The Kerry Problem

[NHI]

I would like people's input on a potential timeline I am thinking about. I've realized it's difficult to construct a timeline that takes place four-five from now, so I'm looking to do something in the past. Of the choices I've listed please select your choice, and if you feel so inclined please leave your comments as well.

Thank you.


Option 1: Kerry wins Ohio, thus the Presidency in 2004, despite losing the popular to Pres. Bush. Kerry's presidency is a tumultuous one; as the economy weakens and the war in Afghanistan rages on Kerry looks to face a tough reelection and faces a primary challenge in the 2008 Presidential Primary. Who the candidate is yet to be determined.

Option 3: George H.W. Bush narrowly wins reelection in 1992, thus cementing Republican Rule for 16 years. In 1996 Bill Clinton announces his intentions to run again, but faces a strong opposition from the Democratic Base.

[NHI]

Option 1: Kerry wins Ohio, thus the Presidency in 2004, despite losing the popular to Pres. Bush. Kerry's presidency is a tumultuous one; as the economy weakens and the war in Afghanistan rages on Kerry looks to face a tough reelection and faces a primary challenge in the 2008 Presidential Primary. Who the candidate is yet to be determined.

Option 3: George H.W. Bush narrowly wins reelection in 1992, thus cementing Republican Rule for 16 years. In 1996 Bill Clinton announces his intentions to run again, but faces a strong opposition from the Democratic Base.

In regards to a McCain timeline, would you still like to see Palin as Vice President, or another option?

[NHI]

The choice is going to be option 1: Kerry's Primary Challenge in 2008. Timeline coming soon.

[NHI]

The choice is going to be option 1: Kerry's Primary Challenge in 2008. Timeline coming soon.

Ok, I was hoping for a Condi Rice run. That would have been interesting.

Maybe a future timeline...

[NHI]

Kerry Elected President!

3:40 AM

We can now make a projection for the Presidency. We are calling the state of Ohio for Sen. John Kerry. He will be the 44th President of The United States.

D: 49.99%

R: 49.63%

D: 2,876,176
R: 2,859,768

Quite a turn of event from four years ago. Tonight Pres. George Bush the winner of the electoral vote in 2000, wins the popular vote by a little over 3 million votes, but loses the electoral college to Kerry.

A triumphant Kerry on Election Night 2004.

Kerry/Edwards: 272 48.33%

Bush/Cheney: 266 50.68%

2006:

The Democrat's hopes to reestablishing their dominance in American politics seemed to be lost by the end of the 2006. The Republicans had picked up more seats in Congress and President Kerry seemed to be standing on a sinking ship. His own party was at a loss. The War in Iraq still raged on and the War in Afghanistan continued with a surged, started in early 2006.

Pres. Kerry briefs the press.

The President's approval ratings continued to plummet as 2006 dragged on. Any attempt to grease the wheels of government seemed to be dashed, as Kerry was blocked by Republicans and Democrats who seemed unenthusiastic about some of his approaches.

Health Care reform was discussed by Kennedy and event brought into committee, but Kerry refused to back it up, seeing the political realities. "It can't be done, not now."

Having been elected without winning the popular vote Kerry's Presidency was mired from the start. The public remained largely divided and the consensus became that it did not matter who governed the country.

"We're in such a hole right now, it's going to take a long time to dig out, but we cannot embrace the Democratic ideas and philosophies. We did in fact win the election" Sen. Barack CObama.

The freshmen's senator's comment signaled the first sign of dissent within the Democratic Party, and following the midterms, when Kerry's approval rating dropped to 41% the speculation began about replacing Kerry in 2004.

Kerry remained determined to run in 2008.

While the National Democratic Committee remained mum on the President's continued slide, grassroots organizations began pushing for the entrance of a primary challenge to Pres. Kerry. The names included: Howard Dean, Dennis Kuchinich, and Barack Obama.

[NHI]

In early 2007 Fred Thompson became the first Republican to enter the race to challenge John Kerry for reelection. The field was still unsettled, as it remained unclear whether or not former Pres. George Bush would enter the race and challenge Kerry in a rematch.

Other possibile candidates included Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Sen. John Sununu of New Hampshire, and Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina. Romney was first candidate to announce he would not challenge Kerry in 2008.

Following Romney's exit, Elizabeth Dole declared she would be a candidate for President in 2008.

"It's time to make our do-nothing President a one termer and get a Republican back in the White House."

Dole's phrase of 'do-nothing' caught on and continued to define the public perception of Kerry. Though Thompson and Dole were two top tier candidates, the Republican base and establishment still wondered if Bush would run again.

"Clearly there is a longing for someone else to enter the race, and Pres. Bush is that candidate. Like Grover Cleveland, he lost the electoral college in his reelection and then came back and won again."

Bush v. Kerry:

Bush: 48%

Kerry: 45%

A surprise entrance was Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who declared his candidacy is opposition to both the Democrat and Republican establishments. [/i]

"It's time to reaffirm liberty and constitutional principles in this country. Both parties have ignored them, as evident by two wars and the passage of laws that erode our civil liberties."

Republican Nomination:

Other: 50%

Dole: 22%

Thompson: 20%

Paul: 7%

Finally the answer came in April of 2007. To a large crowd in Austin, TX former Pres. George Bush announced his campaign to run for President in 2008.

Bush announces his campaign for his third White House run.

"My fellow citizens. Our country is in trouble. We have an economy that is teetering on the brink of recession, a misguided effort by this president to lead our nation in a time of war. Our spirt as Americans has been broken and we watch as we fall behind, some even saying that our nation's best days are behind us. I know the sacrifice and the challenges that lie ahead, but for one more time, for America's sake, my fellow citizens I ask you to stand with me."

Republican Nomination:

Bush: 59%

Dole: 17%

Thompson: 14%

Paul: 9%

Bush rose to the top of the pack and following his entrance, both Dole and Thompson ended their campaigns and endorsed Bush for the nomination. Paul however remained in the race, running a more libertarian center campaign then Bush's.

"The American people rejected him four years, why would he be reelected?" -- Ron Paul.

Bush v. Kerry:

Bush: 48%

Kerry: 44%

Kerry Approval Rating:

Approval: 39%

Disapprove: 53%

[NHI]

President Kerry's Cabinet:

Pres. John Kerry
Vice Pres. John Edwards

Sec. of State: Joe Biden
Sec. of Treasury: Dick Gephardt
Sec. of Defense: Wesley Clark: (2005-2007), Leon Pannetta: (2007-)
Attorney General: Eric Holder
Sec. of Interior: Ken Salazar
Sec. of Agriculture: Tom Vislack
Sec. of Commerce: Bill Bradley
Sec. of Labor: Carol Moseley Braun
Sec. of Health and Human Services: Howard Dean: (2005-2005), Tom Daschle: (2005-)
Sec. of Housing and Urban Development: Shuan Donovan
Sec. of Transportation: Ray Lahood
Sec. of Energy: Arne Duncan
Sec. of Education: Jeanne Shaheen
Sec. of Veteran's Affairs: Carol Shea-Porter
Sec. of Homeland Security: Janet Napolitano

[NHI]

The Democrats' Unraveling

By the summer of 2007 the liberal wing of the Democratic Party finally broke, and as Kerry's approval ratings hit a search began for a replacement for him on the Democratic Ticket.

"We're looking at the first time since Carter in 1980, that an incumbent is being challenged by his own party, the questions remain who's up to it?" -- Chris Matthews.

Howard Dean's name rose to the top of the list. He has built a strong following in 2004, and was seen as the future of the Democratic Party, but his famous "Dean Scream" seemed to cripple his possible bid. Another downside was his short tenure as Sec. of Health and Human Services in the Kerry Administration.

"Kerry is still the incumbent and a challenger is going to have to be someone who is willing to ruffle the feather." -- Alan Colmes.

Dennis Kucinich announced his intentions to challenge Kerry for nomination, but Kucinich's following was as strong, when compared to Kennedy's challenge of Kerry in 1980. The Senator from Massachusetts stood by his friend and President, but privately had his frustrations over the President's tenure.

With Dean refusing to enter the race, and only Kucinich as the challenger to Kerry, it seemed that his renomination was assured. However, the freshman Senator from Illinois, who rose to stardom as the keynote speaker at the Democrat's Convention in 2004, announced to a large crowd in Springfield, Illinois that he was running for President of the United States."

"We've put up with the status quo for too long, and some might say, wait. Now is the not the time, and to that I respond. No, we can't wait. It must be done. Progress has never been brought forth by standing still in America, it has been brought forth by all of us, walking and working to aspire to that ideal vision of a more perfect union!"

Obama's surprise entrance shocked the political establishment, as well as the Kerry campaign, that immediately went into panic mode as the eloquent Democratic senator began calling Kerry out for prolonging the wars and failing to implement the ideas and direction needed for America. He instantly drew support from such prominent Democrats as Russ Feingold, Harry Reid and Bernie Sanders (who had contemplated challenging Kerry, but decided against it).

Hillary Clinton did not endorse Obama, but praised his entrance as a need to, "shake up the debate and bring in new discussions."

Democratic Nomination:

Kerry: 49%

Obama: 38%

Kucinich: 8%

The oratorical skill of Obama amazed the Kerry campaign, as well as his ability to fundraise, and draw on it mostly from the grassroots level.

"Let me finish tonight. Barack Obama, the first term senator from Illinois is clearly a force to be reckon with and could be the Democratic nominee in 2008. Democrats are furious with Kerry and are looking for someone to champion the liberal cause. He's young. He's exciting and he's shaking up the political establishment. Could 2008 be the year we break down racial barriers and chose hope over more of the same..." -- Chris Matthews.

Kerry refused to debate Obama leading up to the Iowa caucus, instead focusing on running a Rose Garden strategy.

"I'll be the nominee." -- Pres. Kerry in Dec. 2007.

Iowa:

Obama: 44.31%

Kerry: 41.33%

Kucinich: 13.36%

[NHI]

Iowa: Republican

George Bush swept the Iowa Caucuses with a landslide victory over challenger Ron Paul. Though some pundits were surprised that Paul did perform better than expected, the former President made no mention of his primary rival and instead focused on an optimistic message aimed at attacking his Democratic opponents.

Bush: 86.9%

Paul: 12.1%

"The last three years are not America's future. We can and will do much better."
]

Bush then focused his campaign on hopes for another landslide in New Hampshire, while Pres. Kerry looked to revive his campaign by winning the Granite State.

"The campaign went into panic mode after Iowa. No one took Obama seriously." --  Campaign Manager, Mary Beth Cahill.

Obama's triumphant victory in Iowa. "Change begins to tonight for America!"

Delegates: Republicans

Bush: 34

Paul: 0

Delegates: Democrats:

Obama: 19

Kerry: 16

Kucinich: 10

Going into New Hampshire, Bush campaigned as the presumptive nominee, while Obama challenged Kerry to a debate. The Kerry campaigned once more refused a debate, and hoped that to have a home court advantage with New Hampshire, but going out of Iowa, Obama led Kerry by more than fifteen points.

Kerry, the night before the primary. The polls showed him down by seven.

The New Hampshire Primary produced another solid win for George Bush, though once again Ron Paul performed better than expected. Unlike Iowa where Bush trounced him by 74 points, in New Hampshire the margin was much smaller, which enthused the Paul supporters as the campaign carried on.

New Hampshire:

Bush: 64.9%

[color=yellow[/color]Paul: 33.7%

Delegates: Republicans:

Bush: 44

Paul: 2

The Democratic race was not decided as quickly. Throughout the time, Kerry and Obama traded spots for first, until finally at 11:15, PM, Pres. Kerry was declared the winner; albeit narrowly.

Kerry: 46.8%

Obama: 45.6%

Kucinich: 6.6%

Delegates: Democrats:

Kerry: 29

Obama: 28

Kucinich: 10

With New Hampshire now decided the campaign moved into Michigan, where Obama hoped to reestablish his credibility as something other than an Iowa one shot wonder, and Bush looked to drive his only opponent from the race.

Kucinich endorses Obama.

Following his loss in New Hampshire, Kucinich dropped out of the race and endorsed Obama for the nomination, citing him as the real Democrat in the way, and a champion of progressive causes. "He will remake America right, in the vein of Kennedy, Roosevelt and Johnson. This is the man we need!"

Obama went onto win the Nevada Caucuses following New Hampshire, which hurt Kerry going into South Carolina. Bush would go onto win Michigan and Nevada.

Nevada: Democrat

Obama: 50.5%

Kerry: 48.2%

Nevada: Republican

Bush: 84.7%

Paul: 14.3%

Michigan: Republican:

Bush: 89.9%

Paul: 9.1%

Delegates: Republican

Bush: 138

Paul: 2

Delegates: Democrats

Obama: 41

Kerry: 41

Coming up: The South Carolina Primary

[NHI]

What happened to Liddy? 

She ended her bid and endorsed Bush once he entered the race.

[NHI]

Obama's interview on Meet The Press.

Leading up to the Michigan Primary, Obama sat down for an interview with Tim Russert where he continued to hammer home his attack on John Kerry.

Q. Will you support, without question, Pres. Kerry if he is the nominee?

A. Yes. I have made that very clear, Tim. However, I do believe that I'll end up winning the nomination, on the basis that I am offering a very different path than what Pres. Kerry has offered the last three years. I think the reason people have been drawn to my campaign and are supporting us is because one I have a very different vision and two, Pres. Kerry continues to remain detached from the actual work of campaigning. If he wants to be renominated, then he should be engaging with the public more than he has done in the past.

Q. There have been those who have said you've run an almost scorched earth campaign, and these comments come from not just Democrats, but Republicans. Do you regret any of your ads, especially the one where you criticized Kerry's military service?

A. Tim, my campaign is not responsible for that ad. Other groups have focused on it, and that is their choice. My opposition to the President renomination is simple. He hasn't lived up to what he said he would.

Q. Do you think this in-fighting will hurt the Democrats and whoever the nominee is in November against Pres. Bush? I say this, as in 1980 when Ted Kennedy challenged Pres. Jimmy Carter, the campaign was destructive for the Democrats and as you know, Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan.

A. I'm not worried about our party. We'll be united.

Obama led Kerry going into Michigan, and as it became apparent that Kerry was going to lose the state the campaign had an immediate shakeup. Kerry's campaign manager was replaced with old Clinton loyalist Mark Penn who developed a plan to exploit Obama's inexperience and portray him as unelectable against George Bush.

"The Kerry campaign assumed from the start that the fact that he was President would secure him the nomination. Unlike the Jimmy Carter strategy, Kerry seemed to lack the aggressive strike to go after Obama. I came in and woke them up." -- Mark Penn in an except from the book, "GAME CHANGE: KERRY V. OBAMA

Michigan:

Obama: 55.9%

Kerry: 43.5%

Delegates: Democrats

Obama: 75

Kerry: 70

Following Obama's crushing win over Kerry in Michigan, some Democrats in the establishment who had stood by Kerry began to panic.

"It became clear that this was a guy to be reckon with." Sen. Joe Biden.

Going into South Carolina the Kerry campaign aggressively went after Obama, attacking him on his experience as well as his combative nature of attacking the President. While the experience angel seemed to help, it was not enough to swing the state in Kerry's favor and Obama went onto win and win big.

South Carolina: Democrats

Obama: 65.44%

Kerry: 33.56%

Delegates: Democrats

Obama: 104

Kerry: 82

The Obama win was in part helped by the large African American turnout, but it still illustrated the weakness of the Kerry campaign and the fact that Democrats were moving away from him and embracing Obama.

"If Kerry loses Florida then his campaign is finished. He needs a comeback." -- Chris Matthews.

South Carolina: Republican

Bush: 92.2%

Paul: 6.8%

Delegates: Republicans

Bush: 162

Paul: 2

Bush rode to another victory in South Carolina and continued his attack against Kerry, though with the results on the Democratic side, Karl Rove made the decision to begin a focus of attack on possible nominee Obama.

"It became obvious after South Carolina that Obama needed to be taken seriously and we treated him just as seriously, if not more so than the incumbent President." -- Karl Rove.

Florida Poll: Democrats

Obama: 49%

Kerry: 44%

Matchup: Obama v. Bush

Obama: 44%

Bush: 48%

Matchup: Kerry v. Bush

Kerry: 43%

Bush: 50%

Democratic Primary Map:

Obama

Kerry

Kerry Approval Rating:

Approve: 37%

Disapprove: 55%

"Kerry's in worse shape in many ways than Carter. At least with that campaign Democrats could bite their tongue and support him against Reagan. If Kerry does win this, then he'll be lucky to get ten percent Democratic turnout. The base wasn't excited by him last night and sure as hell won't be excited this time. He's really got no choice but to end it, in a Johnson-esque statement and endorse Obama. I mean the campaign can restaff and reorganize till they're blue in the face, but doing that and saying oh look we won New Hampshire by one point two percent, and my opponent has only won four states. The party is moving away from Kerry and the Clinton style of Democratic politics and embracing Obama. He is the future of the party. It's good for Republicans though in the end." -- Dick Morris.

"He served a full year in the US, before announcing his campaign. Is he really ready to be President?" -- Except from Kerry Ad airing in Florida.

Kerry's attempt to portray Obama as untried and inexperienced helped in Florida and he managed to eek out a narrow win over the Illinois Senator.

"Tonight we begin our comeback!" -- Pres. Kerry.

Florida: Democrat

Kerry: 49.78%

Obama: 48.65%

Delegates: Democrat

Obama: 192

Kerry: 179

Florida: Republican

Bush: 93.5%

Paul: 5.5%

Delegates: Republican

Bush: 219

Paul: 2

Bush's image received an incredible comeback as a result of the primary on the Democratic side.

With the Democrats still undecided over their nominee, Bush began to hone his general election message, as well as appear Presidential on the stump. Having served already as President the public consensus of him as a strong leader came back, and at each stop he made he made a continuous plea to the middle of America, citing the importance of unity. "We have been divided these last four years, but a house divided, as a great man once said, cannot stand. Let us stand together as one people, united and strong!"

With Kerry's win in Florida the focus shifted to Super Tuesday, where Obama needed to win big over the President and hopefully drive him out of the race. Kerry had only carried two states, and by narrow margins. He needed to continued to play-up Obama's inexperience, however the attack seemed to falter as Kerry headed into Super Tuesday.

A few days before Super Tuesday, Ron Paul, the sole challenger to George Bush ended his campaign, following six straight defeats. A lack of funding and still poor name recognition contributed to his campaign's demise. But in his concession for the nomination Paul did not endorse Bush, and seemed to leave the door open for a possible third party bid, either on independent or libertarian ticket.

"Our campaign ends here, but our cause and purpose goes on, because while we set out not with little chance of winning, we set out to educate the people and inform them of what is happening to this country, and that we, we the people with the Constitution at our backing have the power to change it!"

Paul bows out, but does not endorse Bush.

Bush Secures GOP Nod.

With Bush now the presumptive nominee, the focus began as to who would run with him on the ticket. Cheney, the former Vice President had ruled himself out as a candidate from the launch of Bush's campaign, which prompted speculation as to who the candidate would be. Immediately the media speculated a list of possible contenders:

Gov. Mitt Romney
Frm. Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Sen. Elizabeth Dole
Sen. John Sununu
Sen. John McCain
Frm. Gov. Mike Huckabee
Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Democratic Primary: Obama v. Kerry

Obama: 49%

Kerry: 44%

[NHI]

Super Tuesday: 2008

Obama: 960

Kerry: 896

Obama triumphed on Super Tuesday, winning all the important states, save for California.

Obama came out the winner in states and delegates after Super Tuesday, though the Kerry campaign touted their impressive comeback, but the momentum was with Obama's campaign and as February dragged on, the Obama campaign cemented their frontrunner statuses with wins in Louisiana, Nebraska, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Washington.

Delegates:

Obama: 1,064

Kerry: 953

As Obama crossed the threshold of 1000 delegates the media turned their focus to the all but certain prospect that Obama would be the Democratic Nominee. Kerry rebounded later in February with a win in the Maine caucuses, but Obama continued to plow on with win after win.

Delegates:

Obama: 1,195

Kerry: 1,073

March 4th, the "Second Super Tuesday" proved to be a day of the battlegrounds between Obama and Kerry.The focus remained on Ohio and Texas. Kerry was seen to need to win both.

Kerry easily took Rhode Island, while Obama took Vermont, but the focus remained on Ohio and Texas. Finally after a night of back and forth Kerry was declared the winner in Ohio, but ended up losing both the primary and caucus in Texas.

Delegates:

Obama: 1,382

Kerry: 1,256

"This is going to be one hell of a convention." -- Chris Matthews.

[NHI]

Why isn't McCain running?

I toyed with it, but decided to give Bush a second chance, though McCain will have a prominent role in upcoming updates.

[NHI]

The remainder of March produced two more Obama victories in Mississippi and Wyoming, adding even more delegates to the candidate's totals.

Delegates:

Obama: 1,411

Kerry: 1,272

"The problem for the President is that he is running out of states and delegates." -- John King.

"Aside from that he's lost the party. Barack Obama represent a new dawn for the Democratic Party, particularly those in the liberal base. He's going to be the nominee and I predict Kerry'll drop out and concede to Obama." -- Roland Martin.

The focus fell to the Pennsylvania primary where it was deemed that Kerry had a last chance to have a comeback.

A sign of the times. A rally for Kerry in Philadelphia.

Results: Pennsylvania

Obama: 58.59%

Kerry: 40.41%

Delegates:

Obama: 1,500

Kerry: 1,341

Obama claimed victory and the Kerry campaign went into lockdown. The following week Obama carried the caucuses in Guam and focused his energies on Indiana and North Carolina. Kerry seemed to withdraw from campaigning following his defeat in Pennsylvania, but instead of dropping out, the Kerry campaign's statement became, "The President is focused on governing and will be awaiting the returns on May 6th."

"We knew, at that moment we had won." -- David Axelrod.

Obama cruised to an overwhelming victory in North Carolina and trounced Kerry in Indiana. That night from a press conference in the White House, John Kerry, the incumbent President conceded the nomination to his Democratic challenger Barack Obama.

"The time has come for unity. We as a party cannot allow the failed policies of the past to be brought back onto the national stage. Therefore I am stepping aside and probably endorsing the man who will be the next President of the United States, Barack Obama." -- Pres. John Kerry.

"Kerry should have quit. He should have stepped aside after Pennsylvania or pulled a Lyndon Johnson. He lost the party and he hurt himself and the party in the process by engaging in a primary process where the deck was stacked against him." -- Rachel Maddow.

"It was question of the past or a question of history. The choice of history won, and rightfully so." -- Chris Matthews.

Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic Nominee.

Kerry Concedes, Obama's the nominee

"I congratulate Sen. Obama on his victory and look forward to the campaign in the fall." -- Former Pres. George W. Bush

Kerry Approval Rating:

Approve: 36%

Disapprove: 56%

Obama v. Bush

Obama: 43%

Bush: 48%

[NHI]

In mid May, in a surprise announcement George Bush announced his pick of Elizabeth Dole as his choice for Vice President. With Kerry officially out of the race, Bush took charge of the race and began to run as if he were the incumbent President.

The Pick: Elizabeth Dole

The Republican Ticket: Bush/Dole

"I would be honored to serve beside the man who will be our next President, George W. Bush... He won the popular vote by three million over the President. That is hardly a rejection of a President. Take a look at the Democratic Party. The incumbent President couldn't even win a nomination battle. The Democrats have had their time in the spotlight again and proven that they're just not ready for primetime. Let's send George Bush back to the White House in November!"

"The Bush/Dole ticket clearly represents the past, whereas Barack Obama is the future for America." -- David Axelrod.

In early polls Bush continued to lead Obama by as much as ten points. The freshmen senator who had shocked the political establishment by winning the nomination, now needed to find a seasoned pick for Vice President who would help offset the charges of him being inexperienced.

At the same time, Ron Paul, Republican challenger in the primary began stirring the pot of speculation that he might be forging a third party bid. On CNN's Larry King, former Governor of Minnesota Jesse Ventura applauded the idea of a Paul bid.

"I hope he runs! We can't afford to have George Bush back in the White House and I don't know enough about Barack Obama to make a sound judgement of whether or not he'd be a good President."

Ron Paul on Nightline, deals with the question of running as a third party..

"I never deal in absolutes, but who knows what will happen?"

When asked if he would seek the Libertarian Nomination, Paul replied, "I am not actively seeking it." The idea of a Paul third party ticket caused many Republicans to panic. His presence would split the Republican vote and give the election to Obama. However, other believed that Obama and Paul would effectively split the youth vote, allowing for a Bush win. A poll was conducted with Paul in the race, showed an essential dead heat between Bush and Obama.

2008 Poll:

Obama: 45%

Bush: 45%

Paul: 10%

A group of Paul supporters outside the Sheraton Hotel in Denver, Colorado at the start of the Libertarian Convention.

Paul declares his candidacy for the Libertarian nomination.

First Ballot: President
Ron Paul: 289 votes 46.53%
Bob Barr: 167 26.89%
Wayne Allan Root: 101 16.26%
Mike Gravel: 40 6.4%
Christine Smith: 21 3.3%
Mary Ruwart: 30.03%

Following the results, Gravel, Root, Smith and Ruwart all ended their bids and endorsed Ron Paul. Barr remained in the race and challenged Paul on the second ballot, but it was not contest.

Second Ballot: President
Ron Paul: 479 (75.55%)
Bob Barr: 155 (24.45%)

Ron Paul, the Libertarian Nominee for President.

The next phase shifted to the Vice Presidential selection. Bob Barr angled for Paul's endorsement of the spot and ultimately became the Libertarian nominee for Vice President, on the first ballot.

First Ballot: Vice President

Bob Barr: 300 (62.76%)

Wayne Allan Root: 178 (37.24%)

Ron Paul's entrance onto the Libertarian Ticket shocked the political establishment, making 2008 an even wilder yeah than imagined...

[NHI]

General Election: Poll
Bush: 45%
Obama: 43%
Paul: 11%

Bush campaigns.

Obama stumps in NH. "We can't afford to go back."

Paul on the trail. "We are dangerous to the status quo, and we're a threat because we stand for liberty and freedom, not falsities."

"Paul presented a unique dynamic, he attacked both major candidates and presented a difficult balance for Bush who wanted to focus on Obama, while also keep his party intact, and Obama who needed to focus his energy squarely on Bush." -- David Gergen, CNN.

"People underestimated Paul and the following he had amassed in the primary. He had a base of support, the question remained how big and how motivated." -- Chuck Todd, MSNBC

Battleground State: Polls

Ohio:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 45%
Paul: 10%

Florida:
Bush: 47%
Obama: 44%
Paul: 8%

New Hampshire:
Bush: 38%
Obama: 37%
Paul: 21%

Iowa:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 41%
Paul: 12%

New Mexico:
Obama: 43%
Bush: 43%
Paul: 10%

Colorado:
Obama: 45%
Bush: 45%
Paul: 7%

Vermont:
Obama: 50%
Bush 29%
Paul: 14%

Washington:
Obama: 39%
Bush: 35%
Paul: 18%

Maine:
Obama: 44%
Bush: 37%
Paul: 15%

Minnesota:
Obama: 48%
Bush: 39%
Paul: 7%

Michigan:
Bush: 45%
Obama: 44%
Paul: 8%

Pennsylvania:
Obama: 44%
Bush: 41%
Paul: 8%

Wisconsin:
Obama: 47%
Bush: 44%
Paul: 9%

Is Barack Obama ready to be President?

Yes: 43%
No: 53%

Is Ron Paul too old to be President?

Yes: 58%

No: 37%

Has your opinion changed of George Bush since he left office?

For the better: 49%
For the worse: 21%
No change: 27%

Pres. Kerry Approval Rating:

Approve: 35%

Disapprove: 56%

Is America better off than it was four years ago?

Yes: 33%
No: 62%

How do you trust on the economy? (Bush or Obama)

Bush: 52%

Obama: 44%

How do you trust on national security? (Bush or Obama)

Bush: 57%

Obama: 38%

As spring turned to summer and the conventions neared, Barack Obama prepared the announcement of his Vice Presidential pick. His shortlist included:

Hillary Clinton
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
Michael Bloomberg
Tim Kaine

[NHI]

I look forward to seeing how the presidency and the senate races turn out though. Dole is picked to save her from a tough senate campaign. What was the balance of power in the congress after 2006?

Equally divided. Republicans hold Congress and Senate is divided, with Edwards to break the tie.

[NHI]

"My fellow citizens I proudly accept your nomination for President...We've seen an erosion of our confidence these last four years. The policies pursued have stagnated our economy and weakened our resolve abroad...I would not have sought this office again, if I did not have a deep love for this country and belief that we can do better. The last four years are not America's destiny. A small detour and we'll right in November! I ask you one more time to stand with me. Stand with me for our children. Stand with me for our men and women in uniform. Stand with me for the businessmen and women. The workers, the families. Stand with me for America's future, and together let us begin anew!"

Going out of the Republican Bush saw an uptick in the polls and led Obama, but the question still lingered over how much damage Paul's campaign would cost him.

"We didn't want him in the debates. We didn't want his presence." -- Karl Rove. Excerpt from his memoir, "Courage and Conviction."

"Going out of that convention it seemed like they had a renomination of Bush. It's as if he was already President." -- David Gregory, Meet The Press.

Bush v. Obama v. Paul:

Bush: 47%

Obama: 39%

Paul: 12%

"The challenge that faces the GOP is the history factor. They are running against the first African American who has a shot at winning the White House, and out of guilt, our of a desire to start anew, out of history, people might vote for this guy." -- Chris Matthews

Following the Republican's convention, Obama announced the pick of his running mate: Wesley Clark.[/i]

Clark accepts the VP nomination.

"Now is not the time to retreat, it is the time to move forward!"

"The Republicans are running the same man, on the same platform, on the same ideas, on the same failed policies. Do we want to return to that? No. In America progress is never made by standing still. We move forward, that is the history of progress in the United States of America, and as President with your help I will help lead that charge."

Obama v. Bush v. Paul:

Bush: 44%

Obama: 43%

Paul: 11%

Bush: 249

Obama: 248

[NHI]

Paul on the stump.

"I don't honestly see a way that former President Bush has a leg to stand on. He supports increasing the wars, he's talked about bombing Iran, and wants to continue the same fiscal policies that have brought our economy to the state it's at. Then we have Barack Obama. He's a nice guy, but he doesn't have a plan to end the wars or return us to a sound monetary policy. Both men's policies want to grow the size of government and damage and remove our civil liberties! We're a threat, but not a dangerous one to the country, but to the establishment and to the status quo, because we represent real change, real hope and a fresh start!"

"No one took Paul seriously enough, but his support was real and untamed." -- Brit Hume

"Obama had the side of history, Bush had the side of the past, and Paul in many ways represented the future." -- Rachel Maddow.

The 2008 Election moved into the final phase: The Fall Campaign. With Obama and Bush tied in the polls both campaigns looked for a way to break ahead of the other. However, forces beyond their control went into effect on September 15th.

Nightmare on Wall Street.

The onset of the recession and financial crisis reshaped the race in ways no one could imagine. You had Kerry who was the President was preparing to unveil a series of bailouts. Obama's experience came into question. Bush was given some blame for the onset, and there you had Ron Paul who had been preaching this coming economic catastrophe from the start and he stood there not smug, but determined and ready." -- John Tate, Paul Campaign Manager.

"This is not a time to panic. Now is the time for cooler heads to prevail and for us to move forward in unison. Democrats and Republicans alike."

Obama's line, "This is not a time to panic." was seized on by the Bush campaign and they transformed it into a series of ads that played on Obama's lack of experience and questioned his ability to handle a crisis as President. As a result Obama saw a downturn in the polls, and Bush moved ahead, trumpeting, "We'll come through this crisis, so help me God!"

Bush v. Obama v. Paul

Bush: 47%

Obama: 39%

Paul: 12%

"This race is moving in Bush's favor because of his experience and readiness to do the job." -- Karl Rove on Hannity and Colmes.

Excerpts from the Presidential Debates:

"We've allowed for too much deregulation, policies started by President Bush during his tenure, allowed for the fat cats on Wall Street to run wild and bring this economy down. It's time to have a partnership between business and government when it comes to the economy." -- Barack Obama.

"Senator Obama, we can both agree that there needs to be accountability on Wall Street, but it has been Democrat policies that have led to the situation we're currently in." -- George W. Bush.

"This is the problem with this country today. Both parties have been allowed to dominate the issues, and yet they ultimately become one in the same. Democrats want more spending, so do Republicans. There's no difference. The fact is this whole problem we're in could be solved by auditing the Federal Reserve, having a sound currency and adhering to the Constitution of the United States! It tells us what we can and what we cannot do." -- Ron Paul

Going into Election day the polls showed a dead heat between Bush and Obama, with the wildcard being Paul, and how much of a spoiler he would play with both party's chances. The campaigns headed into Election day, unprepared for what was to come.

Bush v. Obama v. Paul:

Bush: 44%

Obama: 44%

Paul: 11%

Election Night:

Obama/Clark:

Bush/Dole:

Paul/Barr:

"Welcome to Election Night and what a night this will be. A three man race between Barack Obama, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican and Ron Paul the Libertarian. Bush looking to pull a Grover Cleveland and win the White House again after loosing the popular vote in his reelection in 2004. For Barack Obama this night is about history. Will he break through the racial barriers and become this nations' first African American President? And Ron Paul, the third party candidate. He's polling last in the polls, but his effect on this race is divided. Will he draw more votes from Democrats or Republicans?"

"And we have our first projection of the evening. Senator Barack Obama will carry the Democratic stronghold of Vermont.

Obama: 49.8%

Paul: 25.7%

Bush: 23.4%

Certainly the takeaway of this state is that Ron Paul is finishing second, ahead of Bush. Now this is still early and the numbers could change, but Paul at this point finishes second to Obama in Vermont, perhaps a sign of things to come?

Obama/Clark: 3

Bush/Dole: 0

Paul/Barr: 0

At this point we cannot make a projection in South Carolina. Should we make anything of this? Certainly this is troubling?"

"Bush is only ahead by three in South Carolina. It is early, but in a traditional Republican state he should be farther ahead, and the exit polls show a tighter race."

"Well Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief. Bush is the winner in Kentucky."

Bush: 47.6%

Obama: 39.2%

Paul: 12.2%

Bush/Dole: 8

Obama/Clark: 3

Paul/Barr: 0

[NHI]

"The polls have just closed in West Virginia and we cannot project a winner at this time. It is Bush with a narrow lead, but Obama is close."

"So what is this night? What are we going to say at this time tomorrow?"

"It's too early to make that judgement. Obama could win, he seems poised to do so, but Bush could very well pull the Cleveland strategy. You'll notice in the final days he has been playing ads linking Obama and Kerry; trying very much to create the perception that they are responsible entirely for the economic crisis."

States too close to call:
Indiana
North Carolina
Ohio
Georgia
Virginia
South Carolina
West Virginia

"Since we are still waiting for numbers, how would night be if Kerry were the Democratic nominee? He's sitting now on a 37 percent approval rating."

"I would say we'd still be in the same place. We forget but Bush is still seen as a polarizing figure in American politics."

"We can at this time project that George Bush has won Indiana, albeit narrowly."

"You know when Republicans can barley hold Indiana, there is a problem."

Bush: 49.0%

Obama: 40.5%

Paul: 9.5%

Bush/Dole: 19

Obama/Clark: 3

Paul/Barr: 0

8:00

"It is eight o'clock on the east coast and we have a series of projections to make at this time."

:For Pres-- Sen. Barack Obama, we project the states of: Maryland, Delaware, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois and the District of Columbia."

Obama: 50.0%

Bush: 39.6%

Paul: 9.0%

Obama: 50.4%

Bush: 39.2%

Paul: 9.0%

Obama: 52.4%

Bush: 37.2%

Paul: 9.4%

Obama: 50.4%

Bush: 39.2%

Paul: 9.0%

Obama: 54.4%

Bush: 35.0%

Paul: 9.6%

Obama: 70.4%

Bush: 18.4%

Paul: 10.2%

"For Mr. Bush, tonight we project the state of Oklahoma, another GOP favorite."

"Though it looks like Paul did some effect with Bush's numbers in the state. He won the state with over sixty percent four years ago and tonight is barely over fifty."

Bush: 51.1%

Obama: 36.0%

Paul: 12.9%

"We can also project that the former President has won Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi, so it looks like Ron Paul is not causing too much damage for the Republican ticket in traditional Republican states."

"The real question will be in the battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida."

Bush: 52.7%

Obama: 35.0%

Paul: 12.9%

Bush: 53.1%

Obama: 34.0%

Paul: 12.9%

Bush: 51.1%

Obama: 39.0%

Paul: 9.9%

Obama/Clark: 59

Bush/Dole: 52

Paul/Barr: 0

States too Close to call:

Missouri
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Florida
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
Ohio
Maine
Georgia
Pennsylvania

"We can now project that Bush has won West Virginia. West Virginia goes for Bush."

Bush: 48.1%

Obama: 42.0%

Paul: 8.9%

Obama/Clark: 59

Bush/Dole: 57

Paul/Barr: 0

"The two are neck and neck in the electoral vote, but a bunch of states still remain undecided, all of them, save for Pennsylvania, Maine and New Hampshire were carried by Mr. Bush."

"In Maine it is Obama with a lead, followed by and Paul in a distant third. New Hampshire it is quite the opposite. Bush has a narrow lead, followed by Obama and Paul."

New Hampshire:

Bush: 44.9%

Obama: 38.8%

Paul: 15.3%

"Save for Vermont, Paul has yet to crack the twenty percent mark, which illustrates either his support has been overestimated, or Vermont was a fluke state, because surely he should be doing better in New Hampshire."

"Well looking at the numbers in Vermont as we speak, it appears that Bush will finish second, with twenty-six percent of the vote and Paul with twenty-two percent."

"Looking at Ohio, the battleground state that decided the election for Kerry in 2004, is an essential tie tonight between Bush and Obama."

Ohio:

Obama: 47.0%

Bush: 46.6%

Paul: 5.4%

"We can now project that Obama wins Maine. The state of Maine has gone for Barack Obama."

Obama: 49.0%

Bush: 41.8%

Paul: 8.2%

Obama/Clark: 63

Bush/Dole: 57

Paul/Barr: 0

Georgia:

Bush: 44.5%

Obama: 42.9%

Paul: 11.0%

[NHI]

"We are back tonight, with another projection in the Presidential race. The state of South Carolina has gone for Mr Bush.

Bush: 47.0%

Obama: 42.4%

Paul: 9.6%

Bush/Dole: 65

Obama/Clark: 63

Paul/Barr:

"Bush now takes a small lead in the electoral vote, but still many states remain undecided."

"Bush needs Virginia and North Carolina at least. Florida looks pretty solid, but the previous two mentioned are critical to Bush if he has any chance to win the White House again."

"We have another projection to make: Bush will carry the state of Georgia."

"We should note that this is the home state of Ron Paul's running mate Bob Barr, but his presence on the ticket was not enough to swing the Republican stronghold in either direction."

Bush: 46.5%

Obama: 43.1%

Paul: 9.4%

Bush/Dole: 80

Obama/Clark: 63

Paul/Barr: 0

9:00

"It is nine o'clock here on the east coast and we have move projections to make: We can project that Senator Obama has won the state of Rhode Island, Minnesota, the state that hosted the Republican Convention, New York and New Jersey."

Obama: 51.9%

Bush: 37.4%

Paul: 9.7%

Obama: 50.9%

Bush: 34.2%

Paul: 13.9%

Obama: 52.8%

Bush: 36.6%

Paul: 9.6%

Obama: 51.9%

Bush: 37.4%

Paul: 9.7%

"For Bush we can project the state of Louisiana, the state of Texas, his home state and that of Ron Paul, Kansas and Nebraska, but we are only awarding him four of the five delegates at this time."

Bush: 51.0%

Obama: 38.5%

Paul: 9.5%

Bush: 52.5%

Obama: 32.8%

Paul: 13.7%

Bush: 50.5%

Obama: 39.1%

Paul: 9.4%

Bush: 49.5%

Obama: 38.1%

Paul: 11.4%

Bush/Dole: 133

Obama/Clark: 123

Paul/Clark: 0

"As we look to Colorado, the Dakotas, New Mexico and Arizona, we'll be able to see where Paul's real strength lies and if his presence is able to flip one of these states into the Obama' column tonight."

"You know thing we haven't discussed tonight is the Reverend Wright story and it's effect on the election."

"The Bush campaign did make an issue of it when it first broke back after the Convention, but it did seem to go away. The argument the Bush campaign has been pushing is can Obama be trusted. Is he ready."

"Hold that thought, two more projections for the Presidency: Arkansas and Missouri have finally gone for Bush tonight."

Bush: 46.5%

Obama: 45.1%

Paul: 7.4%

Bush: 48.5%

Obama: 41.1%

Paul: 9.4%

Bush/Dole: 150

Obama/Clark: 123

Paul/Clark: 0

"The Bush campaign can breathe a sign of relief tonight, especially with Missouri, though it was close. 46 to 45."

"The states we are watching now are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and New Mexico. These states hold the key to who will win the White House."

"We can now project that Sen. Obama has won the state of Pennsylvania."

Obama: 45.8%

Bush: 43.6%

Paul: 9.6%

Bush/Dole: 150

Obama/Clark: 144

Paul/Barr: 0

"That's a big one to fall tonight."

"Indeed, but I don't think it's enough to hurt the Bush campaign. You remember Republican have relentlessly tried to recapture Pennsylvania, after Bill Clinton won it in 1992, and to no avail. The states to watch are the ones we discussed, especially Ohio, which now is essentially tied."

Ohio:

Obama: 45.8%

Bush: 45.2%

Paul/Barr: 8.0%

"It's like four years ago, all over again."

"This is the battleground. Whoever wins it tonight will be the next President of the United States."

"And at this time we are projecting the state of Florida for Bush."

Bush: 47.5%

Obama: 44.1%

Paul: 6.4%

"The Bush name is strong there, so it is no surprise that he carried it again."

"Let's now look at the states still in question."

New Hampshire:

Bush: 42.8%

Obama: 40.9%

Paul: 15.3%

Virginia:

Bush: 46.8%

Obama: 42.4%

Paul: 9.8%

North Carolina:

Bush: 47.8%

Obama: 41.4%

Paul: 8.8%

Colorado:

Bush: 46.1%

Obama: 45.9%

Paul: 7.0%

Michigan:

Bush: 47.6%

Obama: 46.7%

Paul: 5.1%

"Obama looks poised to take Colorado, as it looks like we're seeing where Paul can cause some damage to the GOP."

"We can now project that Wisconsin will go for Obama. Repeat, Obama will win Wisconsin."

Obama: 45.9%

Bush: 43.4%

Paul: 9.7%

[NHI]

Bush/Dole: 177

Obama/Clark: 154

Paul/Barr: 0

"We're going to take a short break and --"

"Hold on, we can project that Bush will hold the state of North Carolina."

North Carolina

Bush: 48.8%

Obama: 42.5%

Paul: 7.7%

Bush/Dole: 192

Obama/Clark: 154

Paul/Barr: 0

[NHI]

"At this time we can finally project that Bush wins Virginia, albeit, by a narrow margin."

"Truly a nail biter there, I thought it might go for Obama tonight, but Bush holds onto it narrowly. That now puts his electoral total over 200 electoral votes, so things are starting to change."

"Yes, but all eyes remain on Ohio and Michigan it seems like too."

Bush: 45.4%

Obama: 43.8%

Paul: 9.8%

"And we can now project that Bush has won New Hampshire. New Hampshire votes for the Republican ticket, despite voting for Kerry in 2004."

Bush: 43.4%

Obama: 40.8%

Paul: 14.8%

"Another close one for Bush. I guess the question we have to ask ourselves is, are we seeing the start of a trend?"

"Yes and no. A lot is incumbent upon Ohio, which is leaning towards Obama, as well as some states in the west and northwest like Colorado, North Dakota and New Mexico."

"In those three states you've just mentioned, Paul seems to be having a strong effect, and thus is hurting Bush."

Bush/Dole: 209

Obama/Clark: 154

Paul/Barr: 0

"Looking at the map and some of the figures, Colorado could go either way at this point, and so could Montana."

"Hold that, we are now projecting the state of New Mexico for Obama. Sen. Obama will win the state of New Mexico."

Obama: 48.9%

Bush: 34.5%

Paul: 15.6%

"A needed win for Obama. So looking at the map how does he put together a winning set. Is Ohio part of it?"

"I think he needs Ohio, but he might be able to pull it off without it. Bush needs it, no Republican has won the White House without it."

"And we can now project, just to add that Bush has won Wyoming. There wasn't much concern, but Ron Paul did perform better than expected.

Bush: 52.4%

Obama: 29.8%

Paul: 16.8%

Too Close to Call:

Ohio:

Obama: 46.1%

Bush: 45.7%

Paul: 7.2%

Michigan:

Bush: 47.0%

Obama: 47.0%

Paul. 5.0%

Colorado:

Obama: 46.0%

Bush: 44.8%

Paul: 8.2%

Arizona:

Bush: 46.0%

Obama: 43.8%

Paul: 9.2%

Montana:

Obama: 44.1%

Bush: 43.4%

Paul: 11.5%

Iowa:

Obama: 47.9%

Bush: 42.6%

Paul: 8.5%

South Dakota:

Bush: 46.3%

Obama: 40.0%

Paul: 12.7%

"And we can now project that Republican stronghold of Utah will go for Bush."

Bush: 61.4%

Obama: 25.8%

Paul: 11.8%

Bush/Dole: 217

Obama/Clark: 159

Paul/Barr: 0

"And it appears we can make another major projection. Sen. Obama has won the state of Iowa, making this the second Bush state he has taken from 2004."

Obama: 48.0%

Bush: 41.9%

Paul: 9.1%

Bush/Dole: 217

Obama/Clark: 166

Paul/Barr: 0

[NHI]

"We project that Barack Obama has won the second congressional district in Nebraska."

Obama: 43.7%

Bush: 43.0%

Paul: 12.3%

"Certainly, no one saw that coming."

"I think as these western states continue to fall, we're going to see the impact of Paul's presence on the ballot. Especially in Colorado, Montana, Nevada and North Dakota."

"And it is apparent now that we can project Bush the winner in Arizona."

"I thought Obama might take it tonight."

Bush: 45.6%

Obama: 43.9%

Paul: 9.5%

"The three states I'm watching now are Ohio, Michigan and Colorado. The direction they go will be critical in who becomes the next President of the United States."

"Hold that thought, because we have a major projection to make. The AP is calling Ohio, other networks are calling for Ohio and based on our data we feel comfortable with the projection. We are now projecting that Barack Obama will win the state of Ohio."

"It's over."

Obama: 46.5%

Bush: 45.7%

Paul: 6.8%

Bush/Dole: 227

Obama/Clark: 187

Paul/Barr: 0

11:00

"And we now project the state of California and Hawaii for Obama."

Obama: 51.5%

Bush: 33.7%

Paul: 13.8%

Obama: 57.5%

Bush: 34.7%

Paul: 6.8%

Obama/Clark: 246

Bush/Dole: 227

Paul/Barr: 0

"Obama holds a small lead in the electoral vote, but states are still undecided. Namely, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Nevada and Michigan."

"The race is tightening in Colorado. I thought it might go for Obama, but it appears Bush is not giving up without a fight. Now with ninety three percent of the vote counted."

Colorado:

Obama: 45.5%

Bush: 45.2%

Paul: 8.3%

Nevada:

Bush: 43.7%

Obama: 42.1%

Paul: 13.2%

Idaho:

Bush: 38.0%

Paul: 30.8%

Obama 29.5%

"Quite an impressive margin for Paul in Idaho."

"Indeed, but we are projecting that state and the state of South Dakota for Bush."

Bush: 38.0%

Obama: 30.8%

Paul: 29.5%

Bush: 44.6%

Obama: 39.9%

Paul: 14.5%

Obama/Clark: 246

Bush/Dole: 234

Paul/Barr: 0

"We can now make another major projection. The state of Montana has been won by Barack Obama."

Obama: 44.5%

Bush: 43.9%

Paul: 10.6%

"And we can we call North Dakota for Bush. It was a tossup, but Bush wins it again tonight."

Bush: 39.6%

Obama: 35.9%

Paul: 23.5%

Obama/Clark: 249

Bush/Dole: 237

Paul/Barr: 0

"We can now project that Nevada will once again go for George W. Bush."

Bush: 44.0%

Obama: 42.9%

Paul: 12.9%

Obama/Clark: 249

Bush/Dole: 242

Paul/Barr: 0

12:25

"And so goes Oregon, for Barack Obama."

"That now puts him three delegates shy of becoming President-Elect of the United States."

"All the focus remains on Colorado and Michigan where the two candidates are essentially tied, with almost all of the vote counted."

"Are the reports true about both campaigns looking into recounts?"

"Not at this time."

Colorado:

Bush: 45.54%

Obama: 45.49%

Paul: 7.97%

Michigan:

Bush: 47.0%

Obama: 46.7%

Paul: 5.3%

[NHI]

"And so goes Oregon, for Barack Obama."

"That now puts him three delegates shy of becoming President-Elect of the United States."

Only if Washington is also projected.

I meant to put that. Washington was projected for Obama.