Provincial by-elections in BC tomorrow!

[Hatman 🍁]

There will by by-elections held tomorrow in two BC ridings. Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam. The former is fairly conservative and the latter is more of a battle ground. However, with vote splitting, anything can happen tomorrow.

My analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/provincial-by-elections-in-bc.html

Maps:

Chilliwack-Hope


Port Moody-Coquitlam


Can the NDP win both? That's the question. Or can the Conservatives win both? Or the Liberals!?

[Hatman 🍁]

Trasolini was a Liberal? Nice. I think this shows that the NDP is beginning to attract former Liberals and star candidates.

Here is what the parties are looking at for results:

Liberal expectations are low going into these by-elections, but I have to think that it would be a huge set back if they lost both. Some are suggesting an NDP win in Chilliwack-Kent would be good news for the Liberals, as they would show the dangers of vote splitting. However, a third place finish in either race would be a disaster. A win for the Liberals would be holding on to just one seat.

For the NDP, they have to win at least one of the by-elections to keep their momentum going. Losing both wouldn't be very good for them. The same goes for the Conservatives, they have to win one, or come in 2nd in both (ahead of the Liberals) to show they are a credible right wing alternative to the Liberals. There are certainly high stakes in these two by-elections for all three parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

You appear to have the city of Chilliwack itself labelled as "Tzeachten" on your inset. Tzeachten, which I had never heard of until now, is just a small First Nation outside the city, and certainly not all those polls.

That's just part of Chilliwack. The inset was labelled as Tzeachten by Elections BC, so I assumed that's what the region was called: http://www3.elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/2009GE/CHH.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's obvious from their map than Tzeachten is only precincts 59, 60 and 61.
Also, it's quite balanced politically, as a reserve. Most are landslides for a party, in Canada.

Look at what the inset is labelled as.

Meh, labelling mistake, honest enough... but what i find odd is that the reserve voted more for the Liberals and what i had figured was that BC natives tended to vote more for the NDP? guess you can't lump.

So over "you-know-where" hes saying Chilliwack-Hope (hatman, i think it used to be called Chilliwack-Kent) says the NDP will win it. And i've been reading some articules in the Province and Sun (Van based both of them) and its looking like an NDP-Con fight. I'm no sold that Chilliwack-Hope is going NDP... the history of this being a Socred area then Liberal, generally favouring the "free-enterprise" flavour of the moment leave very little room for the NDP to grow more than 30%-35% and thats a at general election. Will the Liberal vote even show up? if it does will they stick with Clark or go over to BCC? a couple other bloggers are saying its looking like a BCC win. If the BCCs win, there might be a few more BCL MLAs who are looking to bolt over (thats the rumours ive been reading).
 
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ - did a good review of the two by-elections

Hmm, well it might go Conservative because it's a by-election, and people like to use it as a protest vote, but as I've said, it's one of the few ridings that voted No in the by-election, meaning they have some faith in the government.

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed the reserve voting Liberal, and I assumed it was because of non natives.

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW polls close at 8pm (11 Eastern).

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls now closed.

4/132 polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam

NDP: 131
Liberal: 32
Cons: 29 

[Hatman 🍁]

2/126 polls in from Chilliwack-Kent

NDP: 62
Cons: 37
Lib: 35
Lbtn: 1 

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is ahead in both, the Conservatives are in third in both.

Chilliwack-Hope    Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    2    0.43%
     John Martin    BC Conservative Party    118    25.32%
Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    212    45.49%
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    134    28.76%
7 of 126 ballot boxes reported

Port Moody-Coquitlam    Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    57    12.75%
     Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    102    22.82%
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    288    64.43%
9 of 132 ballot boxes reported

From tweets it appears that the NDP is expected to win Port Moody-Coquitlam. Those are some pretty good numbers, and there certainly aren't that many polls in that riding that usually go that overwhelmingly NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

I've seen enough. I declare the NDP elected in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the NDP will win Chilliwack-Kent too. Due to vote splitting, their lead there is larger:

Chilliwack-Hope    Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    31    1.19%
     John Martin    BC Conservative Party    668    25.58%
Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    1,190    45.58%
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    722    27.65%
33 of 126 ballot boxes reported

Port Moody-Coquitlam    Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    484    15.26%
     Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    1,038    32.73%
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    1,649    52.00%
47 of 132 ballot boxes reported

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh geez, I thought he just wanted me to post the results. Silly me. :/

Will the Tories finish 2nd in Chilliwack-Kent? That's the real  race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh geez, I thought he just wanted me to post the results. Silly me. :/

Will the Tories finish 2nd in Chilliwack-Kent? That's the real  race.

Indeed - that's the one I'm hoping for... I especially don't want a close NDP vs Liberal result there... that would be horrible!

Except, that's what I predicted. It would be horrible for the NDP though, as the Liberals will now have an argument against voting Conservative and the right won't fracture like the NDP needs to form power.

As it stands the NDP have 42%, the Liberals 31% and Tories 26%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?

Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?

Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.

Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.

[Hatman 🍁]

All the polls in from Port Moody-Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini    BC NDP    6,070    54.36% (+14.56)
Dennis Marsden    BC Liberal Party    3,377    30.24% (-21.91)
Christine N. Clarke    BC Conservative Party    1,720    15.40% (+15.40)
 

Yea sorry for not being clear. So I am guessing that means Dippers will be in control of BC come next election?

Not necessarily. They need a divided right, and people will see the third place finish for the Conservatives and think "maybe I shouldn't waste my vote on them".

But, as I kept saying Chilliwack-Hope is more friendly to the BC Liberals than most ridings, LOOK AT THE HST VOTE.

Is BC gerrymandered favorably liberals right now, meaning that Dippers would need to get 50% or even more to win? But even hypothetically if the right is not divided how does NDP win Nationally if they can't even win BC?

It's not that. There's just a slight majority of the BC population that will never vote NDP. The NDP can't get more than 50% of the vote, meaning they can't win in a 2 horse race. However, if the general election were held tonight, well...you'd be looking at an NDP landslide.

Why? It seems to me that Liberal's have pissed off every swing able group, and most voters forgot the ferry fiasco.

That's BC for you. The entire political history of the province has been about parties coming together to keep the NDP from power.

[Hatman 🍁]

All the polls in now from Chilliwack-Hope

Gwen O'Mahony    BC NDP    5,772    41.19% (+7.76)
Laurie Throness    BC Liberal Party    4,399    31.39% (-21.89)
John Martin    BC Conservative Party    3,548    25.32% (+18.22)
Lewis Clarke Dahlby    Libertarian    294    2.10% (+2.10)

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if the NDP would've won the riding without the town of Hope. That would be pretty huge.

[Hatman 🍁]

pro-free enterprise

I hate that term. The NDP is still pro-free enterprise. The correct term is "right wing" to describe the Liberals+Conservatives.

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Again, Chilliwack-Hope isn't the best riding for the BC Conservatives. How many times do I have to cite the HST referendum?

[Hatman 🍁]

Peace River is the best region for the Conservatives right now, I think. If an election were held right now, I would posit they would only win the 2 ridings there and nothing else.

[Hatman 🍁]

The information will appear on this page when it's ready: http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/resource-centre/reports/

BTW, did anyone see the poll that had the NDP at 50% in BC? Also, the BC Liberals are considering a name change.