FL-PPP: Obama up by 5

[DrScholl]

Obama 50%
Romney 45%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/obama-doing-well-in-florida.html

A ticket with Rubio made for a minus two point difference for Romney.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This throws barrels of cold water on the right-wingers who have been gloating about a supposed Romney comeback in recent days.

[King]

Unless Romney is breaking 60 in every GOP state, the national polls don't make any sense with all these swing state numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Unless Romney is breaking 60 in every GOP state, the national polls don't make any sense with all these swing state numbers.

That's because you have many flawed polls out there showing Romney ahead nationally:

* Rasmussen (a GOP hack with flawed state polls to get more subscribers)
* FOX News (a GOP hack news organisation that shows Romney ahead to get more viewers)
* Gallup (a flawed pollster that showed the GOP winning by 18 in 2010's Congressional ballot, when it actually only won by 6)

[Yank2133]

Outside of NC......Mitt is losing every swing state right?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He's losing NC too.

[tpfkaw]

And Kentucky, obviously.

[Tender Branson]

Outside of NC......Mitt is losing every swing state right?

There's an old Selzer poll from IA, in which Mitty leads by 2.

There's also a joke uni poll from VA that shows Romney ahead by 6 (others have Obama ahead by 5-10) and Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in NC (PPP has him down by 5).

[pbrower2a]

Unless Romney is breaking 60 in every GOP state, the national polls don't make any sense with all these swing state numbers.

Maybe 70 in any state that President Obama lost by more than 10%. If he is gaining or at least holding his own in some of the states that he lost barely (Arizona, Missouri)... he is probably close to even in Georgia if he is up 5% in Florida and North Carolina.


I don't see how that could happen. Somebody will poll a state in which President Obama did badly -- let us say Alabama -- and we shall see. He's not trending toward 50% in states that he won big.

[krazen1211]

This will of course move nicely once they move to a LV screen.

[ajb]

This will of course move nicely once they move to a LV screen.

Worked for President McCain.

[nkpatel1279]

Obama-D base states-states he is going to carry regardless of whether or not he reaches the 270ev threshold are (DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,CT-7,ME-4,WA-12,OR-7,NJ-14,NM-5,WI-10,and MN-10.)=211ev.
Obama-D is going to win MI-16,PA-20,NV-6,OH-18,and CO-9 before he wins FL-29.
If Obama-D is the projected winner in VA-13,OH-18 and FL-29- look for the Romney-R camp to concede.
Romney-R can win NC-15,CO-9,IA-6,NH-4,PA-20,NV-6,and MI-16 and still lose. 267ev. Romney-R is not going to win MN-10 and WI-10. Obama-D is more likely to win MI-16 and PA-20 before he wins FL-29,OH-18 and VA-13.  If Obama-D loses FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13. He will have to win CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4.

[Democratic Hawk]

This will of course move nicely once they move to a LV screen.

Haven't you noticed some recent polling has suggested that Obama voters are more for him by a considerable margin than Romney voters are for him. If that holds, Romney has problems

This poll sample is Democrat 41%; Republican 41%, so no Democratic bias among registered voters

2010 exits: Democratic 36%; Republican 36%; Independent 29%
2008 exits: Democratic 37%; Republican 34%; Independent 29%
2006 exits: Democratic 36%; Republican 39%; Independent 25%
2004 exits: Democratic 37%; Republican 41%; Independent 22%

So what makes you so certain, it will move nicely among LVs? 2010 wasn't a good Democratic year though FL had a competitive governors race

For now, at least, I'll take the president's 5% lead considering that he carried Florida by 3% in 2008

[DrScholl]

This will of course move nicely once they move to a LV screen.

It's too early for a likely voter screen and there wouldn't be that much disparity anyway. If Romney isn't leading, he just isn't leading.

[krazen1211]

This will of course move nicely once they move to a LV screen.

Worked for President McCain.

Worked for President Bush, yes.

Kerry was doing quite well in Florida polls 8 years ago.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/fl_polls.html

[krazen1211]

So what makes you so certain, it will move nicely among LVs? 2010 wasn't a good Democratic year though FL had a competitive governors race

For now, at least, I'll take the president's 5% lead considering that he carried Florida by 3% in 2008

Because it seems to happen frequently with ppp polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama has co nm nv locked with a shot at nh or oh with ia being the bellweather

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Unless Romney is breaking 60 in every GOP state, the national polls don't make any sense with all these swing state numbers.

I don't know how surprising it would be to find Romney out performing McCain states where McCain had under 60% but over 55% (except maybe Alaska); Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Nebraska and Kansas

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220120415108

[Chaddyr23]

Personally I feel the President is down in FL but I see the fundamentals in place for a win.