Religon, Race, and 2008 Election Results: Your County

[All Along The Watchtower]

What the title says, in a nutshell.


My County: Santa Clara County, CA

Religion:
  Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 43.25%
       Catholic Church (66%)
       Other (14%)
       Evangelical Denominations (12%)
       Mainline Denominations (8%)

Race:
    White Non-Hispanic Alone (38.4%)
    Asian alone (30.0%)
    Hispanic or Latino (25.7%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (2.4%)
    Two or more races (2.4%)

2008 Election Results:
   Obama: 69.45%
   McCain: 28.55%

Source: http://www.city-data.com/county/Santa_Clara_County-CA.html

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Mercer County, NJ

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 50.76%

• Catholic Church (61%)
• Other (26%)
• Muslim Estimate (7%)
• Presbyterian Church (6%)

Race:

• White Non-Hispanic Alone (58.4%)
• Black Non-Hispanic Alone (19.2%)
• Hispanic or Latino (12.8%)
• Asian Alone (7.8%)
• Two or More Races (1.3%)

2008 Election Results:

• Obama: 67.9%
• McCain: 31.6%

[TJ in Oregon]

College: Cuyahoga County, OH

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 57.81%

• Catholic Church (60%)
• Mainline Denominations (16%)
• Other (15%)
• Evangelical Denominations(9%)

Race:

• White Non-Hispanic Alone (63.5%)
• Black Non-Hispanic Alone (28.6%)
• Hispanic or Latino (4.3%)
• Asian Alone (2.3%)
• Two or More Races (1.1%)

2008 Election Results:

• Obama: 69.4%
• McCain: 30.3%

Home: Erie County, OH

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 53.50%

• Catholic Church (52%)
• Other (17%)
• Evangelical Lutheran Church of America (ELCA) (15%)
• United Church of Christ (10%)
• United Methodist Church (7%)

Race:

• White Non-Hispanic Alone (86.4%)
• Black Non-Hispanic Alone (8.4%)
• Hispanic or Latino (2.6%)
• Two or More Races (1.7%)
• Asian Alone (0.6%)

2008 Election Results:

• Obama: 56.6%
• McCain: 42.6%

[Torie]

Well, here is info on my precinct. As you can see, I was not the only Pub type in my precinct who voted for Obama (look at the governor partisan stats versus the Obama-McCain ones).  My precinct was probably close to the top 1% in the nation in swinging to Obama, and then away from the Dems in 2010 way back to the Bush 2004 numbers and then some.  I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

[Sbane]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

[CultureKing]

Thurston County, WA

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 27% (YUP, it's LOW)

    Catholic (31%)
    Pentecost (13%)
    Mormon (11%)
    Lutheran (6%)
    United Methodist (6%)
    Other (33%)


Race:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (81%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (3%)
    Hispanic or Latino (6%)
    Asian Alone (5%)
    Two or More Races (3%)
    Native American (1.5%)


2008 Election Results:

    Obama: 60.5%
    McCain: 38.6%

[Gass3268]

Dane County, WI

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 52.2%

    Catholic (53.3%)
    Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (22.1%)
    United Methodist (3.8%)
    United Church of Christ (2.5%)
    Other (18.3%)

Race:

    White Non-Hispanic Alone (84.4%)
    Hispanic or Latino (4.8%)
    Black Non-Hispanic Alone (4.3%)
    Asian Alone (4.2%)
    Two or More Races (2.0%)
   
2008 Election Results:

    Obama: 73.3%
    McCain: 26.0%

[Torie]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

Just my precinct.

[Sbane]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

Just my precinct.

So your precinct voted by 30 points for Whitman. And I am assuming the vote for Boxer was similar. That is the worst case scenario for Obama. If he lost by that margin, he would be losing by more than 3-4 points nationwide and even with tough economic conditions I don't see him losing by more than that. In a more likely scenario, he wins by 3-4 nationwide, and loses your precinct by about 15 points, perhaps less. The war on women is not completely hyperbole.

[Indy Texas]

College: McLennan County, Texas

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 60.51%
Southern Baptist (50%)
Other (19%)
Catholic (18%)
United Methodist (14%)

Race:
White Non-Hispanic Alone (61.0%)
Hispanic or Latino (21.5%)
Black Non-Hispanic Alone (14.6%)
Asian Alone (1.4%)
Two or More Races (1.1%)

2008 Election Results:
McCain: 61.9%
Obama: 37.9%

==========

Home: Harris County, Texas

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregation: 50.38%
Catholic (36%)
Southern Baptist (28%)
Other (26%)
United Methodist (10%)

Race:
Hispanic or Latino (38.4%)
White Non-Hispanic Alone (36.5%)
Black Non-Hispanic Alone (18.1%)
Asian Alone (5.6%)
Two or More Races (0.8%)

2008 Election Results:
Obama: 50.7%
McCain: 49.1%

[Torie]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

Just my precinct.

So your precinct voted by 30 points for Whitman. And I am assuming the vote for Boxer was similar. That is the worst case scenario for Obama. If he lost by that margin, he would be losing by more than 3-4 points nationwide and even with tough economic conditions I don't see him losing by more than that. In a more likely scenario, he wins by 3-4 nationwide, and loses your precinct by about 15 points, perhaps less. The war on women is not completely hyperbole.

I meant to get back to you on this sbane. No I am not predicting a Mittens landslide. It looks like a very tight election at the moment. What I was/am predicting, is that upper middle class centrist seculars  will trend heavily to Mittens. I think that is almost written in stone at this point. Mittens is not that threatening to that cohort on other issues (he's no Newt or Rick, etc., either in tone or substance really), is trusted on economic issues, and Obama has gone populist - almost demagogically so. That is all totally toxic to this cohort, along with his performance on economics, and decisions in connection therewith, which have belly flopped.

We shall see how my prediction plays out.

[Frodo]

Arlington County, VA

Percentage of people affiliated with a religious congregation: 29.2% (in direct contrast to the 50.2% national average)

Religious breakdown (by adherents)

Catholics: 48%
Episcopalians: 8%
Methodists: 11%
Southern Baptists: 7%
Evangelical Lutherans: 5%
Other: 20%

Race/Ethnicity:

White (non-Hispanic): 64%
Hispanic/Latino: 15.1%
Asians: 9.6%
Blacks: 8.5%
American Indian/Alaska native: 0.5%
Bi- or multi-racial:  3.7% (including yours truly)

2008 Presidential Vote breakdown:

Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Jr. (Dem):  71.7%
John McCain/Sarah Palin (Rep):  27.1%
Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle (Const):  0.11%
Bob Barr/Wayne Root (Libert): 0.44%
Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente (Green): 0.05%
Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez (Ind): 0.28%

[Sbane]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

Just my precinct.

So your precinct voted by 30 points for Whitman. And I am assuming the vote for Boxer was similar. That is the worst case scenario for Obama. If he lost by that margin, he would be losing by more than 3-4 points nationwide and even with tough economic conditions I don't see him losing by more than that. In a more likely scenario, he wins by 3-4 nationwide, and loses your precinct by about 15 points, perhaps less. The war on women is not completely hyperbole.

I meant to get back to you on this sbane. No I am not predicting a Mittens landslide. It looks like a very tight election at the moment. What I was/am predicting, is that upper middle class centrist seculars  will trend heavily to Mittens. I think that is almost written in stone at this point. Mittens is not that threatening to that cohort on other issues (he's no Newt or Rick, etc., either in tone or substance really), is trusted on economic issues, and Obama has gone populist - almost demagogically so. That is all totally toxic to this cohort, along with his performance on economics, and decisions in connection therewith, which have belly flopped.

We shall see how my prediction plays out.

Oh, I don't disagree with the trend but keep things in perspective. If say Obama wins by 3 points, a 4 point swing away from him, how much do you really think your area will swing away from him? More than 10-15 points? I don't think that is likely. Maybe if Mitt wins by 2-3 points, we might see a more epic swing, but even in that case I think the swing away from Obama will be more evenly spread out. I think it's highly unlikely there will be a 70-30 split against Obama in your precinct or city.

[Torie]

My precinct is pretty uniform. The rich who like to spend on housing live behind a gate at the top of the hill with two way butt kicking views, one way being to the ocean down extremely dramatic Aliso Canyon, about an 800 foot drop (maybe about 30% of the precinct), the upper middle class lives on the next six streets going down the hill, one of which I live on (which you have seen), and about 10%-15% live in a frumpy tract down the hill across Highlands, in a little tract built in the 1970's, basically middle class with a lot of retirees who grew gray there. My precinct will trend more heavily to Mittens than the city of Laguna Niguel as a whole.  About 3-4 precincts in the city are considerably more upscale than the city as a whole, of which mine is one.

[Sbane]

Well, I was just going by the governor's vote (which will be very similar to the Boxer vote in your neck of the woods. I don't see Obama doing worse than that, and if he is doing as bad as that, he has lost by at least 3-4 points. While the polls do point to a snapback among the rich secularites, it's not going to be THAT much. And if it is, Obama is way f'ed and we might as well start speculating about 2016.

[Torie]

Well, I was just going by the governor's vote (which will be very similar to the Boxer vote in your neck of the woods. I don't see Obama doing worse than that, and if he is doing as bad as that, he has lost by at least 3-4 points. While the polls do point to a snapback among the rich secularites, it's not going to be THAT much. And if it is, Obama is way f'ed and we might as well start speculating about 2016.

My strong surmise, is that in my precinct Obama at the moment is considerably less popular than Jerry Brown was on election day 2010, or for that matter Boxer, both of which had quite flawed opponents to boot. We shall see. I know four votes that are going to flip from Brown to Mittens right on my street, by my neighbors on one side to the north (Jewish olds), and two doors down on the other (and this all without my "help"). My neighbors immediately next door to the south are Indian and strong Pubs, who never vote for the "socialist" party, so no trend is available out of them.

[Brittain33]

Torie, how much did your area swing from '04 to '08? It was pretty dramatic and ripe for an equally large correction, right?

[Torie]

Torie, how much did your area swing from '04 to '08? It was pretty dramatic and ripe for an equally large correction, right?

Well this is interesting. My precinct trended Dem in 2008 at about the Orange County average, and then snapped back to 2004 about 2 points more than the county (the county as a whole just went back in 2010 to the 2004 figures more or less), so that in 2010 the Torie hood voted more GOP than in 2004.  In the Torie city, LN is more volatile, and trended more Dem than the county, and then snapped back so much in 2010 that it now votes more GOP than my precinct - particularly in the Senate race, where Laguna Niguel went into Fiorina outer space, breaking the surly bonds of earth's gravity, and the only issue left is whether the LN Fiorina charged mass will remain tied to the gravitational pull of the sun's solar system or just keep going until it's finally corralled by the pull of  another star.

I wonder if my precinct is a tad more Jewish than the LN city as a whole (because it's richer and far more rug rat free - those views make the cost per square foot of housing disgustingly high, and when you have rug rats, the more square feet the better - screw the views), which propped up the Boxer vote a tad. Just a wild thought. I would need to check out the other uber-bourgeoise LN precincts to see if that thought has any potential merit at all, and I don't propose to do that. It's a pain in the butt for reasons I won't bore you with.

In short, my territory is just overall getting deeper red - at least from a Bush 2004 baseline.

The issue is whether in 2012 there will be a clear secular centrist upper middle class breakout of rather massive proportions, which will break the mold from the above referenced chart, because yes, at least for my precinct, I am "predicting" a GOP PVI of say 20%, which means that the Torie hood will break not only break out of earth's gravity, and that of the solar system, but also from the galaxy, wandering and wandering until it finds another "galaxial"  home. And if it goes in the "wrong" direction with this kind of velocity, since the Milky Way is rather close to the edge of the universe, the hood may never hook up with another gravitational system ever again.

Daunting stuff! I may be out rather far on the limb, but hey, high wire acts are fun!

CC: sbane

[Sbane]

That's interesting but I don't see any reason why the trend will continue. If anything, if Obama wins it will be due to some of this demographic coming back to him, as well as more union and working class types across the north (see Ohio). If they don't, he will lose. But let's say he loses by 7 points, which was the GOP advantage in 2010, he would still only lose by 30 points in your precinct and a bit more in LN assuming no trend from 2010. Even if there is a trend towards the Republicans in 2012 in your hood, it will be hard to get to a 40 point advantage. Anyways it won't happen. Feel free to dig this up in November if you want.

[Smash255]

Nassau County, NY

Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregations: 76.00%

Catholic 68%
Other 23.1%
Evangelical Lutheran Church of America 1.9%
Methodist 1.7%
Episcopal 1.6%
Muslim 1.1%
Greek Orthodox 0.8%
Lutheran 0.6%
Presbyterian 0.5%
Assemblies of God 0.3%

White Non-Hispanic Alone 65.5%
Hispanic 14.6%
African American 11.1% (Alone 10.5%)
Asian 8.5%  (Alone 7.6%)
Two or More Races 2.4%

Obama 53.84%
McCain 45.43%

[All Along The Watchtower]

That's interesting but I don't see any reason why the trend will continue. If anything, if Obama wins it will be due to some of this demographic coming back to him, as well as more union and working class types across the north (see Ohio). If they don't, he will lose. But let's say he loses by 7 points, which was the GOP advantage in 2010, he would still only lose by 30 points in your precinct and a bit more in LN assuming no trend from 2010. Even if there is a trend towards the Republicans in 2012 in your hood, it will be hard to get to a 40 point advantage. Anyways it won't happen. Feel free to dig this up in November if you want.

On this subject, I do wonder how many unionized workers will vote for Obama in 2012 compared to 2008. Didn't McCain win around 40% of them?

[Bacon King]

Barrow County, GA

Race:

• White Non-Hispanic Alone (77.3%)
• Black Non-Hispanic Alone (11.2%)
• Hispanic or Latino (7.2%)
• Asian alone (3.1%)
• Two or more races (1.0%)

Religion:
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregations: 33.74%

• Evangelical Denominations 62.6%
• Mainline Protestant Denominations 30.4%
• Catholic Church 4.5%
• Other Denominations 2.4% (this is the LDS church plus nine Baha'i adherents that apparently live in the county)

Largest denominations:

• Southern Baptist Convention 49.6%
• United Methodist Church 22.4%
• Christian Churches and Churches of Christ 6.8%
• Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) 5.9%

2008 Election Results:

• McCain (Republican): 72.5%
• Obama (Democratic): 27.4%

Orleans Parish, Louisiana (where I lived during the 2008 election)
 
Race

• Black alone 61.2%
• White alone 29.8%
• Hispanic 4.7%
• Asian alone 3.0%
• Two or more races 0.8%
• Other race alone 0.3%
• American Indian alone 0.1%

Religion
Percentage of population affiliated with a religious congregations: 44.13%

• Catholic Church 63.8%
• Evangelical Denominations 18.5%
• Maineline Protestant Denominations 11.0%
• Orthodox Denominations 0.3%
• Other Denominations 6.3%

Largest Denominations

• Catholic Church 63.8%
• Southern Baptist Convention 13.0%
• United Methodist Church 5.2%
• Episcopal Church 2.9%

2008 Election Results

• Barack Obama 79.4%
• John McCain 19.1%
• Cynthia McKinney 0.7%
• Ron Paul 0.4%
• Ralph Nader 0.3%
• Chuck Baldwin 0.1%

That's interesting but I don't see any reason why the trend will continue. If anything, if Obama wins it will be due to some of this demographic coming back to him, as well as more union and working class types across the north (see Ohio). If they don't, he will lose. But let's say he loses by 7 points, which was the GOP advantage in 2010, he would still only lose by 30 points in your precinct and a bit more in LN assuming no trend from 2010. Even if there is a trend towards the Republicans in 2012 in your hood, it will be hard to get to a 40 point advantage. Anyways it won't happen. Feel free to dig this up in November if you want.

On this subject, I do wonder how many unionized workers will vote for Obama in 2012 compared to 2008. Didn't McCain win around 40% of them?

Union members split 67-30 in favor of Obama in 2008. I see him improving that number by a few points, maybe: Romney's certainly a less hospitable candidate for union members than McCain was, and Republican governors in swing states have been engendering a lot of hostility from organized labor recently. However, you have to figure that Obama has a ceiling of 75% or so due to the union members who vote Republican for religious, social, or other non-economic reasons.