pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,839
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« on: April 25, 2012, 05:32:16 AM » |
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Texas probably represents about the 410th to 440th electoral votes in an Obama landslide. It goes to President Obama only in the event of a Romney or GOP collapse. The combination of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is roughly the mirror image of Texas in this respect. It has likely gone from the fringe of "overpoweringly R" to "decisively R". It could have gone from a state that Republicans can reliably take by double digits to one that Republicans will be lucky to take by high single digits.
A fair warning is to be made about any poll involving Texas: the state is so diverse, straddling regions of the US and containing areas that are poor analogues of any other part of America, and it is so large that fair samples of the state are hard to get. Any poll of Texas, even if it is by a pollster well-regarded elsewhere, is unreliable; even comparisons to polls by the same pollster are suspect.
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