French legislative election 2012

[Colbert]

first, a very nice link, when you'll find all you want about french political parties.

http://www.france-politique.fr/partis-politiques.htm


next : the very exciting election, this 2012.

-What will happen to UMP ? Would be divided in two wings ? Would be absorbed by MODEM and FN ? Would the situation be the same ?

-socialist party would respect is agreement with EELV or not ? Would there is AGAIN a artificial sustain to this zombie : the radical left party ?

-What will happen to relationship between PCF and PG in FDG ?

-Is the left would gain majority ?

[Colbert]

as said a lot of UMP leaders, UMP want to make suicide.

It's obvious than with 32%, with a left at 43-44%, only, not an alliance but an agreement of "let the first of the two going on the second round" between UMP and FN' candidates (as want a large majority of UMP's voters)


IMO, we will have a very large victory of the socialist party, in term of seats.

[Colbert]

as usual, the night of the 1st round, we'll be the shame of the electoral world, we'll be a third-world country, because the ministry of interior will give the results with a lot of those f... "divers droite", "divers gauche", "divers", "others", as all others country give exact results of ALL parties, even those who scored like 0,02 %


Shame on france :/

[Colbert]

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.

It happen in 1997 french legislative

and it will happen in 2012. UMP's electorate want an alliance, or at less a pact (?) with FN, but national boad of UMP don't want.

In any case, UMP will not split, because of the law of party financing.

[Colbert]

It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...

[Colbert]

just for fun (and 'cause i'm addict to make maps...) : the national assembly IF the results of the legislative would be the same as the 1st round of the presidential, and IF the voting methodology would be 100% proportionnal.

A funny assembly, IMO

Don't you think so ? ^^

[Colbert]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)

[Colbert]

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)

me too, that's the best election blog

but really, as french, you could write it in french TOO

[Colbert]

poll institutes seems on strike :/

[Colbert]

as usual, the result of this legislative will depend ONLY of turnout level.

High : 60 % of chance for left to lose
low : 100 % of chance for left to win