We may also have to envision what sort of person a French expatriate in Cuba might be.
Fair enough, although Sarkozy's results in Libya and Armenia, and Melenchon's result in (once again Sandinista-ruled) Nicaragua also seem a little "fixed."
I didn't know Daniel Ortega is supervising French presidential election abroad.
It'd be trivially easy for a foreign government to commit absentee voter fraud; if they have the names and addresses of French expats they simply send requests for absentee ballots, intercept them at the post office, and fill them out themselves. Expats in Latin America tend to be wealthy businesspeople, so a large vote for the far-left would not at all be characteristic.
Again, think about what type of French citizen lives in Cuba or Nicaragua, neither of which is friendly towards rich Western businesspeople, and that any French citizen living there would be doing so of their own accord. Also, the Libya result makes sense given Sarkozy's role in the intervention which helped overthrow Gaddafi.
