French legislative election 2012

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

[Franzl]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

Yes, the social market does seem to be an improvement on whatever the hell it is the UK has

Well yes, but doesn't that mean (as far as governments have control over these things) Merkel's government is doing a rather good job? If unemployment is what you primarily judge governments on?

[Franzl]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... )

[Beet]

Germany is like the shopkeeper who is making a lot of money because he is loaning money to his deadbeat customers to buy more of his goods. The money he is making is only on paper; when it doesn't materialise, it will turn out that a lot of that profit was thrown away.

[Franzl]

Anyhow, returning to Germany, will the ruthless austerity-drive across the Eurozone not have a detrimental on German exports to the point she may re-enter recession?

Yes. This is indeed one concern. I think I read that this year, exports to outside the Eurozone equalized the effects of lossed profits from within the EU. Not certain that will continue, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... )

Well, yeah. When your chancellor and her silly ideology will have destroyed the entire European economy (Germany comprised) and turned Europe into the sh*thole of the world, maybe we'll resume this discussion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

[rob in cal]

Yeah, I'd like to know where the marginal seats are most likely to be, probably we wont' know until after the first round and if a FN candidate makes it.  I'm guessing alot of three way marginals will be out there in the FN heartland areas.  It will be interesting to see how many Socialist candidates end up winning with 38-45% in the second round.  Shades of France in 1997 or even 1996 in Italy where the left won dozens of seats due to a split in the rightwing vote both in the North and in the Naples area.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For all these stuff, you have to ask Gaël or Fabien. I really know nothing about the seat-by-seats detail of these elections (but I'd be very interested in learning about it ).

[Hash]

If I didn't work all day/week, work all evening on my blog and be in Montreal all weekend; I could put something together. But I should, given that journalists have proven that they know absolutely zilch about legislative elections, even less than what they know about presidential elections.

At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont. If that contest doesn't end in a Hamilton/Burr duel, I don't know what would. Also, the people who say that there will 300+ triangulaires are idiots who should get laid instead of saying such things.

Also, it will apparently be stupid day all day long, because Panzergirl's loonies are running under the ultra tinpot label "Rassemblement Bleu Marine" and the Bearnese Moron seems bent on destroying his own party and is running his fools under the "Centre pour la France" label.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont.

For real?

[batmacumba]

This should be scheduled on MMA championship.

[Bacon King]

At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont.

For real?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/11/us-france-election-clash-idUSBRE84A0TX20120511

Melanchon to make up his mind today, apparently.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Sarkozy's approvals kind of make sense in that lame ducks usually get a slight boost from people who aren't angry at them anymore and don't consider them a threat, I think the first Bush had approvals in the low 40s around election day 1992 but were in the mid-50s by the time he left office. Didn't happen with his son of course, but he was far more controversial and polarizing.

[Andrea]

Melenchon has confirmed today he will run in Henin Beaumont

[Franzl]

Sarkozy's approvals kind of make sense in that lame ducks usually get a slight boost from people who aren't angry at them anymore and don't consider them a threat, I think the first Bush had approvals in the low 40s around election day 1992 but were in the mid-50s by the time he left office. Didn't happen with his son of course, but he was far more controversial and polarizing.

Well, kind of. Not before he left office...but I think he was back at like 45-50 a year later...?

[SPQR]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... )

Well, yeah. When your chancellor and her silly ideology will have destroyed the entire European economy (Germany comprised) and turned Europe into the sh*thole of the world, maybe we'll resume this discussion.

Word...

[big bad fab]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

[MaxQue]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

[MaxQue]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

Yikes... That makes as much sense as a Politico post.

I can't believe I'm with the UMP on an issue.

[Colbert]

It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...

[MaxQue]

It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...

I'm not convinced than he will finish in front of the socialist candidate...