Religon, Race, and 2008 Election Results: Your County

[Sbane]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

[Sbane]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

Just my precinct.

So your precinct voted by 30 points for Whitman. And I am assuming the vote for Boxer was similar. That is the worst case scenario for Obama. If he lost by that margin, he would be losing by more than 3-4 points nationwide and even with tough economic conditions I don't see him losing by more than that. In a more likely scenario, he wins by 3-4 nationwide, and loses your precinct by about 15 points, perhaps less. The war on women is not completely hyperbole.

[Sbane]

I suspect Obama will be wiped out this time - maybe as high as a 70-30 split.

So you're predicting a Mitt landslide, eh? Let's say Mitt wins by 2 points, still Obama won't lose Laguna Niguel by more than 25-30 points. And I'm being pretty generous here.

Just my precinct.

So your precinct voted by 30 points for Whitman. And I am assuming the vote for Boxer was similar. That is the worst case scenario for Obama. If he lost by that margin, he would be losing by more than 3-4 points nationwide and even with tough economic conditions I don't see him losing by more than that. In a more likely scenario, he wins by 3-4 nationwide, and loses your precinct by about 15 points, perhaps less. The war on women is not completely hyperbole.

I meant to get back to you on this sbane. No I am not predicting a Mittens landslide. It looks like a very tight election at the moment. What I was/am predicting, is that upper middle class centrist seculars  will trend heavily to Mittens. I think that is almost written in stone at this point. Mittens is not that threatening to that cohort on other issues (he's no Newt or Rick, etc., either in tone or substance really), is trusted on economic issues, and Obama has gone populist - almost demagogically so. That is all totally toxic to this cohort, along with his performance on economics, and decisions in connection therewith, which have belly flopped.

We shall see how my prediction plays out.

Oh, I don't disagree with the trend but keep things in perspective. If say Obama wins by 3 points, a 4 point swing away from him, how much do you really think your area will swing away from him? More than 10-15 points? I don't think that is likely. Maybe if Mitt wins by 2-3 points, we might see a more epic swing, but even in that case I think the swing away from Obama will be more evenly spread out. I think it's highly unlikely there will be a 70-30 split against Obama in your precinct or city.

[Sbane]

Well, I was just going by the governor's vote (which will be very similar to the Boxer vote in your neck of the woods. I don't see Obama doing worse than that, and if he is doing as bad as that, he has lost by at least 3-4 points. While the polls do point to a snapback among the rich secularites, it's not going to be THAT much. And if it is, Obama is way f'ed and we might as well start speculating about 2016.

[Sbane]

That's interesting but I don't see any reason why the trend will continue. If anything, if Obama wins it will be due to some of this demographic coming back to him, as well as more union and working class types across the north (see Ohio). If they don't, he will lose. But let's say he loses by 7 points, which was the GOP advantage in 2010, he would still only lose by 30 points in your precinct and a bit more in LN assuming no trend from 2010. Even if there is a trend towards the Republicans in 2012 in your hood, it will be hard to get to a 40 point advantage. Anyways it won't happen. Feel free to dig this up in November if you want.