Electoral College or Popular Vote? (user search)
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process (Moderator: muon2)
  Electoral College or Popular Vote? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Whould you support Popular Vote elections for the US President?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Undecided
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 194

Author Topic: Electoral College or Popular Vote?  (Read 42305 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,998
Canada


WWW
« on: April 21, 2012, 01:51:21 PM »

If EVs were divided proportionally, this is what the results would've been for 2008:

   O   M   N
AL   4   5
AK   1   2
AZ   5   5
AR   2   4
CA   34   20   1
CO   5   4
CT   4   3
DE   2   1
DC   3
FL   14   13   
GA   7   8
HI   3   1
ID   1   3
IL   13   8
IN   6   5
IA   4   3
KS   3   3
KY   3   5
LA   4   5
ME   2   2
MD   6   4
MA   8   4
MI   10   7
MN   6   4
MS   3   3
MO   5   6
MT   1   2
NE   2   3
NV   3   2
NH   2   2
NJ   9   6
NM   3   2
NY   20   11
NC   8   7
ND   1   2
OH   10   10
OK   2   5
OR   4   3
PA   12   9
RI   3   1
SC   4   4
SD   1   2
TN   5   6
TX   15   19
UT   2   3
VT   2   1
VA   7   6
WA   6   5
WV   2   3
WI   6   4
WY   1   2
   289   248   1
   53.7   46.1   0.2
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,998
Canada


WWW
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2012, 11:19:40 PM »

In a close election, allocating the EVs proportionally by vote within each state actually tends to tilt things slightly towards the Republicans (relative to their showing in the popular vote), since they tend to do a bit better in smaller states, which have a bigger proportional bonus in the EC with the +2 EVs for senators.

For example, I think if you allocated the 2000 EVs by popular vote in each state, then Bush wins the electoral college more decisively (without the need for a recount), despite losing the popular vote nationwide.


Wrong. While you're right Bush would get more EVs, he only gets a plurality. By one. And it's thrown to the House:
   G   B   N
AL   4   5
AK   1   2
AZ   4   4
AR   3   3
CA   29   23   2   
CO   3   4   1
CT   5   3
DE   2   1
DC   3
FL   12   12   1   
GA   6   7
HI   2   2
ID   1   3
IL   12   9    1
IN   5   7
IA   4   3
KS   2   4
KY   3   5
LA   4   5
ME   2   2
MD   6   4
MA   7   4   1
MI   9   8   1
MN   5   5
MS   3   4
MO   5   6
MT   1   2
NE   2   3
NV   2   2
NH   2   2
NJ   8   6   1
NM   3   2
NY   20   12   1
NC   6   8
ND   1   2
OH   10   10   1
OK   3   5
OR   3   3   1
PA   12   11
RI   3   1
SC   3   5
SD   1   2
TN   5   6
TX   12   19   1
UT   1   4
VT   2   1
VA   6   7
WA   6   5
WV   2   3
WI   5   5   1
WY   1   2
   262   263   13
   48.7   48.9   2.4
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