Dutch general election - September 2012

[Insula Dei]

SGP-leader Cornelis Van der Staaij meanwhile has received police bodyguards after he copied Todd Akin's rape comments in an interview. Seems like something Americans might find interesting.

[Diouf]

PvdA doing well isn't necessarily bad for Roemer though, is it?

Not necessarily, but it does mean that PvdA could form a coalition without the SP. Not that it's very likely, but different shapes of the Paars Plus/Purple Plus is available with those poll numbers. VVD + PvdA + D66 + CU and/or GL. But I guess that neither VVD nor PvdA would do Purple since they will most likely lose votes to SP and PVV with such a coalition. PVV would attack VVD on immigration policy, and the SP will attack PvdA over the economic policy.

The most likely still looks like a centre-left coalition. Such a coalition will probably be SP + PvdA + some of CDA, D66, CU, GL. One or more of those parties could be supporting parties instead of government parties.

If PvdA passes SP in the polls, then of course Emile Roemer is probably not the logical PM anymore.

[Insula Dei]

@Freek or any other Dutch Posters:

What is your estimation of the two recent debates (RTL4 and EO)? Roemer seems to be thought to have done poorly in the RTL-debate? I caught a bit of the EO/Knevel & Vandenbrink debate, and in my not entirely unbiased opinion Roemer did okay, while Rutte just was generally insufferable.

Also how are debates organized? Who else gets to hold a debate? Judging from wikipedia there still are an important RTL4, an important AVRO/TROS debate and an important NOS-debate left?

[freek]

@Freek or any other Dutch Posters:

What is your estimation of the two recent debates (RTL4 and EO)? Roemer seems to be thought to have done poorly in the RTL-debate? I caught a bit of the EO/Knevel & Vandenbrink debate, and in my not entirely unbiased opinion Roemer did okay, while Rutte just was generally insufferable.

I didn't see the EO debate, apparently the viewers considered Samsom to be the winner again.

Remarkable about the RTL4 debate was Rutte, Roemer and Wilders accusing each other of lying, and Samsom being the only one who trying to say something about policy.

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There is also the debate on Radio 1 (public radio).

Apart from public broadcasting (Dutch public broadcasting is rather peculiar, broadcasting associations are mostly member based, and share TV and radio channels) there are 2 groups of commercial broadcasters. The RTL group and the SBS group. SBS is not interested in political debates, so only public broadcasting and RTL organizes debates.

Some are tradition:
- the AVRO/TROS debate, organised with the University of Rotterdam;
- 2 NOS debates on the evening before the elections, and on election night;
- 1 debate by RTL4
- the debate by Radio 1

All other debates are extra. Both the first RTL4 debate (with only 4 participants) as the EO debate was new. Participation is by invitation. Traditionally smaller parties are pissed about not being invited to some or all debates.

[Insula Dei]

Why does the EO have a debate, anyway? I can understand why the AVRO/TROS and the NOS do, but shouldn't the KRO and the NCRV also be included if the EO is?

[freek]

Why does the EO have a debate, anyway? I can understand why the AVRO/TROS and the NOS do, but shouldn't the KRO and the NCRV also be included if the EO is?

Debates are not organized along bloodlines. Public broadcasting is much more complicated than just that.

AVRO and TROS cooperate in current affairs program EenVandaag, which organizes the debate together with Rotterdam University.  In the past EO and TROS cooperated in the same program.

 In 2010 a debate was organized by the VARA program Pauw&Witteman,  which is a late night current affairs talk show. EO Knevel&Van den Brink is broadcast in the same time slot while Pauw&Witteman is on summer break. They were scheduled to remain on summer break until after the elections. However,  a compromise was found, and both shows will alternate daily until the elections.

[Insula Dei]

Aha, that clears things up for me. The Dutch Broadcasting system is positively labyrinthine.

[freek]

Latest Synovate poll

VVD 34 (nc)
SP 27 (-3)
PvdA 26 (+4)
PVV 20 (+1)
D66 14 (nc)
CDA 13 (-1)
CU 5 (-1)
GL 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)

PvdA is gaining fast. PvdA/VVD/D66 is on 74 seats at the moment.

[Zanas]

Well that sure sucks as hell... -__-

What could have possibly gone so wrong for the SP and/or so good for the PvdA to shift so quickly ? O_o'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that sure sucks as hell... -__-

What could have possibly gone so wrong for the SP and/or so good for the PvdA to shift so quickly ? O_o'

Seems it was the telly debates.

[YL]

To be honest I've been half expecting that to happen all along.  So are we now looking at a "Paars" type coalition?

I don't know who I'd actually vote for, possibly GL though PvdA, SP and D66 (though that chart suggests they've become a bit right-wing for my taste) are also possibilities.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, that's sad. Not that I had much hopes, but you never know...

[freek]

New Synovate poll (today)

VVD 35 (+1)
PvdA 30 (+4)
SP 24 (-3)
PVV 18 (-2)
CDA 14 (+1)
D66 14 (nc)
CU 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (nc)
GL 3 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)

[freek]

Well that sure sucks as hell... -__-

What could have possibly gone so wrong for the SP and/or so good for the PvdA to shift so quickly ? O_o'

Seems it was the telly debates.

Indeed.  Combined with strategic voting,  I guess.

[Insula Dei]

New Synovate poll (today)

VVD 35 (+1)
PvdA 30 (+4)
SP 24 (-3)
PVV 18 (-2)
CDA 14 (+1)
D66 14 (nc)
CU 4 (-1)
PvdD 4 (nc)
GL 3 (-1)
SGP 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (+1)

Jesus wept.

[You kip if you want to...]

A first place finish from Labour would be HILARIOUS.

[freek]

Forgot about the latest Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond poll (also September 3). This graph is self-explanatory:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of these days someone is going to have to explain the Dutch electorate (as it is now) to me.

[Leftbehind]

I thought the SP would be destined to sit out the next government even in its high figures, because it'd be impossible to form one worth bothering about, but it's still disappointing to see those drops.

[Diouf]

In addition to the televised debates, it is suggested that the calculations made by the Centraal Planbureau(CPB) has hurt SP severely. The CPB is the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and it analyzed the impact on the economy that each party's programme would have. The analysis suggests that the SP plan will mean 250.000 jobs less in 2040; mainly due to the worsening of the business climate as I understand it. CPB is a part of the ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, but is fully independent as far as the contents of its work are concerned according to their website.

The biggest Dutch newspaper de Telegraaf had this "loss of 250.000 job" story at their front page that critized the SP quite a lot.

[You kip if you want to...]

I guess we'll just have to take heart that the election'll finish with a slightly more left-wing government than before. Labour could still some how pull an unexpected finish in first place, but I guess it's near impossible.

[Insula Dei]

It'd be hilarious if the PvdA would for the third election in a row finish within breathing distance of largest party status. Under three different leaders, too.

[Zuza]

It seems that coalition will be Purple.

[Colbert]

In addition to the televised debates, it is suggested that the calculations made by the Centraal Planbureau(CPB) has hurt SP severely. The CPB is the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and it analyzed the impact on the economy that each party's programme would have. The analysis suggests that the SP plan will mean 250.000 jobs less in 2040; mainly due to the worsening of the business climate as I understand it. CPB is a part of the ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, but is fully independent as far as the contents of its work are concerned according to their website.

The biggest Dutch newspaper de Telegraaf had this "loss of 250.000 job" story at their front page that critized the SP quite a lot.

independant....

[freek]

In addition to the televised debates, it is suggested that the calculations made by the Centraal Planbureau(CPB) has hurt SP severely. The CPB is the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and it analyzed the impact on the economy that each party's programme would have. The analysis suggests that the SP plan will mean 250.000 jobs less in 2040; mainly due to the worsening of the business climate as I understand it. CPB is a part of the ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, but is fully independent as far as the contents of its work are concerned according to their website.

Yes, CPB is independent. Participation in the CPB analysis is voluntary. It gives an interesting analysis of Dutch election manifestos, but there are reasons to remain critical towards the results. It is not clear how correct the economic models are, that are used by CPB. Parties know how to tweak their input for the models, to maximize the results.

The analysis gives so many results (# of jobs created, budget deficit, economic growth, government debt, etc), both for the short term and the long term, that every party can pick a result that turns out positive for them.

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However, all these voters seem to move to the PvdA. Since de Telegraaf is the Dutch equivalent of the Daily Mail, I am not sure if this is the intended result of the paper.