France 2012: Official Results Thread

[big bad fab]

At noon, abstention is quite low:
71.7
against 68.8 in 2007
78.6 in 2002
77 in 1995
72.9 in 1988
74.1 in 1981

Theoretically, good news for Hollande and Mélenchon.

[big bad fab]

Fortunately, it's "only" overseas territories. But he will be trounced if it's the same in continental France

At least, I may be right on only one point: we are back in 1988.

[big bad fab]

I just voted ! Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen.

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really...

[big bad fab]

I just voted ! Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen.

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really...

What kind of precinct do you live in ?

Leftist suburbian in the West... "Kind", "PC" and all the stuff... This old "left christian" influence that I hate

[big bad fab]

I just voted ! Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen.

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really...

You actually meet other voters in your polling station? I envy you.

Turnout is high and this day seems to be plenty of life... I'm pretty impressed: almost as much as in 2007... Amazing, considering the results were obvious.

It'll be a great victory for the left... They can thank Sarkozy very, very much... Back in 2006, I hated Villepin because I thought he was able to kill the right for many years. Well, after all, Sarkozy has done it !

[big bad fab]

As usual...
But it's at a higher level everywhere.
Surprisingly low in Doubs and Côte d'Or. Of course higher in more blue-collar departments like Pas-de-Calais or Meurthe-et-Moselle.
Stronger than usual in Loir-et-Cher.

[big bad fab]

Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

The best result for Joly...

[big bad fab]

She wasn't so bad in alsace and Alpes-Maritimes, Hash. And she isn't very high in Nièvre, Loir-et-Cher, Indre, Orne.

Sure, from Lyon to Savoies, she wasn't good (but it was the same in Doubs and Côte d'Or).

[big bad fab]

She wasn't so bad in alsace and Alpes-Maritimes, Hash. And she isn't very high in Nièvre, Loir-et-Cher, Indre, Orne.

Sure, from Lyon to Savoies, she wasn't good (but it was the same in Doubs and Côte d'Or).

Daddy won 23% in Bas-Rhin and 23.5% in Haut-Rhin back in 02, and nearly 25% in 95. She's at 21 and 23% respectively. She's doing a bit less than 2% better than Daddy in 2002, so on a universal swing basis, she underperformed. Not that this surprises me one bit, I had already noted it in 2010. In the 06, Daddy took 26% in 02, she won 23.5%. Not surprising either, but still an underperformance.

Eure, otoh, is a nice result for her, just looking stuff over.

Oh sure: I was thinking of 2007, not of 2002 or 1995.

[big bad fab]

It will be interesting to compare Hollande's map with his own map in the PS primary and with maps of... Chirac

As a side note, seems as if Nièvre is "normalizing" in a way.

[big bad fab]

If anybody is interested, given that I have five days off, I can throw some constituency maps for each candidate together.

Oh yeah !

And please free the Official Thread now

[big bad fab]

Well, in the 2010 regionals and obviously the 2009 Euros, there are a ton of Green-voting municipalities in the Drome and Ardeche.

One would figure. Mélenchon got a lot of those votes this time round.

Think also about the numerous nuclear and chemical plants along the Rhône.

[big bad fab]

Great maps, Hash !

How "classical" they are in a way...
We aren't in 2007 any longer...

[big bad fab]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

[big bad fab]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

EDIT: and for all, a small article on my blog with some modest maps:
http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/geographie-electorale-simplifiee-du-1er-tour-lavenir-difficile-de-la-droite-lechec-de-bayrou-la-force-du-neo-lepenisme-et-le-regain-des-gauches/

[big bad fab]

Hash, I was wondering...
how about a comparison between NDA 2012 and Pasqua-Villiers 1999 ?

Unfortunately, no map from Euro 1999 are available any longer on your old blog

BUMP just for Hash

In a bid to restore this terrible thread, I drew up a correlation coefficient between the two variables at a departmental level, and it was only 0.17, which is positive but weak. I did find a 0.37 correlation between Boutin and Sarko, though (at a cantonal level).

Ah, thanks a lot. Yeah, there was something between Boutin and Sarko
As for NDA, maybe we'll keep on searching for him for a long time

[big bad fab]

Very beautiful map !

Heavens, my canton is in red
Corrèze is so funny

[big bad fab]

Morbihan has switched tonight to the left. Brittany, I hate you, more than ever

Go to the TNS-Sofres poll: big transfers from Bayrou voters (take that, Bayrou !), Sarkozy has a majority among employees from the private sector, Sarkozy has a majority among 18-24

[big bad fab]

Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

[big bad fab]

Back again after drinking some celebratory cider from Brittany. Very nice as well.

So, anyway, a point of interest already: Hollande carries the Territoire de Belfort.

Not by far.
Sarkozy's map seems to be (again) more FN than in the first round.

Sarkozy won Manche only by 50.1 !

You are probably happy, Fab.

"Entre 51 et 52 pour Hollande, ce serait une grosse déception et un Mélenchon et des Verts revenus dans le jeu législatif, ainsi qu’une droite soulagée et plus à même d’affronter le problème FN."

After all, maybe Buisson was right : France is structurally right-wing.

Well, Hollande himself said that below 52, it would be "étriquée" as a victory (narrow).

[big bad fab]

Almost identically. Mitterrand 1981: 51.76%. Hollande in 2012 (with 99.9% reporting): 51.7%

With French abroad, I hope it will be 51.5, not more

Don't be too sad, Antonio.
When you see the first polls for legislative elections, a 1997 scenario is likely.
Of course, between now and June 10th and 17th, there will be many impediments for him: Merkel, Moody's and Fitch, financiel markets, problems in Afghanistan, Melenchon, all the potential ministers who won't be ministers, etc.
Still, I'm doubtful the left won't be able to have a majority.
The problem: will the PS be able to have a mjority on its own ?
How have they been so stupid to give so many potential seats to the Greens ?!
Irepeat myself, but...

[big bad fab]

Let's see (tomorrow, it's late now ) the polls for the legislatives, the result polls and the maps. Unfortunately, it will be hard for the right, I think.

[big bad fab]

While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, here's a very important map: Jospin 1995 vs Hollande 2012



What did I say? Le Havre-Meaux-St. Etienne-Perpignan. That's the new axis.

Fascinating indeed. But very similar to Panzergirl's map, of course.
What I find very interesting is that the socialist candidate is down not only in Lot-Et-Garonne and Tarn-et-Garonne, but also in the 3rd ring of Toulouse suburbs. Sure, Jospin was more or less the favourite son there, but still.

As for Loir-et-Cher and, what is more, Indre-et-Loire, I'm a bit surprised.
Conversely, Manche, especially, but also Maine-et-Loire and Mayenne are awful for Sarkozy. Idem for Pyrenees-Atlantiques... and Cantal and Haute-Loire (but for the last 2, we've got a stupid favourite son effect.

As for "axis", guys, there are none, basically.
Seine-et-Marne is more and more Paris suburbs and so is tilting towards the left, but all the great Parisian Basin is turning or remaining rightist.

[big bad fab]

While everybody wastes time with boring French abroad results, ...

Quite true
Still, there are 2 results that have come as a shock for me: Holande has won Japan and, what is more, the UK !!!

And Sarkozy strong again in Brazil is still a mystery for me.

[big bad fab]

For completion's sake (even though it hurts...) :



Epic fail is epic.

The polls were really accurate ! My tracker was a good idea