Dutch general election - September 2012

[Insula Dei]

Based on results so far (0.7% of votes counted) the ANP projects:

VVD: 44
PvdA: 40
PVV: 14
SP: 14
CDA: 13
CU: 4
SGP: 4
GL: 3
PvdD: 2
50+: 2

This is not likely to be 100% accurate with the crazy swings of tonight of course.

[jeron]

I really can't trust an electorate that is capable of switching in three weeks from SP 35 PvdA 20 towards PvdA 40 SP 15 !! Even though they don't have first past the post where that could *at least* make sense, but friggin' proportional representation !! Why do nobody have something like a political culture nowadays ? Why don't anyone have some kind of political consistency ?

And also, why the f***ing hell would they vote for government moderate centerish rubbish parties that will keep doing the exact f***ing same thing that put them all in deep sh!t in the first place ?

It's official, I now resume hating the Dutch voters.

The only two _good_ news I can think of are the collapse of PVV, but I do not get it either, but it feels good of course, and the PvdD keeping their 2 seats, cause I'm kind of a vegetarian.

Oh, AND one last thing : nobody calls left-wing a party that is ready to govern with the right, whatever its motives on bloody debt reduction or sh!t may be : you govern with the right, except maybe in time of war or invasion, you're center, so you're right-wing. Period. PvdA is right-wing, SPD is, SPÖ is.

Don't you think that maybe the crazy attitude was when so many people declared to vote SP and not now? because historically PVDA has always had more votes than SP, so they have just gone back to their usual attitude. And probably dutch socialdemocrats are simply more keen to find a compromise with VVD on remaining in a stable pro-Europe pattern than trying some euroskeptic experiment, like they did in the past (Kok government, which was also a positive period for economy)

At one point it looked like SP might become the largest party. But during the campaign it seemed that the more people saw of Roemer, the less they trusted him. He just did not make much of an impression during the debates.

[Zanas]

Yeah I just went over the top, I was just a bit frustrated. But it's the second time the SP had the occasion of overtaking the pale PvdA, and still nothing, well at least the fascists didn't take the occasion this time.

But what you call "a stable pro-Europe pattern" is just a joke really, you have to realize that. Anything all those moderate hero parties are trying to get with their "golden rules"  is just a joke while the BCE cannot lend to states and only private banks can.

It's only stable for the top 1%, as always...

[Zanas]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amsterdam is in: PvdA 36.2, VVD 19.1, D66 14.9, SP 9.3, PVV 6.3, GL 5.4, PvdD 3.1, CDA 2.2

[Iannis]

I really can't trust an electorate that is capable of switching in three weeks from SP 35 PvdA 20 towards PvdA 40 SP 15 !! Even though they don't have first past the post where that could *at least* make sense, but friggin' proportional representation !! Why do nobody have something like a political culture nowadays ? Why don't anyone have some kind of political consistency ?

And also, why the f***ing hell would they vote for government moderate centerish rubbish parties that will keep doing the exact f***ing same thing that put them all in deep sh!t in the first place ?

It's official, I now resume hating the Dutch voters.

The only two _good_ news I can think of are the collapse of PVV, but I do not get it either, but it feels good of course, and the PvdD keeping their 2 seats, cause I'm kind of a vegetarian.

Oh, AND one last thing : nobody calls left-wing a party that is ready to govern with the right, whatever its motives on bloody debt reduction or sh!t may be : you govern with the right, except maybe in time of war or invasion, you're center, so you're right-wing. Period. PvdA is right-wing, SPD is, SPÖ is.

Don't you think that maybe the crazy attitude was when so many people declared to vote SP and not now? because historically PVDA has always had more votes than SP, so they have just gone back to their usual attitude. And probably dutch socialdemocrats are simply more keen to find a compromise with VVD on remaining in a stable pro-Europe pattern than trying some euroskeptic experiment, like they did in the past (Kok government, which was also a positive period for economy)

At one point it looked like SP might become the largest party. But during the campaign it seemed that the more people saw of Roemer, the less they trusted him. He just did not make much of an impression during the debates.

Sort of Melenchon-like flop, I'm not unhappy about that, I'm just quite sad for CDA but satisfied for VVD

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Very small changes in Amsterdam. Why is that?

[Zanas]

NOS Nieuws just shifted their projection. It is now :
VVD 41
PvdA 37
SP 16
PVV 15
CDA 13
D66 12
CU 4
SGP 4
GL 3
PvdD 3
50+ 2

If it sitcks as is, it is a big slam in the head for GroenLinks :S

[Insula Dei]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very small changes in Amsterdam. Why is that?

Job Cohen was the PvdA leader in 2010.

[Insula Dei]

Very small changes in Amsterdam. Why is that?

You can't press the water from a stone, I suppose.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Very small changes in Amsterdam. Why is that?

Job Cohen was the PvdA leader in 2010.

So PvdA in Amsterdam was already rather maxed out in 2010 due to favourite son effect. Got it!

[Iannis]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

In France there is a totally innatural electoral system that forces to vote or right or left but human nature is not like this, it's more complex and dutch system is rightly designed to recognized it.

[jeron]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

[Insula Dei]

Wow the CDA in urban areas just never ceases to amaze.

[nimh]

Ai, in Oss, the oldest SP bulwark in local politics, the VVD comes out on top this time at 26%, with Labour placing second at 21% and the SP in third at 20%. The Socialists were the largest party here in the national elections of 2006, with 31% of the vote, as well as in 2010, when its 19% was enough to come out on top in an extremely fragmented field. So no loss in percentage point this time, but a symbolic drop from first to third place.

Oss is a provincial town in the southern province of Brabant with an industrial tradition, and has been well-known as SP bulwark, the same way Finsterwolde in the far northeast of the country used to be the ultimate Communist Party municipality and Rucphen in the southwest always has one of the best results for the far right. The SP entered the local council here in 1974, in its Maoist days, and has been the biggest party in the local council since 1998. Its local support seems to have been slipping a bit though: whereas it received 37-38% of the vote in the local elections of 1998 and 2002, it fell back to 29% in 2006 and 23% in 2010. That's local election results, and suggests the slide started before Jan Marijnissen, who is from Oss, stepped down as national SP leader.

In nearby Boxmeer, meanwhile, where the current SP leader Emiel Roemer is from, the SP scored 32% of the vote today, down a tad from last time (34%). It will surely be the party's best result tonight.

[Insula Dei]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

Never having to govern with the VVD would perhaps be an impossible dreal, but governing without Rutte can't be too much to hope for.

[Leftbehind]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

[jeron]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It has gone back to 3 seats now and a lot of larger cities have not reported yet, so SGP will not end up with 4 seats

[nimh]

But it's the second time the SP had the occasion of overtaking the pale PvdA, and still nothing

Third time, even ... back in 2003, a little less than two months before the elections, the SP were at over 20 seats in the polls and just 5 seats behind the PvdA. In 2006, a week before the elections, the SP was close to 30 seats in the polls and just 2-3 seats behind the PvdA. And this year, of course, just a month ago the SP was at 35 seats and the PvdA at just 19. It's a serial problem by now.

Polling data from here (let's see if I'm allowed to post a link yet - no... okay I'll do it like this again): www dot allepeilingen dot com / index dot php / vergelijk-peiling-met-uitslag-2002-2003-2006-2010-en-2012-sp dot html

[Leftbehind]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It has gone back to 3 seats now and a lot of larger cities have not reported yet, so SGP will not end up with 4 seats

Ah. Thought they were declared rather than estimates!

[nimh]

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It would be, yes. Incredibly enough, the SGP has had either 2 seats or 3 seats since ... wait for it ... 1925.

[Insula Dei]

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It would be, yes. Incredibly enough, the SGP has had either 2 seats or 3 seats since ... wait for it ... 1925.

Their voters breed enough to overcome the problem of people leaving the flock, no?

[nimh]

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It would be, yes. Incredibly enough, the SGP has had either 2 seats or 3 seats since ... wait for it ... 1925.

The fact that they'll apparently be back up to 3 now, though, does remind me of this post by Erik Voeten on the political science blog The Monkey Cage, in which he suggested that Van der Staaij's Akin-like remark about rape and pregnancy was a deliberate ploy to gain publicity and extra votes: themonkeycage dot org / blog / 2012 / 08 / 30 / the-diffusion-of-stupid-and-offensive-ideas

(I didn't agree at the time, but they certainly don't seem to have been hurt by his remarks..

[Zanas]

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

Do you realize how much this reasoning is politically flawed ?

It says : you have to achieve something, anything, so you have to govern, so you have to govern with whichever the main parties might be at the time.

Firstly, that's what dragged CDA as low as they are now, because they could not at any time step down government and think a bit of what they actually thought and wanted to implement.

And secondly, it says that any party must do anything according to whichever circumstances are present. No convictions. No beliefs. No projects. Only emergency measures with whoever is on top that day. I'm sorry but a left-wing party has to ensure the defense of the workers class, and that is just not possible with right-wing parties, so they just stay in opposition and try to be more convincing to that worker class next time. They don't just say "we have to at least do something" that will nearly certainly be counter-productive to the class they ought to defend.

Are you a political activist of any party ?