French legislative election 2012

[rob in cal]

I think its time to get this thread rolling.  From the recent polls it looks like the UMP has about 30% the FN about 18%  , the leftwing parties about 44-45 % and centrists the rest.  The questions I have are 1) is it a certainty that there will be no FN UMP second round electoral agreement to forestall the dreaded (or hopeful depending on perspective) three cornered contests that I'm sure the Socialists are looking forward to.  Next question, assuming no agreement, can the left win a majority of seats with significantly less than 50% of the vote.
      Or, will the left vote surge now that Holland has won, and they in fact win a popular vote, and seat majority.
     Also, what about the centrists and electoral agreements, would they be more likely to try to link up with the UMP or the left in the second round.
     If the FN vote holds up at 18% nationwide, I'm wondering if their candidates will make it to the second round in an unprecedented amount of districts.  All of this could produce a very unproportional result where the left wins substantially more seats than the UMP and FN combined even though the UMP and FN combined have substantially more votes.   Elections like these are why I support proportional representation, though not the Greek model, of bonus seats, or the high threshold model either.

[rob in cal]

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.

[rob in cal]

Yeah, I'd like to know where the marginal seats are most likely to be, probably we wont' know until after the first round and if a FN candidate makes it.  I'm guessing alot of three way marginals will be out there in the FN heartland areas.  It will be interesting to see how many Socialist candidates end up winning with 38-45% in the second round.  Shades of France in 1997 or even 1996 in Italy where the left won dozens of seats due to a split in the rightwing vote both in the North and in the Naples area.

[rob in cal]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

[rob in cal]

Looking forward to it.

[rob in cal]

IFOP with new numbers today, looks pretty much unchanged, with parties of the right with a small lead over the combined left, which I suppose equals a socialist victory.

[rob in cal]

Anyone have any idea what kind of parties/candidates are meant by the "others" or divers that is getting 1.5 % of the vote in the last poll?
I agree that the FN and UMP vote can't be lumped together as one coherent bloc since they won't work together, however if in fact their combined vote, plus that of all other small right wing parties is bigger than that going to the left wing parties, it will underscore the fact that the NA will not be a true reflection of the electorate.  Of course since it was the right that abolished proportional representation in 1986, this would be a form of poetic justice.  Sooner or later, one would think, the right wing parties will embrace proportional representation. 

[rob in cal]

It seems like alot of European countries that directly elect a President do it seperately from the legislative elections, such as Ireland, Austria, Slovakia etc, and only in the case of France is it scheduled a month before the legislative elections, but yes it must be weird to be constantly voting, kind of like many parts of Germany in 1932, where many people voted five different times.

[rob in cal]

Has anyone seen a list of all the close second round elections and who won them.  It seems to me as if there were alot of close ones. 

[rob in cal]

Objectiv, thanks for list.  Looks like the UMP did ok in the close head to head matchups, with the left getting lucky with a few  victories over two right wing candidates in the dreaded three way runoffs.