French legislative election 2012

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would suggest that maybe we keep at least half on topic, or something. Are there lists of candidates - or at least of where any incumbents will be running given the re-gerrymandering - online? Which races are likely to be especially high profile? Etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At any rate, the big showdown might/will be Panzergirl vs. Melenchon in Henin-Beaumont.

For real?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So let's start with Limousin because it should be easy enough. I've decided to try giving the constituencies names, just to amuse myself. Don't take it too seriously.

Creuse 1 (Marche) - PS
Corrèze 1 (Tulle-Ussel) - PS won in the first round.
Corrèze 2 (Brive-la-Gaillarde) - PS
Haute-Vienne 1 (Limoges-Ambazac) - PS
Haute-Vienne 2 (Limoges-Saint-Junien) - PS
Haute-Vieene 3 (Limoges-Bellac) - PS

A most difficult task, as you can imagine.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, the internet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

19th Nord might as well count as another loss for the PCF; a really, really good hold for the PS all things considered.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Welcome to elections in the era of 24 news and all that. See also 'bigotgate'. Labour gained Rochdale anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's the opposite of useless. Tells a great deal about politics in France these days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it makes sense to add up PS-FG-EELV-Whatever totals (at least as an indication of something), but doing that with the UMP and FN misses the point that a lot of FN votes are 'fyck you!' votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Green underperformance (that is, when compared to a more 'normal'  Left candidate) very obvious...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right click for a bigger version and all that. Fairly self-explanatory (winning margins for left candidates, for right candidates, for far-right candidates, etc) with a couple of exceptions. Left/left runoffs have been given the same colour as first round Left wins; the few right-right runoffs were three-way-triangle-whatevers, so that couldn't be done. For a mild degree of consistency (or stupidity) the margin given when that happened is the one needed for the left candidate to win. Errors certain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You didn't use my base map

Mostly this was my way of working through the results, so I wanted something a little larger to get a feel for things. Would likely use yours for a party lead map, if I feel sufficiently insane at any point (which is... probable. Wouldn't take long to work out uselessly specific keys, you see...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the new PS deputies - Olivier Ferrand (Bouches-du-Rhône 8th) - has died suddenly.