VA-Sen: A Choice Of 2 Ex-Governors (NYT)

[RogueBeaver]

Food for thought.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/28/us/politics/virginia-senate-race-a-choice-of-ex-governors.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&gwh=7CFA5FC60A3BD77740CB82391DF11C4B&ref=politics

[nkpatel1279]

2008(Warner-D vs Gilmore-R) resulted in a landslide victory for Warner-D.
Another choice of 2 ex Governor in VA is 2000(Robb-D who was a weak incumbent whose popularity got damaged due to scandals- he survived in 1994 due to a controversial GOP challenger vs Allen-R a recent popular former Governor.

[Kevin]

I live in VA(NOVA to be exact) and the NY Times was largely spot on with this in many ways. The problem that both Allen and Kaine face is that they are viewed by alot of voters as damaged goods.

Allen still has the Macaca comment still haunting him along with the fact that he is viewed as an outdated candidate for Virgina, compared to someone like Bob McDonnell or Bill Bolling.

While Kaine spent much of his governorship chasing aspirations outside VA like DNC chairman at the cost of the time he was focused on issues effecting the state(think Mitt Romney when he was gov of MA). Additionally, Kaine in the course of his support of both candidate and now President Obama as well as the national Dems as a whole, took some positions that are very unpopular throughout Virginia.

Kaine electorally(as well as Obama) also is going to have problems this time around in 2012. As most successful statewide Democratic candidates in VA since 2000, have done very well in areas throughout the state not just in NOVA(ex. rural parts of the state, VA Beach etc). Kaine and Obama have virtually little to none appeal in these areas anymore outside of Northern VA. And even then they both have problems, out the Northern VA counties that Kaine(2005) and Obama(2008) won, they both can only count on Democratic Arlington and Alexandra as well as reliably blue Fairfax in this election. The two other NOVA counties that pushed them over the top in 2005 and 2008 Loudoun and Prince William have shifted back towards the Republicans since 2009. Thus leaving them both little recourse elsewhere in the state, esp considering many of the established political groupings in VA like wealthy suburban voters, independents, and some others aren't strongly supporting ether of them this time around. 

[RogueBeaver]

Regardless, both men's fates are still tied to their presidential candidate's, right?

[Kevin]

Regardless, both men's fates are still tied to their presidential candidate's, right?

Yes, more or less. Allen's screwed if Obama wins VA again, since they means that the President prob did well enough in NOVA to help carry Kaine on his coattails. While Kaine's chances are significantly diminished if Romney wins Virginia, because Kaine is going to have big problems with rural voters/white voters in other suburban parts of the state outside of NOVA, Kaine is going to have more trouble with independents due to his closeness with Obama and the Democratic establishment overall.

However, Allen could still win if Obama carries VA or vice versa as weirder things have happened in politics in the past.

[nkpatel1279]

What are the odds in 2014, when former Governor/current Senator Mark Warner is up for re-election, soon to be former Governor Bob McDonnell decides to run for the US Senate.

[Kevin]

What are the odds in 2014, when former Governor/current Senator Mark Warner is up for re-election, soon to be former Governor Bob McDonnell decides to run for the US Senate.

Tbh, I really don't know as there has been basically no talk or speculation of Gov. McDonnell running against Warner in 2014. Probably due to the strong possibility that despite the fairly good approvals of McDonnell overall he still wouldn't be able to beat Warner even in a bad year for Democrats. This is due to the fact that Mark Warner still is popular amongst voters across VA, despite the fact that he is beginning to be regarded as a largely unremarkable Senator. However, this has helped him avoid the controversy and problems that surround people like Kaine.

Most of the talk in Republican circles that I know of swirls around the upcoming governor's race in 2013(Cucinelli Vs. Bolling) and any mention of McDonnell at this time  is whether he is going to be Romney's running mate or not?

That's all I can really give you at the moment.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

What are the odds in 2014, when former Governor/current Senator Mark Warner is up for re-election, soon to be former Governor Bob McDonnell decides to run for the US Senate.

Warner would crush him.

[RogueBeaver]

I want Allen to win. But republican or not, you have to wonder, what hope are the Allen people clinging to seeing that the macaca gaffe is still out there?

It only matters if he says it again. Otherwise, no one who isn't already voting for Kaine cares about a 6-year old gaffe.