Dutch Government on the verge of falling.

[Insula Dei]

First on-line source in English I could find is from 3 weeks ago:

http://fride.org/blog/dutch-government-likely-to-fall-over-additional-cuts/

Today Wilders did walk away from the negotiating table, making a collapse of the government and early elections (possibly in September) very likely. I will enjoy the CDA getting what it so obviously deserves, but beyond that I think there are very few certainties if there were to be an election.

I suppose the VVD might well stay the largest party, but at the same time headed for the opposition as there seems a big desire to break with this government on the left and in the center. Together PvdA, SP, GL, and D66 should come close to a majority, I guess, as the CDA will literally bleed votes to the left. So, does any of our Dutch members know whether it's realistic for all those parties (and possibly the CU, PvdD or even the CDA) to work together?

Poll:

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/content.asp?targetid=621

[Insula Dei]

There's no need to stres just how awful this government was, I suppose. But it's still wildly comical that Wilders is blaming a 'Brussels imposed' limit of 3% on deficits for his decision to back away from the government: a 3% limit that the Dutch government itself helped force on the rest of the EU. I wonder why Wilders didn't think that problematic at the time.

About the CDA: it's really one of the most despicably hypocrite bunch of careerists in European politics. Recently a party commision decided that the CDA needed to position itself more to the centre of the political scene. On Dutch television one of the members of an important party organ was interviewed and asked whether he didn't think that claiming to be a 'mature, centrist' party wasn't incompatible with being part of one of the most right-wing governments in history. His answer was something like: 'Well, obviously it's going to be a hard sell'. That's the mentality of those people. The champion of them all just has to be Immigration Minister Gerd Leers though. Oh, I do hope the party gets absolutely destroyed.

[Insula Dei]

Wouldn't SP as the largest left-wing party create a potential sh**tstorm for forming a purely left-wing coalition?

I understand the SP is falling back as many of its voters return to the PvdA, which has recently elected a new leader (Diederik Samsom). Barring a disasterous campaign or Samsom turning out to have been a horrible pick, the PvdA should be the largest party of the left. The SP also looks like it could still lose some voters back to the PVV if Wilders manages to make those people forget why they abandoned him by running an especially populist campaign.

Disclaimer: all of this is just speculation by a casual bystander.

[Insula Dei]

Dutch immigration policies are now so strict that any further change in the direction Wilders would like is impossible without breaking International Treaties or opening up the Netherlands to persecution in Strassbourg. Several Asylum Seekers have burnt themselves as suicide-protest. The Netherlands deports underage girls who have spent most of their life there to Afghanistan,...

Rutte basically sold out immigrants in the Netherlands to Wilders so he could more effectively wield the Austerity Axe in other terrains (like, oh, foreign aid).  It was a truly despicable government, vile to the bone.

[Insula Dei]

Rutte has sold the VVD out to the PVV and the radical Christians of the SGP. That is really sad for a party that claims to be liberal.

Given that Wilders (as well as the seemingly-forgotten Rita Verdonk) were VVD to begin with, it hardly looks like that much of a sell-out.

Haha Rita Verdonk and that infamous little video!

She had the bad luck of pulling out at the wrong moment and in the wrong direction. Never understood why she didn't wind up in the PVV. Might have to do with Wilders being too close to Ayaan Hirsi Ali. I'm sure one of our Dutchmen knows. Trots Op Nederland still exists, google learns me, and now is one of those irrelevant parties with a disproportionally long wikipedia article.

Edit: Dutch political videos generally are a bit weird and ill-considered: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVx7-z1oC8Y

[Insula Dei]

Would Paars(+) be an option? How does the PvdA feel about the person Rutte?

[Insula Dei]

In contrast to Balkenende he is.

Paars will be the next government, that is almost a fact. The PVV will not be trusted again and the CDA is in huge trouble and needs time out op power. That will leave either Paars or a government with VVD and SP. And the latter is not realistic.

Well, strictly speaking, a VVD-SP coalition would also be Paars.

[Insula Dei]

Forging the iron while it's hot, eh?

Is it practically doable to throw together an election before early July? Aren't there any constitutional restraints on the earliest possible date for an election?

[Insula Dei]

Are there any feasible leadership candidates? Verhagen seems to be the de facto heart of the party, but I understand he doesn't want the job?

Maybe a September election could be a blessing to the CDA as a relatively unknown new leader may then have the time to properly distantiate himself a little from the party's course over the past 2 years and regain a bit of the base that left the party over it. On the other hand, just how credible would any such attempt be?

[Insula Dei]

I remember Eurlings' exit back in 2010. I do feel a bit bad for finding his relational troubles afterwards to be so inherently amusing.

You're on the centre-right, if I remember correctly, Freek. Are you intending to vote VVD?

[Insula Dei]

Urgh, remember now why I don't like GL under Sap. Stil, this at least means the PvdA's hands are clean.

[Insula Dei]

Does this mean the election is off?

No, this is just so there is a 'satisfactory' budget. One could even ask how much of what's been agreed will ever really be acted upon.