French legislative election 2012

[Antonio the Sixth]

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How do the elections actually work? Is it a FPP system?

2-round FPP. Candidates getting more than 12.5% of registered voters goes to the 2nd round. Then, the candidates with the most votes wins.

Wikipedia says a candidate can only win in the first round if they get >50% of votes and >25% of registered voters, and it it also specifies that if nobody gets >12.5% of registered voters, then the second round is just the top two candidates. Is this accurate? What happens when a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote but less than 25% of RV's? Or when only a single candidate gets more than 12.5% of RV's?

This is correct. I guess that if the candidate gets more than 50% but less than 25%, the second round is held normally. And if only one gets over 12.5, the runner-up still gets qualified.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Right wingers favored according to BVA:

32.5% UMP
32.0% PS
16.0% FN
10.5% FdG
  5.0 Modem
  4.5% Greens
  1.0% DLR
  0.5% NPA

45.5% Left
49.5% Right
  5.0% Modem

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1136/fichier_intention_de_vote_legislatives_et_questions_dactualite_bva-orange-spqr-rtl10f8d.pdf

BTW: Sarko leaves office with a 50-49 approval rating.

WTF is wrong with this country ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.

That's the most likely scenario, actually. In the constituencies where the FN will stand in the runoff, they will harm the right and allow the PS to win. I'm still tempted to expect the worse from the voters, though...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wish they'd discovered their love for Sarkozy a week ago.

Can't say I'd have any love for either. Chancellor Angela 'Hoover' (is Eurozone unemployment at a record high or not?) Merkel is out of favour, though I'd still suspect I'd split my vote between the CDU and SPD

Unemployment in Germany is lower than it has been in decades. With virtually no deficit spending.

National selfishness FTW !

Well Merkel is a German politician elected by the German voters who are interested in German economic well being.

(Although we've had this discussion before, Antonio... )

Well, yeah. When your chancellor and her silly ideology will have destroyed the entire European economy (Germany comprised) and turned Europe into the sh*thole of the world, maybe we'll resume this discussion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For all these stuff, you have to ask Gaël or Fabien. I really know nothing about the seat-by-seats detail of these elections (but I'd be very interested in learning about it ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

Too lazy to write it in English , but I've put a list on my blog of centre-right and right leaders who are threatened or not.

The other interesting list is that of Green candidates: will they be able to resist against socialists who are candidates against the national agreement between PS and EE-LV ? And will the Greens be able to have a group in the Assembly (you need 15 MPs for that).

Wasn't it 20 MPs ? Or were the rules loosened again recently ?

It was lowered in the rules reform of 2009. PS wanted to lower it at 8, UMP wanted to keep it at 20, but Sarkozy wanted 15.

8 ? What were they smoking ?!?

20 was fine, really.

There is 8 commissions, so, their idea were as soon you have enough MPs to seat in all commissions, you should be able to form a group.

Yikes... That makes as much sense as a Politico post.

I can't believe I'm with the UMP on an issue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)

Lol I guess that's why Hollande doesn't want full PR and only wants a bit of it? 

None of the two big parties want PR (for obvious reasons), nor does Bayrou. Bayrou, however, was a bit more serious in his proposal for a share of PR, whereas the two big parties have promised it at every elections and immediately forgotten about it once elected. It is probably a way to court green (for the left) and FN (for the right) voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, anybody interested in a seat-by-seat profile/prediction on my part or something close to that?

Hell yes !!!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Adding UMP and FN has, well, absolutely no sense. At all. Definitely.

Ditto.

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That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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That's an interesting discrepancy because, extrapolating from Gaël's constituency-by-constituency analysis, I come to the conclusion that the left's victory should be lower than in 1997. So looking at national number, the left is far ahead, while if you look at individual races it's almost a tossup.

From following Hash DAILY, hes doing some fantastic work, and from somone who only knows french politics form a superficial perspective its been a wonderful education.... we can all thank Marleix's gerrymandering the constituencies (attempt in some cases) where you have huge safe left seats "reserves", but fewer competative ones (at least on paper right) leading to a large number of toss-ups where i would expect the local issues/candidates to be more important?

Also, i have a question... whats a suppleant? why are some/most parties basically presenting two candidates?
[/quote]

A "suppléant" is a substitute. If the sitting MP resigns or passes away, the suppléant can take his seat without the need for a by-election. If the candidate is a sitting minister, the suppléant is basically the actual candidate (because a minister cannot be a MP in France, so he will resign from his seat immediately after winning election).

There might be several candidates from the same parties if there are "dissidents", ie people who haven't got the party endorsement but run nonetheless. It can happen especially often if the national party nominates someone unpopular at the local level.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande has been extremely silent since his inauguration. I guess that's part of the "normal" strategy (ie, highlighting the difference with Sarkozy and his constant speaking). Anyways, the President has never (directly) taken the lead of the legislative campaign, and has generally refrained from even commenting on it. 5th Republic political traditions emphasize on the President being "above parties" (which is of course bullsh*t, but still plays an important role).

Thus, there are two people who could naturally take the lead of a legislative campaign now. Either the Prime Minister (Ayrault), who, being the emanation (and somehow leader) of the parliamentary majority, can have a legitimity in doing so, or the party's leader (Aubry). It has never cleared up which of those two should prevail, and considering Aubry is pissed off, this might lead to a few conflicts inside the PS. However, thus far the campaign has been so low-key that the issue hasn't really erupted. Hopefully it never will...

On the right, the leader is very clearly Jean-François Copé, the party's general secretary whose well-known ambition is to become President in 2017. However, several people in the party (chiefly former PM Fillon) are also trying to prepare for 2017, and are somewhat undermining his authority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2007, the parliamentary right won only 46% of the votes. It still won a comfortable majority.
In 2002, the right won 43% and 69%.
In 1997, the left won 45% and 55%.

It almost never happens in France that the winning coalition gets a majority of the vote in the first round. That's what happens almost always in countries using FPP. Didn't the labour not even win a majority of the vote in 1997 ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande has been extremely silent since his inauguration.

Aaaaaaand just after posting this, I learn that he will give his first interview this evening. I guess he will avoid the topic of legislatives, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations

40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

In my constituency, the PS candidate would have 40% in the votes cast in person, against 20% for Fredo. Overall turnout would be 22%, including 14% by interwebs. She seems to be doing much better than Hollande, while Fredo is polling way less than Sarko. Servan-Schreiber would apparently be in third, seemingly with Balkany trailing. In South America, the EELV-PS candidate seems very optimistic.

Turnout seems downright horrible (single digits or low double digits) around the world. This likely opens the door to weird fluke results.

http://frenchmorning.com/ny/2012/06/02/soiree-electorale-en-direct/

http://www.slate.fr/france/57045/legislatives-francais-etranger-estimations

40% ? I guess that's good news ahead of the runoff ?

Quite. I've always said that Fredo is a terrible candidate when everybody else was banking on a legitimist UMP vote in the constituency. I would have been worried if Fredo had been kicked out by a stronger guy like Servan-Schreiber, but all the divers droite looneys cancelled each other out and I think that their voters probably won't care much about voting in the runoff, especially for a candidate like Fredo who was the focus of all attacks by the DVD candidates. Turnout is so pathetically low at this point that anything is possible, but I'm confident that the PS will win here. Not that I care all that much, but just the thought of having Fredo as my 'other' MP when my 'real' MP is retarded enough as it is... it's just torture.

Indeed. Watching retards getting their ass kicked is one of the best moments in politics (so rare, unfortunately).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Allez Valérie !

Voted at midday for my own UMP sacrificial lamb
Stupid redistricting... I could have voted for a centrist in a swinging constituency

We should trade our constituencies off.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just voted for the PS sacrificial lamb in my overwhelmingly right-wing constituency : Jacques Lollioz (yeah, good one for the LOLgislatives site ). If we break 25% this will probably be a nice result for the PS.

Then, you should be quite happy, because it's over 25!

Over 30 actually ! Didn't expect it. We won't win, but maybe we can give Pécresse a run for her money.

And unlike MA-3 Republicans in 2010, and NY-22 Democrats this year, your sacrificial lamb is at least not named Lamb.

Check out the first three letters of his name : that's not much better.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NKM isn't on the list ? I thought she was Le Pen's pet peeve in the UMP.

She has even a "special treatment"... as Le Pen explicitly call for the FN voters for vote for the socialist candidate...
I guess (hope?) it will have the opposite effect.

Of all UMP bigwigs, NKM is certainly not the one I want to see fall.


And considering a UMP candidate did drop out for the sake of helping the FN to defeat the PS, don't play the moral card on Vaucluse-3.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now, I don't get it. Good news, but still wut ?