Politico previews Clinton vs. Cuomo 2016

[Ogre Mage]

It is difficult to speculate on the political environment in 2016.  Those factors aside, I think defeating Clinton in the 2016 Democratic Primary would require an "outsider," someone who came into politics through a nontraditional route and is able to capture the public's imagination.  And it is very hard for me to see Cuomo running as an outsider, especially given his last name.  I would agree that a more conventional candidate is not going to defeat Clinton.  That's playing the game on her terms and she has even more heft and gravitas than in 2008.  

It goes without saying that a politician capturing lightning in a bottle this way is rare and difficult.  The cliche of lightning not striking twice comes to mind.  There are some Democrats out there who might be able to reconstruct the "Obama Effect" but I am not holding my breath.

A Clinton 2016 redux would not be without its problems.  First, her age would be raised as an issue.  She would be running at 68 and getting sworn in at 69.   Somewhat related to that is the tendency for Democrats to look for THE NEXT BIG THING to get excited about.  And that isn't Hillary.  She will have to fight that tendency.

Maybe Clinton will like retirement too much to come back.  But the Hillary for President drumbeat has already started and I suspect it will get louder as 2016 approaches.  All Presidential-caliber pols have a huge ego and that kind of siren's call is hard to resist.

[Ogre Mage]

Several articles note that Bill Clinton is offering campaign advice behind the scenes for the Obama campaign and fundraising for the President.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/75452.html

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/28/bill-clinton-to-appear-at-fund-raiser-with-obama-on-sunday/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/once-rivals-obama-and-clintons-forge-genuine-partnership-incentive-for-both-to-make-it-work/2012/04/29/gIQAb2wNqT_story_1.html

Could these political chits eventually lead to an Obama endorsement of Hillary?  If Biden runs, then the answer is probably no.  But if Biden stays out, then I think it is very possible.  And having the backing of the two most recent Presidents of her party would make Hillary extremely difficult to defeat within the context of a Democratic Primary.