France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

You're the best, as usual.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I just voted ! Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I just voted ! Second vote in my life, first in France and first for an electoral contest.

The perfect election to officially become a citizen.

This morning, in my polling station, I felt like there were only leftist voters... really...

What kind of precinct do you live in ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guys, I'm going out. I'm going to attend the election night at Sciences Po (my university). No spoiler, no live comment, nothing, but it will surely be an awesome night.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Back.

So, here we go. The first and second results were pretty promising, then came the terrible news. Don't take me wrong, I'm not scared that Hollande could lose this. Even if Sarko had pulled ahead, his chances to win were extremely tight. Now, he's basically done. We'll get rid of him and in the next 5 years we won't have too much economic, social and moral regression. This is a great victory.

But then what about the future ? Le Pen got almost 19% when most polls were giving her 15-16. She did better than her father, and this while turnout was far higher than in 2002. It will be hard to sleep at night thinking one voter of five is ready to support the far-right. I'm pretty sure to know what comes next. The UMP can't remain competitive with a FN at 20%. They have realized that trying to steal their votes by adopting their rhetoric doesn't work. The only rational choice is an electoral alliance. It won't come now, but it might well come by 2017. And then we'll get a Horrible Coalition ala Netherlands... Of course now is too soon, the FN hasn't entirely "dediabolized" itself, but it will come, sooner than you think. The Great Reactionary Alliance, made of those who screw the poor and those who make sure the poor will turn their hate on the foreigners, those who claim to defend the people and those whose policies harm 90% of the people, this alliance is almost unbeatable. France's turn will come.

But I digress. All this will only come if Hollande fails in restoring hope. If he succeeds (he can't succeed alone, he will need other european social democrats to prevail), then the disgusting reactionary machine will be stopped in time. I'll bet on his success.

Now, there's a clear goal : winning more than 55%. Getting a clear mandate is a necessity, winning is not enough. Then, the goal will be to win a solid majority in the Parliament. If all this is done, there are decent reasons to hope.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yvelines: Sarkozy 34.2%; Hollande 27.3%; Le Pen 12.4%; Bayrou (11.2%) / Rhone: Sarkozy 30.8%; Hollande 26.9%; Le Pen 15.1%; Melenchon 10.7%

My sh*tty departement has apparently remained sh*tty.

Waiting for Paris and 93, hopefully that will push Hollande up a bit.

Do you live in Rhone or Yvelines?

Anyway, the 93's in: Hollande 38.7%; Sarkozy 19.5%; Melenchon 17%; Le Pen 13.5%

Yvelines. Vélizy-Villacoublay, to be precise (which is just at the border with Hauts-de-Seine and is more right-wing than the departement as a whole).

[Antonio the Sixth]

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:

Those figures are a bit presumptuous, aren't they? At 99.9% on Google's collating page, Le Pen looks a fair bit away from that 20%.

Well, what they published are probably the estimate of some polling firm. Le Monde's strength compared to other journals is that it is published on afternoons and therefore contains real results rather than gross estimates. Their electoral pages are usually pretty great with complete elections results by departements and in the main communes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Parisien is reporting Paris: Hollande 34.8%; Sarkozy 32.2%; Melanchon 11.1%; Bayrou 9.3%; Le Pen 6.2%; Jolly 4.2%

lolpoisondwarf

I'm actually surprised. I would never have imagined he would break 30% there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte.

LOL at French comorians being xenophobic toward Comorian comorians.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

More like 1/20, to be objective. He would have to pick 4 points in two weeks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vélizy results :

Sarko 33.85%
Hollande 26.64%
Le Pen 13.27%
Bayrou 10.71%
Mélenchon 9.33%
Joly 2.34%
Dupont-Aignan 2.08%
Poutou 1.01%
Arthaud 0.39%
Cheminade 0.37%

Yep, it still sucks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results by (new) constituency



It's a real pity I have an exam tomorrow (in macroeconomics, no less) and that I start work on April 30, but I'll try to have some stats up soon. In any case, Geoclip's greatness will allow me to be lazy and steal their maps.

I assume Hollande won a majority of them ? I'm curious to know how many though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, then. Context and all that.

Hollande polled 28.6%. This is the highest for a PS candidate since Mitterrand's 34.1% in 1988 and is the second highest (again, behind 1988) for a PS/SFIO/Etc candidate when there's been hard left competition on the ballot. It is also the highest for a challenging candidate since Mitterrand in 1974 (when he polled 43.2%, with the assistance of the Commies).

Sarkozy polled 27.2%. This is the second lowest ever polled by an incumbent (Chirac only managed his usual fifth of the poll in 2002). The complexities of the French Right make further comparisons a little tricky. Still, it's notable that the combined score of Sarkozy and Bayrou (36.3%) is about the same as the combined score of Chirac and Barre in 1988 (36.5)%. This is not especially encouraging for the Poison Dwarf for obvious reasons.

Le Pen polled 17.9%. As has been extensively reported, this is the FN's highest ever total in a Presidential election. The increase on 2007 is huge, needless to say. The difference between 2012 and 2002 is less stunning (at 1.04%) than initial exit polls indicated, though pointing that out feels like straw-clutching.

Mélenchon polled 11.1%. While this was not as high as shown by the polls, it is still the best Communist/Fellow Traveller result since Marchais took 15.3% in 1981. Together, Le Pen and Mélenchon polled 29%, which is a massive anti-system vote no matter how you cut it. This is also the first time that a 'Communist' candidate has finished above the designative 'Centrist' candidate of record. Seriously.

Bayrou polled 9.1%. This is (just about) less than half of what he polled in 2007, but still higher than he managed in 2002 (6.8%). Still, it's the second lowest total ever polled by the designated 'Centrist' candidate.

Joly polled 2.3%. This is on the low side for Green Presidential candidates, but higher than Voynet in 2007.

There were other candidates as well, of course.

This is a very useful and informative post. You should just have added that the combined total of the far-left candidates (taken as the three Troskyst outfits) is at its lowest since 1969.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you Al. If only I hadn't been so busy until yesterday (and so tired since then) I would have done some maps as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's up with Sarkozy doing better among women? Am I the only one that finds that strange, never heard of a country before where the right didn't do better among men and the left better among women? Is it a common thing in France, and in that case are there any know demographic reasons for it?

In France, there hasn't been a significant difference since the 1980s (before, the right was stronger among women). The only notable difference is that extremist parties are weaker among women.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, I'm also intrigued now, since I, too, always assumed that women vote more left in all Western countries. Why is this not the case in the UK and France?

I have a vague feeling that working class women may be more socially conservative in some contexts but that seems like an unlikely explanation here.

Is there a strong divide in Sweden as well ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarko gets the VGE endorsement for what it's worth (I'm guessing not much?)

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/valery-giscard-d-estaing-pourquoi-je-voterai-sarkozy-26-04-2012-1972652.php

I wonder how many French will think "wait, he's still alive ?" when hearing about this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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Quote from Francois. Please tell me i'm understanding that wrong...

I would like to know how you understand it, because it doesn't seem all that controversial a quote to me.

The FN is a party which has the right to present itself and which contests some Republican values.

Sounds like praise to me... if i've understood.

"Contester" means "to oppose", "to question", not "to contest".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways...

There's something really quite old school about the Midi focus of Mélenchon's support, isn't there? Even if not exactly in terms of details.

...thoughts?

Don't expect anything from me. I'm still a noob at French political geography.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, basically...

20h France2: Hollande 36, Sarko 24, Marion 12, Melenchon 12, Bayrou 11, Joly 2

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...I'm a living stereotype.


Great maps !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande won Marseille and lost Lyon ? Wow, that must be a quite right-wing city...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Funny than the highest margins for Hollande in Paris suburbs, Limousin and Bretagne.
The last one is quite surprising.
Yes, I know it's swing to the left, but to that point...

Looks like Bretagne is France's California.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only Libyans really know how much of a hero Sarkozy is !

So Jews vote right wing in France?

I don't know about Jews in general, but Israel residents must fear socialists to have pro-Palestinian tendencies (though French diplomacy regarding Palestine has hardly been different between left and right-wing governments).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very beautiful map !

Heavens, my canton is in red

Well, to compensate, mine is obviously blue.