What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections? (user search)
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  What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: The most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections is a:
#1
Democratic House, Democratic Senate		  
#2
Republican House, Democratic Senate		  
#3
Democratic House, Republican Senate		  
#4
Republican House, Republican Senate		  
#5
Democratic House, 50/50 Split Senate		  
#6
Republican House, 50/50 Split Senate		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: What is the most likely result of the 2012 Congressional elections?  (Read 3310 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,547
« on: April 22, 2012, 03:24:48 PM »
Highly unlikely Dems retake the House (>10% at best), since there appears to be no wave, Senate and Presidency are closer to 50-50, slight edge to Dems.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,547
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2012, 11:13:23 PM »
Quote from: MilesC56 on April 25, 2012, 12:41:07 PM
Quote from: perdedor on April 23, 2012, 09:21:59 PM
Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.
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