French legislative election 2012

[big bad fab]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

[big bad fab]

A minority government with PS/EE-LV/MoDem, probably.

Back to the 4th Republic

[big bad fab]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

Yikes... That makes as much sense as a Politico post.

I can't believe I'm with the UMP on an issue.

Blame the utter fascination of socialists for the little Greens whom they are so afraid of, just because they make great gains in European and regional elections, as usual.

[big bad fab]

The left can't lose.

I agree with Hash on the fact that national polls aren't really accurate, but they at least give us a general trend and it's really bad for the UMP at the moment.
It's worse than 1997 for the UMP. In the 1st round, of course.
The 2nd i sanother thing: maybe if the "pink wave" is too high in the 1st, some rightist will GOTV and make a "correction" in the 2nd round.

[big bad fab]

Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

With a coherent 45%, the left is en route for a larger victory than 1997, larger than the right's victory in 2007 and probably not far from the right's victory in 2002.

As I've said one week ago, all this will have to be reassessed after the 1st round and when we'll know all the candidacies (which should be declared before Tuesday night, on the 12th of June).

[big bad fab]

Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

Ditto.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

Well, Hash hasn't made Nord, Ile-de-France (sure, there is Yvelines, but there is the rest too...) any department of the South-West so far... And if you consider also Corse or Meuse, normally rightist areas, the left will be up, up, up.
Plus, Hash is a tad conservative, I think.

[big bad fab]

Allez Valérie !

Voted at midday for my own UMP sacrificial lamb
Stupid redistricting... I could have voted for a centrist in a swinging constituency

[big bad fab]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

[big bad fab]

If the UMP candidate Mourrut doesn't drop in Gard-2, the best chance of victory for the FN will be Vaucluse-3, where Panzermiss (Big Daddy's grand-daughter) is a candidate.

And do you know why ? Because the socialist candidate, who has zero chance to be elected, is staying in the race...

[big bad fab]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

Of all UMP bigwigs, NKM is certainly not the one I want to see fall.


And considering a UMP candidate did drop out for the sake of helping the FN to defeat the PS, don't play the moral card on Vaucluse-3.

I play the moral card, because the PS doesn't stop playing it.
But we'd better ask for a statement from our Présidente, I think


Zanas, I look forward to your own totals, indeed. Thanks for joining us here also Even though I'm fed up with all these leftists

On Ain-1, it's really razor-thin, I agree. On Ain-2, the UMP has a margin, even in a triangulaire and there will be some "vote utile" from FN to the UMP.

On Aisne, I don't know how you reach such a total for the left. Sure, the FN voters are more leftist here, but still. And small far-left candidates, all the more with their current very low results, won't transfer well to the PS, anuwhere.

As for Alpes-Maritimes, it's the same thing. Beware of FN transfers, which are higher here than in Aisne or even Moselle, for the right. What is more, the "divers écologistses" are often, in the South-East, some rihgtists or far-rightists disguised, just to gather votes and then public money Their voters are more like Bardot than Jadot So they don't qualify exactly in the "left" column. On the other hand, Ginésy is an old man. But I think he's able to still make it without too much problems.

Bouches-du-Rhône-1: I must concede it's more a hope than a real prediction But I also remember that Masse is part off the "system" and that Vichnievsky is opposed to him and that Boyer may appeal to the FN more than usual.
In the 15th, I think there is a lil' advantage for the UMP.
In the 12th, I must concede the simple calculus is against the UMP, no problem. But it's my guts here that tell me that there will be some vote utile for the UMP. Still, I'm a more than careful man and I think I'll change my prediction Well done, my friend

On Calvados, all the votes for the DVG won't transfer to the Green and with enough votes from DVD and FN, the UMP should win.

On Charente-Maritime, Bussereau will win in the 4th (good transfers from both the MoDem and the FN for him; the FN is more bourgeois and rural there) AND in the 1st

On Côtes-d'Armor, Le Fur is surprisingly resilient and he can make it, for the same reasons as Bussereau in a way.

On Côte d'Or, my transfer calculus gives me a lil' advantage for the right. We are here with a bourgeois MoDem and a FN from rural conservatives.


Please don't derail the thread with (admittedly nice) photos. Please.

[big bad fab]

After this... charming interlude, here is the following :

Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99) (yes, literally !)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano

I'll only be doing mainland France, which excepts Corsica, overseas and abroad-living citizens, beacause I can't handle how things work in those barbaric places...

On Doubs, it's really on a par, but probably with bad transfers from the FN to the UMP. I still think it will tilt towards the UMP in the end, but I'm very weak to argue...

On Eure-et-Loir, I've already answered on my blog. Right territory, I think Gorges will make it with 4 or 5 votes

On Eure, I hope you'll be right , but unfortunately, Morin has an appeal even towards FN voters locally.

On Gard-2, Collard won't make it: there is a roof that FN can't break, I'm sure.

On Gironde (I'm from Bordeaux, you know ), I just can't stand the right might lose everything... Foulon isn't a good candidate (he isn't even a good baker any longer ) but I think he can win in what is now a pure tossup.

On Hérault, always the same explanation: some "vote utile" from the FN voters. But I acknowledge I'm weak here.

On Indre-et-Loire, Briand has a good appeal towards FN voters (who are broadly rural or exurban here). He can win, I'm confident.

On Jura, there is a small gap when you apply the usual transfers. And Pélissard is a very well entrenched man locally.

On Loire-Atlantique, it can't be entirely for the left And, when I calculate transfers from FN and MoDem, it's OK for the UMP candidate.

On Manche, in both the constituencies, there are some rebellious minds in the countryside currently, but FN, DVD and Le Rachinel voters will transfer well to the UMP in the end, I think.

On Marne-1, it's razor-thin, but I think transfers will be good for Robinet.

On Meurthe-et-Moselle, I rather wish than predict a defeat for Morano But I also think she is behaving in a far excessive way, even for her traditional voters... And given the swinging past of this constituency...

On Loiret, my heart bleeds... It's really very tight in these 3 constituencies, but I think there is a slight advantage for the right in the 1st and 2nd. I'm weaker on the 6th and still hesitating...

[big bad fab]

Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic for the UMP in Somme, for example. And too pessimistic in, let's say, Isère.
But, sometimes, it's time to go to bed

[big bad fab]

Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic for the UMP in Somme, for example. And too pessimistic in, let's say, Isère.
But, sometimes, it's time to go to bed

I was about to change Vosges-4 from PS to UMP, but, no, considering your map, Hash
But should I give Somme-2 to EE-LV ?

Zanas, we want the end of your own calculus

[big bad fab]

My latest and probably last prediction...

FG 10
regionalists/independentists 3

EE-LV 21

PS 286
PRG 12
DVG 25
(total 323, well over the 289 threshold)

MoDem 2

UMP 176
NC 15
DVD 26
(total 217)

FN 0
EXD 1

[big bad fab]

So that asshole Karimet didn't drop out ? Couldn't that cost Dosière the election ?

The PS has dropped Karimet and is now officially supporting Dosière. So, the "vote utile" and the usual discipline will be enough for Dosière to win.

[big bad fab]

People are a bit late on the pickup? Anyhow, It's fun to assign ideological labels like "centrist" or "centre-right" to voters in a place which has lost all sense of left-right politics in recent years, but in reality the bulk of the remnants of Urbaniak's vote are a personal vote in Noyelles-Godault (where he won 40.3% against 31.5% for Marine), where he has been mayor since 1983. And Noyelles-Godault is hardly any different from the other communes. Marine won 32% there and won 48% in the 2007 runoff.

You're damn right, as usual, but, well, if she is able to gain another 17 points in Noyelles while being stuck to 48 anywhere else (or let's say 42 in Carvin and 52 in Hénin), she won't make it anyway.

[big bad fab]

Great, Gaël !
Indeed, we are really very close.
Fine (or frightening ?) to see that pollsters are rallying our predictions
Though they have taken almost a week, with all their means and people, to give us excessively cautious projections...
I'm worrying about the 3/5 majority for the left now

[big bad fab]

Yonne-1

I'd say, because it's Yonne SW, not Alpes-Maritimes or inner Morbihan, and considering the fact the UMP candidate, Larrivé, is a living caricature for FN voters: a young ambitious, ENA+business school+Sarkozy's office !

35.8 + 3.3 (20% of FN) + 4.8 (95% of FG) + 3.8 (80-85% of Greens) + 0,4 (a bit less than 50% for the far-left, as it's only the "pure" remnants of LO and NPA) = 48.1 for the left

34.4 + 9.2 (55% of FN) + 1.1+0.5 (not exactly 100% of DVD) + 0.1 (something from AEI) = 45.3 for the right.

So, yes, it's really lost for the right, all the more that the PS candidate is mayor of Auxerre, the main city.
Julio, if you had spent hours on all the 577 constituencies (), you would have been aware that it's really good for the left, as we have many, many situations where it's something like 46.3 vs 46.7...
And, Julio, you put 2 question marks in your post, so... it's normal for Hash to react in a lively way.


Benoît, the FN isn't more respectable now than before 2011: all the guys around Marine really want power (contrary to Jean-Marie Le Pen), but they are at least as mad as the former team. And they are even far less intelligent.
Though they were cr*p, at least, people like Le Gallou, Blot, Martinez, even devil Stirbois, were clever guys.
So, as for leaders, middle and local politicians, rank-and-file, the transfers between UMP and FN may be, at a certain point, as impossible as ever.

And FN voters aren't likelier to transfer to the UMP than before, as it's again a mix between popular vote and "strong right" vote, plus (it's new in 2012) a rural and far-exurban vote. What Sarkozy did in 2007 was to appeal DIRECTLY to popular voters, apart from his traditional bourgeois base. It wasn't the FN rank-and-file or appartachiki who rallied Sarkozy.
So, today and for some years to come, adding UMP+FN hasn't any more relevance than before.

Of course, if the Droite populaire-wing of the UMP was a party of its own and if France had PR as electoral system, then you could add FN+Droite+populaire+UMP+even centre-right MPs, though still not the voters.

[big bad fab]

http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/candidats.asp

[big bad fab]

Oh yes, I knew that one, but nothing specific for dropouts I guess.

Just compare to the results, for example here:
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/elections/resultats/

[big bad fab]

I was right about Yonne 1st

Yeah !
But Yonne 2nd is won by the left, against the odds.
Yonne has been really weird this turn and I was right to put high on the list of "points of interest".

Globally, our predictions are pretty good, Hash, don't you think ?
Though I shouldn't have changed my prediction on Loire but should have on Isère

[big bad fab]

lolvendée. You know the traditional right wingyness of west central France is a dying tradition when the PS takes two seats in Vendée.

Berezina as we say in French

Corse is really unpredictable...

[big bad fab]

Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?

[big bad fab]

Is Poisson the only one to win back a constituency (Rambouillet) for the right ? Hash ?

Wallis & Futuna apparently. Though that was thanks to a triangulaire.

South Corse-1 is a right pick up too, isn't it?

Oh, yes, of course.
But I meant... normal political territories

[big bad fab]

fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...

Actually, I had predicted that before even the first round, when Fab didn't predict it until after the first round

I'm pleased by my predictions overall, with 92% correct thus far. Especially constituencies like Drome-2, Isere-7, Seine-et-Marne-7 where I disagreed with Fab Not so happy about BDR-11 and Yonne-1, where Julio can come and drool on my ruins.

I have to count my own failures. Probably a bit more than you. As susual