France 2012: Official Results Thread

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For the first round (and the runoff), please post all results and result-related stuff in here; please post stupidities and the other stuff in the main thread. If anybody on here is interested, I'll mostly be liveblogging throughout the evening with full results as early as 18:00 (French time).

As a self-proclaimed specialist of France's electoral geography; here are my personal recommendations for some interesting and 'key' communes to watch for, which will probably be the main pastime after the exit polls. If you need a few key places to keep track of how things are going, here's where to look in priority:

Affluent right-wing strongholds: Neuilly, Paris-16eme, Saint-Cloud, Maisons-Lafitte, St. Germain-en-Laye, Saint-Ismier, Ste. Adresse, Saint-Didier-au-Mont-d'Or, Vincennes, Saint-Mande, Saint-Maur

Educated middle-class/affluent left-leaning/swing areas: Paris (entirety), Orsay, Palaiseau, Aix-en-Provence, Grenoble, Chambery, Villeneuve-d'Ascq

Comfortable middle-class suburbia (left-leaning): Cesson-Sevigne, Orvault, Vertou, Suce-sur-Erdre, Chauray, Pessac, Merignac, Tournefeuille, Blagnac, Cachan, Fresnes, L'Hay-les-Roses, Montrouge, Vanves,

Comfortable middle-class suburbia (right-leaning): Saint-Gregoire, Sautron, Le Bouscat, Bruges, L'Union, Balma, Castelnau-le-Lez, Lattes, Meylan, Fontaine-les-Dijon, Mont-Saint-Aignan, Bois-Guillaume, Marcq-en-Baroeul, Clamart, Antony, Sceaux, Levallois, Courbevoie, Sucy-en-Brie, Velizy (), Rambouillet

Bobo central: Lyon-1er, Lyon-4eme, Paris-3eme, Paris-10eme, Les Lilas, Montreuil

Old people dying on beaches: Menton, Antibes, Cannes, Saint-Raphael, Saint-Tropez, Saint-Raphael, Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer, La Grande-Motte, Saint-Cyprien, Saint-Jean-de-Luz, Les Sables-d'Olonne, La Baule, Dinard, Deauville, Trouville

Lepenistes4Hungarians 2007: Orange, Carpentras, Vitrolles, Marignane, Aubagne, Carnoux-en-Provence, Béziers, Sete, La-Tour-du-Pin, Aigues-Mortes, Vauvert, Saint-Gilles

Right-wing working class: Sainte-Sigolène, Mazamet, Toul, Carling, Freyming, Forbach, Stiring-Wendel, Saint-Amarin, Oyonnax, Cluses, Scionzier

Gaucho-sarkozyste working-class area: Gandrange, Tourcoing, Wattrelos, Maubeuge, Dunkerque, Montbéliard, Sochaux

Gaucho-lepeniste working-class area: Henin-Beaumont, Lens, Bethune, Bruay-la-Buissiere, Lievin, Halluin, Grande-Synthe, Roubaix, Moyeuvre-Grande, Hayange, Fameck, Woippy, Lavelanet

Socialist working-class area: Thiers, Carmaux, Decazeville, Lacq, Lormont, Cenon, Saint-Nazaire, Cherbourg-Octeville, Trelaze, Brest, Montceau-les-Mines, Digoin

Communist working-class area: Givors, Brassac-les-Mines, Commentry, Vierzon, Saint-Junien, La Grand-Combe, Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, Allonnes, Dives-sur-Mer, Gonfreville-L'Orcher, Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, Dieppe, Calais, Divion, Auchel, Carvin, Avion, Seclin, Denain, Saint-Amand-les-Eaux, Marchiennes, Longwy, Villerupt, Hussigny-Godbrange, Garchizy, Saint-Martin-d'Hères, Fontaine

'Periurbain lointain' (Distant exurban, a topic of much conversation): Mormant, Nangis, Donnemarie-Dontilly, Villeneuve-la-Guyard, Coulommiers, Lizy-sur-Ourcq, Pusignan, Meyzieu, Bourgoin-Jallieu

'Banlieue populaire': Venissieux, Vaulx-en-Velin, Givors, Herouville-Saint-Clair, Mantes-la-Jolie, Les Mureaux, Trappes, Grigny, Les Ulis, Argenteuil, Saint-Denis, Aubervilliers, La Courneuve, Garges-les-Gonesse

Favourite sons: Tulle, Neuilly, Henin-Beaumont, Massy, Borderes, Yerres, Sarran

A good bellwether might be Donzy (Nievre).

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Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

Hollande 33.75% > 2007: 26.6%
Sarkozy 18.75% > 2007: 24.9%
Marine 15.81% > 2002: 13.4%
Melenchon 15.17%
Bayrou 7.37% > 2007: 23%
Poutou 3.81% > 2007: 6.5%

Guadeloupe

Hollande 57% > 2007: 38.3%
Sarkozy 23.4% > 2007: 42.6%
Melenchon 5.38%
Marine 5.16% > 2007: 3.2%
Bayrou 4.73% > 2007: 8.5%
Joly 1.47% > 2002: 1.2%

Guyane

Hollande 42.73% > 2007: 32.5%
Sarkozy 27.03% > 2007: 41.4%
Marine 10.5% > 2007: 5.5%
Melenchon 7.91%
Bayrou 6.24% > 2007: 12.5%

Saint-Martin

Hollande 35.32% > 2007: 32.3%
Sarkozy 34% > 2007: 42.6%
Marine 12.5% > 2007: 6.7%
Melenchon 6.36%
Bayrou 6.34% > 2007: 9.2%

Horrible numbers for Sarko. Added 2007 comparisons.

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Your list is excellent, Hash. How would you classify Angoulême in Charente? I ask as I went there recently and saw a lot of Melenchon posters.

Angoulême is a fairly lower middle-class city, with a majority of the active population being part of what the Marxists out there would classify as the "proletariat" (ouvriers+employes). Similar to Saintes, La Roche, Brest, Lorient, Laval or Le Mans in terms of fairly moderate left-leaning lower middle-class cities. Not as affluent or professional as Nantes, Bordeaux or Rennes.

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Hash, are those the actual results from the overseas territories (If so, where's Martinique?) or just exit polls?

Actual (leaked) results.

For anybody who's interested, my liveblog is set up here: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/04/22/france-2012-liveblogging-the-first-round/

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For those like me who want to live in expectation and suspense, please don't post the leaked exit poll details on here. If you want, just post the url link to them so that those who can't wait can see them but those who don't can restrain their urges.

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How long until the exit polls? I have two different numbers in my head for some reason.

About an hour and 20 minutes, though again the media has them now.

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Are we also supposed to abstain from commenting on certain trends in any 'leaked' exit poll results (, which of course the rtbf has been reporting without any trace of restraint since they've got their paws on them)?

Yes, please. Only 30 minutes before the results at any rate.

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France is full of retards, once again.

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Hollande gave a strong speech, Sarko spoke like a moron. Guess my mind is made up then.

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Guys, I've often said that Corsican nationalists can tend to vote for the FN in presidential elections. I've been proven correct again.

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The case of Paris is exceptional, I think. Even London doesn't have that degree of...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Hollande even though he represents a rural area is apparently culturally Parisian. Sarkozy is from some awful Paris suburb. Chirac was Parisian. Was Mitterrand even from anywhere in particular?

Mitterrand was from Charente (Jarnac) but his political home base was always Chateau-Chinon in the Nievre.

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Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Lyon is still the most 'bourgeois' city against 'bobo' Paris and 'populaire' Marseille, but like Paris, it is shifting left very rapidly with boboization and so forth. Hollande will likely win Lyon, and do very well in the bobo 1st and 4th arr'd, Sarko will sweep the bourgeois 2nd and 6th. Marine's performance in Lyon's leftie sh**thole burbs and the exurbs will be huge, Memelenchon will probably not do so swellingly in Venissieux, Givors or Vaulx-en-Velin.

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

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The Bas-Rhin has some very amusing voting patterns looking through that Google stuff.

On a side note, I've advocating nuking Languedoc-Roussillon since 2010. I still think it's overdue. Or at least nuking the resort towns would be great.

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A few interesting departments to look at in more detail for those who like such stuff;

Finistere
Ille-et-Vilaine (Chouannerie4Sarko!)
Mayenne
Loire-Atlantique
Vendee
Charente-Maritime
Deux-Sevres
Orne
Manche (apparently nuclear industry isn't scared about Hollande at all)
Seine-et-Marne
92 and 94
Haute-Marne
Moselle
Bas-Rhin
Haut-Rhin
Doubs
Savoie
Alpes-Maritimes
Bouches-du-Rhone
Rhone
Haute-Loire (quite something...)
Cantal (funny Correzian influence...)
Gard
Aveyron
Pyrenees-Atlantiques (where is Euskadi gone?)
Corse-du-Sud (compare to the regionalists in 2010...)

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Places where Marion has significantly underperformed daddy:

Ile-de-France except Seine-et-Marne
Alsace
Ain
Savoie (both of them, in a pretty big way... even Cluses-Scionzier is nowhere as Lepenite as I would have imagined)
Rhone
Alpes-Maritimes

I suppose a prize would be in order for one who could guess why this is... but I'll keep my apple pie prize for some other contest. Too easy.

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Funny Catholic vs Protestant stuff going on in parts of the Gard... Just gleaning over results.

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She wasn't so bad in alsace and Alpes-Maritimes, Hash. And she isn't very high in Nièvre, Loir-et-Cher, Indre, Orne.

Sure, from Lyon to Savoies, she wasn't good (but it was the same in Doubs and Côte d'Or).

Daddy won 23% in Bas-Rhin and 23.5% in Haut-Rhin back in 02, and nearly 25% in 95. She's at 21 and 23% respectively. She's doing a bit less than 2% better than Daddy in 2002, so on a universal swing basis, she underperformed. Not that this surprises me one bit, I had already noted it in 2010. In the 06, Daddy took 26% in 02, she won 23.5%. Not surprising either, but still an underperformance.

Eure, otoh, is a nice result for her, just looking stuff over.

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I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte.

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Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

btw, there are 7 (i think) communes in the Meuse which retain communal status and have an appointed administration, but they are uninhabited as they are designated as "villages mort pour la France" - they were destroyed in WWI and haven't been rebuilt. All other communes in France have at least one inhabitant.

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Abstention was 51% in Mayotte, so let's stop grasping at straws.

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Sarkozy won New-Caledonia too:

N. Sarkozy : 49,63%
F. Hollande : 24,91%
M. Le Pen : 11,66%
F. Bayrou : 5,13%
J-L. Mélenchon : 3,28%
E. Joly : 2,62%
P. Poutou : 0,98%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 0,93%
N. Arthaud : 0,54%
J. Cheminade : 0,31%

Hmm, the point of oversea territories would also be to have abstention results, I'd be curious to know it for New-Caledonia.

44.6% in New Caledonia. I'd be curious to see a map of results and abstention in Kanakie/New Caledonia by commune, though I can draw it up in my mind right now and not be too far off.

SPM was posted on page one here.

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Here's one type of place where Sarko held up very well vis-a-vis 2007: very wealthy suburbs. Not surprising. This whole campaign, besides Sarko, has been about who would come up with the best insult to rich people.

edit: confirmed. He's even improving on his 2007 results in a good number of wealthyland places.

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Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

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More maps!

Daddy's Girl compared to Daddy in 2002 (about +1.04% nationally)



Marchais' Imitation compared to the Garden Dwarf in 1995 (+2.38% nationally)



Next up: Poison Dwarf in 2007 and 2012.

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Anybody got some info on the areas where Panzergirl did worse than Daddy? What is the likely explanation?

Two main things:

a. Urban areas or increasingly suburban areas - almost all of them. Since 1984, the FN vote has moved away from the downtown cores of all cities and has become very much of an exurban/rural vote. White flight/immigration, high property prices, boboisation all explain why the FN has gradually declined in cities. This is, of course, very clear in Paris but it likely explains Rhone/Ain/Loire, Alsace, Haute-Garonne, Herault and potentially Isere.
b. In a few cases, those spots where the 2002ish FN vote was fairly well-off of the CSP+ socioprofessional categories. Sarko stole all of them in 2007, apparently he kept a few of his 2007 gains with the most well-off/CSP+ FN voters. Likely explains Alpes-Maritimes.

I'll need to look at cantonal results in Savoie to see what happened there. Probably factor a.