some traditional right-wing areas.

BCL are going to love this... but i still think they are dead in the water; they might be able to hold on to more ridings in the lowermainland but some of the much more conservative interior ridings might just go conservative. its the brand now, the NDP is not the old NDP of before teh 90s where they could play the extreme commies are coming card.

[lilTommy]

That why i want to see them poll maps! to see where the victories where and where the Liberals/Cons won/perform best.