French legislative election 2012

[Zanas]

You know what ? I'd like lil' miss sunshine MMLP to be elected in Vaucluse-3. Among my reasons :

- she's hot, I'm so depressed to say it, but she is, really.
- let's send a 22-year-old in her law studies to the National Assembly, she will certainly succeed in both her careers...
- let's see how a youngster like this can stand in the "questions au gouvernement" next to the vieux-briscards
- for finals, let the FN have some kind of political responsibility, and not one where they can do harm, just to see them fail badly
- she's so hot, that's disgusting.... :-(

[Zanas]

http ://www .marianne2.fr/photo/art/default/957793-1132498.jpg?v=1339357951

(remove the spaces, the forum won't let me post a link cause I'm a noob apparently )

That, from political standards, is pretty hot.

Such a pity her head is so full of sh**t...

Don't get me wrong, I'm a leftie, FG activist, but you've got to admit some things

[Zanas]

Wow wow wow wow wow !

I must have a thing for blondes cause I still prefer that to Duflot or Filippetti (though I could follow you on Vallaud-Belkacem...)

BUT

that's not in any way political

AND

I want her politically dead, as soon as possible.

We seem to be among educated people here, let's try not to put words in each other's mouths

Also, I made a list of 92 "swing" circonscriptions that might be worth following on next Sunday. I'll post it here shortly.

[Zanas]

Here are the first ones.

Legend :

Département-n° constituency (T means triangulaire) (potential surprise winner with forecast vote percentage with my tambouille ) Famous candidate if there is one

I've taken big bad fab's last updated map (on his French-speaking blog) into account as to who would be a surprise winner in each constituency. Therefore, it may not seem a surprise to you, and it may even be an incumbent. G means gauche, that is left, D means droite, that is right. I'm not putting the third party in triangulaires if it is irrelevant as to who will win.

If you have (G48), it means the right still has a good shot at winning this seat, since I'm projecting 48% in the runoff for the left, but some reasons make me think (media exposure, local situation, massive mobilization or demotivation on either side, good or bad vote transfers on eather side, and so on...) that it's still winnable for the left, and would be a noticeable achievement.

Some of these constituencies could achieve or unachieve a department-grand-slam. I'll try to advertise this by displaying for example G-GS if it achieves a left grand slam in the department, or D-GS if it prevents a right grand slam (it will almost certainly never be the other way around...)

Do not hesitate to discuss ! Enjoy !

Ain-1 (G50,5) D-GS
Ain-2 T (G39 D38,8) D-GS
Aisne-2 (G52) Bertrand
Alpes-M-2 (G48,5) Aschieri D-GS
Bouches-du-R-1 (G49,2)
12 T (G38 D34)
15 T (G36 D38)
Calvados-5 (G49,8)
Charente-M-4 (G48) Bussereau
Côte d'Or-2 (G50,6)
Côtes d'Armor-3 (G49,2) G-GS

Oh and one last thing : these are not wishes, these are projections. Well, some are both, and some are not.

[Zanas]

After this... charming interlude, here is the following :

Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99) (yes, literally !)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano

I'll only be doing mainland France, which excepts Corsica, overseas and abroad-living citizens, beacause I can't handle how things work in those barbaric places...

[Zanas]

I think this map might hint to Morano's reelection, very sadly... If only we could get rid of her permanently, she's a shame for our country.

[Zanas]

Though in the case of Schwingy Le Pen, it may indeed be a bid for FN types to vote with their crotches--they being the sort who *would* go for "Hey, I'm a hottie!  Vote for me!" (at least in theory)

You know what ? I was thinking to myself just that. This electorate is quite capable of this.

Anyways, here is my complete list of constituencies worth following. I'm posting the whole of it here even though I started earlier, it should be easier to check out for you. The mode d'emploi is on hte previous page.

Ain-1 (G50,5) D-GS
Ain-2 T (G39 D38,8) D-GS
Aisne-2 (G52) Bertrand
Alpes-M-2 (G48,5) Aschieri D-GS
Bouches-du-R-1 (G49,2)
12 T (G38 D34)
15 T (G36 D38)
Calvados-5 (G49,8)
Charente-M-4 (G48) Bussereau
Côte d'Or-2 (G50,6)
Côtes d'Armor-3 (G49,2) G-GS
Doubs-3 (G50,04)
Eure-3 (G50,3) Morin
Eure-et-Loir-1 (G48,7) D-GS
Gard-2 (G38 FN37) Collard
Gironde-8 (G48,5) G-GS
Hérault-6 (G39 D37) G-GS
Indre-et-Loire-5 (G48,5) G-GS
Jura-1 (G49,4) D-GS
Loire-Atlantique-7 (G49,6) G-GS
Loiret-1 (G49,9) D-GS
2 (G50,7) D-GS
6 (G49,6) D-GS
Manche-1 (G48,5) Le Rachinel
3 (G49,99)
Marne-1 (G49,9) D-GS
Meurthe-et-Moselle-5 (D48,7) Morano
Meuse-2 (D51,7) D-GS
Morbihan-2 (G49) G-GS
Moselle-2 (G47,5) (I live next to it so my hopes are up…)
7 (G39 D37)
9 (G49)
Nord-14 (G48,8)
15 (D49,4)
21 (G47) (long shot)
Oise-7 (G49)
Pas-de-Calais-11 (FN48,4) Le Pen, Mélenchon
Puy-de-Dôme-3 (D48) G-GS Louis Giscard d’Estaing
Pyrénées-A-4 (G49,5) G-GS Lassalle
Bas-Rhin-2 (D47)
3 (G49,4)
Rhône-4 (G48)
12 (G48,7)
Saône-et-Loire-1 (G50,6) G-GS if both
4 (G49,6) G-GS if both
Sarthe-1 (G51,5) G-GS
5 (D49) G-GS
Paris-1 (G48)
Seine-Maritime-2 (G50,5) G-GS
10 (D48,5) G-GS
Seine-et-Marne-1 (G50,5)
3 (G48) Jégo
7 (D48,4)
Yvelines-12 (G48,5) Douillet
Somme-2 (G52)
4 (G49)
Tarn-1 (G50,3) G-GS
Var-2 (G38 D40) D-GS
Vaucluse-3 (FN34 D33 G33) Marion Maréchal-Le Pen
Vendée-2 (G50,1) D-GS
Yonne-2 (G49,5)
Essonne-4 (G50,2) Kosciusko-Morizet
Hauts-de-Seine-10 (G48,5) Santini
12 (D49,5)
13 (G51) Devedjian
Val-de-Marne-4 (G50,8)
5 (G49,97)
Val d'Oise-1 (D51)
2 (G51)
6 (G48,5)

Since I cowardly based my own predictions on yours, big bad fab, and I was too lazy to run through overseas circos, I'll need your numbers in order to deduce my final prognosis.

Feel free to discuss !

[Zanas]

Actually, Marine Le Pen isn't the best shot at having FN députés. I would see her fail at 48,5-49 tops.

Much more is expected of her niece in Vaucluse, who really has a good chance of getting to the Palais Bourbon (at 22...), and hideous lawyer Collard in Gard, who also stands a good chance of being elected.

Since big bad fab published his projected results, I'll post mine :

FG 10
reg/ind 3

EELV 23

PS-PRG-DVG 338

Modem 2

Right 199

FN 1
Other extreme right 1

This would be a very comfortable majority, in between the likes of those of 2002 and the incumbent 2007 one.

It would fail just a few seats short of the 3/5 majority of the whole Congress (Assemblée+Sénat) that is needed to reform the Constitution.

But that'll probably a bit lower, since I'm a leftist and a very optimistic one !

[Zanas]

I don't think Philippot has even the slightest shot at being elected. It's Forbach. The mayor is running against him, which could get some voters to finally wake up on the 2nd round et get to vote (not to mention PS-members attached to any middle-sized municipality, employees of the mairie, and so on...). In Forbach, people are bound to vote either for FN or FG or PS indifferently, cause they just don't have any ing clue as to how any ing thing works in politics !

And there are also lots of cités, which tend to vote between 20 and 40% in whatever election you throw at them, but could get to the polling stations a little bit more on this particular Sunday, and not to vote for Philippot of course...

Finally, Forbach-Freyming old mining constituency will have a left representative which correspond to its history, even if it's by sheer dumb luck... And I believe the neighbouring one of the same type, Creutzwald-Carling, will too in a triangulaire.

Other than that, I believe Le Pen will strike 48, maybe 49, but will fail. But Collard clearly has a chance, and I also believe Maréchal-Le Pen has a chance in Vaucluse, perhaps their best one...

As to the touiteurgate, the second constituency poll published this week is again in La Rochelle, which is in fact a rather dull constituency politically... I don't want to live in this country anymore (but others might be even worst, so I'll stay anyway...)

[Zanas]

It's not useless at all ! You can clearly see a yellow-orange north-east and south-east, the surroundings of Limousin and piedmont of Pyrénées with dark red, the traditional left strongholds since... like forever (at least 1848 for Limousin, maybe even 1790 if you look this thoroughly). You see that the "banlieue rouge" AND the "banlieue bleue" of Paris (red and blue districts, which are opposit colors than in an American context by the way...) have weakened to leave way to a traditional left-right (purple in your map) fight nearly everywhere around Paris.

[Zanas]

Yes, that was uncalled for.

Nevertheless, Hashemite and Sibboleth are right :
- you take PS : 35,8
- you take FG+EELV*90% : 8,7
- you take NPA+LO*75% : 0,8
That's 45,3 for the left.

- you take UMP+DVD+MPF : 35,2
- you take DLR*80% : 1
- you take AEI*50% : 0,2
That's 36,4 for the right.

Take 16,8 for the FN, give 12% = 2 to the left, give 60% = 10 to the right, the other 4,8 won't vote.

You still have 47,3 for the left and 46,4 for the right, which makes 50,5 % left and 49,5 % right in terms of valid votes. And that's with not so good transfers for the left.

So Yonne-1 leans left in this election, yeah.

[Zanas]

fab you were right : Gorges in Eure-et-Loir-1 makes it, but really close...

[Zanas]

In Loiret, I knew it wouldn't be a right grand slam anymore. Except I was counting on the 2nd to go left and Grouard was reelected for UMP with 350 votes ahead only. Instead it was the 6th that went PS for... 109 votes !!

[Zanas]

Hérault's 6th constituency may be the tightest race in the elections: PS wins with 39,82%, 10 votes ahead of the UMP candidate. The deputy originally elected in 2007, doctor Paul-Henri Cugnenc, died a week into his second mandate.

One left pickup in Alsace - Bas-Rhin's second 52,2-47,8. Has gone for the left only once in 1981.

I'd hate to appear too self-satisfied, but I got those 2 right

[Zanas]

Manche-3 is a large 52,4 left victory. I only put 49,99 for the left there, but it was tossup in my mind.

[Zanas]

As I felt it coming, Saône-et-Loire is all left, even if it's by only 380 votes in the 4th !