I'm curious why most people think Cravaack is a tossup, since the district didn't change much, it hasn't voted for any other Republicans since 1994 at least (and I don't mean for House, I mean for any office), Mitt Romney is an even worse candidate for it than McCain, and he hasn't done anything to endear himself to the area more. Unless they think the rather competitive DFL primary might cause some trouble.
Because the CD has only a .38% Dem PVI from a 2008 baseline, and Cravaack is the incumbent now. A reasonably competent incumbent gets about a 3% tailwind on average. So toss-up seems the right call.
I dont think the incumbency advantage means much these days. Look at 2010 when many strong incumbents went down.
