French legislative election 2012

[big bad fab]

Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic for the UMP in Somme, for example. And too pessimistic in, let's say, Isère.
But, sometimes, it's time to go to bed

[Zanas]

I think this map might hint to Morano's reelection, very sadly... If only we could get rid of her permanently, she's a shame for our country.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

You're a woman, that's why you don't understand.

[MaxQue]

And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

You're a woman, that's why you don't understand.

Please. You are giving us a reputation as superficial people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us ? My rational brain tells me that this isn't a political issue and that there's no reason this could turn voters agains the left. But my guts tell me people are idiots and I've learnt to always expect the worst.

[big bad fab]

Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic for the UMP in Somme, for example. And too pessimistic in, let's say, Isère.
But, sometimes, it's time to go to bed

I was about to change Vosges-4 from PS to UMP, but, no, considering your map, Hash
But should I give Somme-2 to EE-LV ?

Zanas, we want the end of your own calculus

[adma]

And why is hotness a political parameter for you?

You're a woman, that's why you don't understand.

Please. You are giving us a reputation as superficial people.

Though in the case of Schwingy Le Pen, it may indeed be a bid for FN types to vote with their crotches--they being the sort who *would* go for "Hey, I'm a hottie!  Vote for me!" (at least in theory)

[Zanas]

Though in the case of Schwingy Le Pen, it may indeed be a bid for FN types to vote with their crotches--they being the sort who *would* go for "Hey, I'm a hottie!  Vote for me!" (at least in theory)

You know what ? I was thinking to myself just that. This electorate is quite capable of this.

Anyways, here is my complete list of constituencies worth following. I'm posting the whole of it here even though I started earlier, it should be easier to check out for you. The mode d'emploi is on hte previous page.

Ain-1 (G50,5) D-GS
Ain-2 T (G39 D38,8) D-GS
Aisne-2 (G52) Bertrand
Alpes-M-2 (G48,5) Aschieri D-GS
Bouches-du-R-1 (G49,2)
12 T (G38 D34)
15 T (G36 D38)
Calvados-5 (G49,8)
Charente-M-4 (G48) Bussereau
Côte d'Or-2 (G50,6)
Côtes d'Armor-3 (G49,2) G-GS
Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano
Meuse-2 (D51,7) D-GS
Morbihan-2 (G49) G-GS
Moselle-2 (G47,5) (I live next to it so my hopes are up…)
7 (G39 D37)
9 (G49)
Nord-14 (G48,8)
15 (D49,4)
21 (G47) (long shot)
Oise-7 (G49)
Pas-de-Calais-11 (FN48,4) Le Pen, Mélenchon
Puy-de-Dôme-3 (D48) G-GS Louis Giscard d’Estaing
Pyrénées-A-4 (G49,5) G-GS Lassalle
Bas-Rhin-2 (D47)
3 (G49,4)
Rhône-4 (G48)
12 (G48,7)
Saône-et-Loire-1 (G50,6) G-GS if both
4 (G49,6) G-GS if both
Sarthe-1 (G51,5) G-GS
5 (D49) G-GS
Paris-1 (G48)
Seine-Maritime-2 (G50,5) G-GS
10 (D48,5) G-GS
Seine-et-Marne-1 (G50,5)
3 (G48) Jégo
7 (D48,4)
Yvelines-12 (G48,5) Douillet
Somme-2 (G52)
4 (G49)
Tarn-1 (G50,3) G-GS
Var-2 (G38 D40) D-GS
Vaucluse-3 (FN34 D33 G33) Marion Maréchal-Le Pen
Vendée-2 (G50,1) D-GS
Yonne-2 (G49,5)
Essonne-4 (G50,2) Kosciusko-Morizet
Hauts-de-Seine-10 (G48,5) Santini
12 (D49,5)
13 (G51) Devedjian
Val-de-Marne-4 (G50,8)
5 (G49,97)
Val d'Oise-1 (D51)
2 (G51)
6 (G48,5)

Since I cowardly based my own predictions on yours, big bad fab, and I was too lazy to run through overseas circos, I'll need your numbers in order to deduce my final prognosis.

Feel free to discuss !

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US?  

[MaxQue]

So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US?  

Valérie Trierwiler, the spouse of the President, tweeted support to Olivier Falorni, a dissident socialist candidate against Ségolène Royal, 2007 socialist candidate to the presidential and former spouse of Hollande.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So how much seats will the Tweetergate cost us?

What the heck is tweetergate? And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US?  

The most ridiculous "political scandal" ever.

Basically, there is a PS vs. PS battle in one constituency (one of the two candidates being Ségolène Royal). Every PS leader has been actively campaigning for Ségolène with a dedication never seen in any other situation. And Hollande himself has made it pretty clear he supports her too.

Then, yesterday, Hollande's girlfriend (the "first lady") state on Tweeter her support for the other PS guy.

In an ideal word, the wife of the president would be entitled to support whoever she wants and her personal preference shouldn't be subject to political commentary (since she's not, you know, a politician), but this being a place filled with idiots, it has been labeled as a major "gaffe" for Hollande and the PS. Dumb story, really.

Oh, and "tweetergate" is a phrase I just invented. I like making up buzzwords.

[You kip if you want to...]

It is poor form from Trierweiler to be fair. Just looks like petty teenager "omg, I hate the ex-girlfriend" stuff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is poor form from Trierweiler to be fair. Just looks like petty teenager "omg, I hate the ex-girlfriend" stuff.

Yes, definitely. And I can't believe she was stupid enough not to realize the impact of her comments. Still, in an ideal world nobody should give a damn.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Dumb story, really.

Indeed. That's even sillier than I thought I'd be.
Well you can always trust the media to make a camel out of a straw.
Hardly think it'll make people switch from PS to UMP or FN. Maybe from PS to EELV.

EDIT: And I who got my hopes up this election would suddenly take an exciting turn.

[MaxQue]

Well, it's less silly than the Royal camp saying than Falorni will seat in the UMP group.
Hopefully he wins and we are rid of that witch.

[big bad fab]

My latest and probably last prediction...

FG 10
regionalists/independentists 3

EE-LV 21

PS 286
PRG 12
DVG 25
(total 323, well over the 289 threshold)

MoDem 2

UMP 176
NC 15
DVD 26
(total 217)

FN 0
EXD 1

[Leftbehind]

And when did -gate start to be used for political scandals outisde of the US?  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scandals_with_%22-gate%22_suffix

[Peter the Lefty]

Sorry if this has already been posted (I've checked and haven't seen it, though I could've missed it), but unfortunately Melenchon got 3rd place in Pas-de-Calais'-11.  I mean, I'd be a thorough PS supporter if I were French (unless Manuel Valls ends up becoming Hollande's successor, in which case I'd switch to either the Greens or the FdG), but I'd at least like to see Melenchon in parliament. 
Results:
Marine Le Pen (FN)-42.22%
Philippe Kemel (PS)-23.72%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (FdG)-21.46%
Jean Urbaniak (Divers droite)-7.86%
Marine Tondelier (EELV)-1.60%
Michael Vast (DLR)-0.92%
Others-2.22% (all of whom are left-wing or center-leftish...the PRG candidate is the most right-wing of them). 
Total Left: 49.00%
Total right (including FN): 51.00%
Eesh.  Looks like the runoff is going to be close.  Kemel will have to take more than 1% of the non-FN right-wing vote to win assuming none of the FdG voters opt for Le Pen (and judging by what she stands for, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them do).  So, the numbers seem to be pointing towards a narrow Kemel victory. 

[adma]

And isn't Urbaniak a bit of a moderate-maverick by "droite" standards?, If so, I can see how his vote wouldn't be wholesale Marine...

[Zuza]

Urbaniak is from centrist MoDem (though also backed by UMP), so I think that a large part (probably even majority) of his voters will vote for Kemel and Kemel will comfortably win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fabien seems to think the seat tally remains roughly the same (354-217 in favor of the left), which is reassuring, but I know he always tends to consider the worst option. If he thinks the left wins 350 seats, I'd bet on 330-340.

Sorry if this has already been posted (I've checked and haven't seen it, though I could've missed it), but unfortunately Melenchon got 3rd place in Pas-de-Calais'-11.  I mean, I'd be a thorough PS supporter if I were French (unless Manuel Valls ends up becoming Hollande's successor, in which case I'd switch to either the Greens or the FdG), but I'd at least like to see Melenchon in parliament. 
Results:
Marine Le Pen (FN)-42.22%
Philippe Kemel (PS)-23.72%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (FdG)-21.46%
Jean Urbaniak (Divers droite)-7.86%
Marine Tondelier (EELV)-1.60%
Michael Vast (DLR)-0.92%
Others-2.22% (all of whom are left-wing or center-leftish...the PRG candidate is the most right-wing of them). 
Total Left: 49.00%
Total right (including FN): 51.00%
Eesh.  Looks like the runoff is going to be close.  Kemel will have to take more than 1% of the non-FN right-wing vote to win assuming none of the FdG voters opt for Le Pen (and judging by what she stands for, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of them do).  So, the numbers seem to be pointing towards a narrow Kemel victory.

Pre-election polls hinted that Kémel was a stronger candidate than Mélenchon in a runoff against Le Pen, winning by over 55%. However, it should be noted that Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling (polls gave her around 35%), so I really don't know how it will end up. I really hope enough people will grow a brain by sunday...

[Zanas]

Actually, Marine Le Pen isn't the best shot at having FN députés. I would see her fail at 48,5-49 tops.

Much more is expected of her niece in Vaucluse, who really has a good chance of getting to the Palais Bourbon (at 22...), and hideous lawyer Collard in Gard, who also stands a good chance of being elected.

Since big bad fab published his projected results, I'll post mine :

FG 10
reg/ind 3

EELV 23

PS-PRG-DVG 338

Modem 2

Right 199

FN 1
Other extreme right 1

This would be a very comfortable majority, in between the likes of those of 2002 and the incumbent 2007 one.

It would fail just a few seats short of the 3/5 majority of the whole Congress (Assemblée+Sénat) that is needed to reform the Constitution.

But that'll probably a bit lower, since I'm a leftist and a very optimistic one !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh yeah, if you are projecting a majority even bigger than what Fabien expects, you know something is wrong.

I don't know what I would give to see such a result, anyways...

[Zuza]

Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling

While Urbaniak significantly underperformed, so probably most of those his voters who were ready to vote for Le Pen, voted for her already in 1st round...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen significantly overperformed its polling

While Urbaniak significantly underperformed, so probably most of those his voters who were ready to vote for Le Pen, voted for her already in 1st round...

True. I really hope you are right.