Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

Polling stations are open tomorrow between 0730 and 2100, except for the Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba and Sint Eustatius, where the polling stations open and close 6 hours later.

Exit polls will be published immediately after 2100, first results around 2200, more or less final results around 0100 (while the polls in the Caribbean are still open...).

This is the weirdest way of counting hours I've ever seen. Is that how you do in Netherlands ?

You mean the notation? I spent too much time at work. Usually it is hh.mm, however I work in IT, working on a computer program that uses hhmm. I hadn't even noticed that something was missing. I am glad my holiday starts tomorrow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, I see. The "0" preceding single-digit hours is also quite unusual I think.

[freek]

And finally Synovate/Politieke Barometer:

VVD 37
PvdA 36

Other parties: Synovate on the right:

[Insula Dei]

Nice spicy final debate.

Buma: Mr. Wilders, I'd like to return for a minute to your story about the Catshuis negotiations. I was there as well, and...
Wilders: Were you? I don't remember.

Rutte still didn't get the treatment he deserves, of course.

EDIT: Also, can we have Femke Halsema back at the head of GroenLinks? Sap really is horrible.

[freek]

Today, there were mock elections on quite a few high schools (12-18 years), over 100.000 votes. The results exaggerate the 'real' results, and especially the exaggerate the trends in the polls, but the changes since 2010 are interesting:

PvdA 35 (+10)
VVD 28 (nc)
PVV 19 (-11)
SP 17 (+5)
D66 15 (+1)
Pirates 14 (+6)
PvdD 8 (+1)
GL 6 (-7)
CDA 5 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (+1)
50PLUS 1 (new)
PvdT (Future Party) 1 (new)
ToN n/a (-1)

[Insula Dei]

Today, there were mock elections on quite a few high schools (12-18 years), over 100.000 votes. The results exaggerate the 'real' results, and especially the exaggerate the trends in the polls, but the changes since 2010 are interesting:

PvdA 35 (+10)
VVD 28 (nc)
PVV 19 (-11)
D66 15 (+1)
Pirates 14 (+6)
PvdD 8 (+1)
GL 6 (-7)
CDA 5 (-1)
CU 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (+1)
50PLUS 1 (new)
PvdT (Future Party) 1 (new)
ToN n/a (-1)

You missed the SP.

[Zuza]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

[Zanas]

I know I said earlier I would boycott the predictions thing, but as a pessimistic kind of fellow, I would go VVD just over PvdA, then PVV, then SP just a bit over D66, then CDA and the others.

The reason I say this is that when you support the far-left, you know the fascists always end up polling better than you do by doing nothing at all. It's sad cause it's true...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Ah, maybe 50Plus are like Gil after all.

[Leftbehind]

I know I said earlier I would boycott the predictions thing, but as a pessimistic kind of fellow, I would go VVD just over PvdA, then PVV, then SP just a bit over D66, then CDA and the others.

The reason I say this is that when you support the far-left, you know the fascists always end up polling better than you do by doing nothing at all. It's sad cause it's true...

I'd agree, but I'd place SP just behind PVV. Maybe I'm making an error of using us two as a sample, but I think the far-left are unreliable turnouts (pessimism being one of the many factors), whilst there's always a shy fascist vote unrecorded in pre-election polls. 

[Insula Dei]

1. If the SP were to come in behind the PVV, the PvdA would almost certainly have a 3-4 seat lead over the VVD. Those votes would have to come from somewhere. In fact, some analysts are speculating about how the 'Gordijnbonus' (// the 'Bradley effect') might hand Samsom the job of Prime Minister.

2. If the SP were to come in behind the PVV, they'd have had one a truly catastrophical election. Can't really see that happen.

3. I'm going to disagree with most analysts and say that the formation won't be significantly longer than usual: VVD/PvdA/D66 is really the only possibility. The main problem then is who they'll get to tolerate them in the First Chamber. Can't imagine the CDA will be keen on another election anytime soon.

[Insula Dei]

For completeness' sake, here are the results from the Volkskrant's 'Prediction Competition':

PvdA: 34
VVD: 33
SP: 22
PVV: 19
CDA: 15
D66: 12
GL: 5
Cu: 5
PvdD: 2
SGP: 2
50+: 1
DPK: 0

[Zuza]

SP just a bit over D66

Now they are separated by 10 seats. Such severe loss for SP is impossible.

[freek]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Not every high school student takes it seriously, which also explains the seat for the PvdT.

[MaxQue]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Not every high school student takes it seriously, which also explains the seat for the PvdT.

And what is the PvdT? Partij van de T??

[freek]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Not every high school student takes it seriously, which also explains the seat for the PvdT.

And what is the PvdT? Partij van de T??

Toekomst. Future Party. Led by TV personality and national clown Johan Vlemmix. It used to be the Dutch version of the Monster Raving Loony Party, but have now moved to a more serious policy. They also participated in 2002&2003.

In 2003, their election broadcast was this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8tVYE3m76A

[Tender Branson]

Infographic about the election:

[YL]

Is it going to be possible for there to be any government that does not include both VVD AND PvdA? or is some sort of "grand coalition" almost inevitable?

A centre-left or left government is still possible based on most of the polls. This would be PvdA + SP + at least two out of D66, CDA, CU and GL. Not all of those parties would necessarily be a part of the government; some/one could be supporting party.

Is there any evidence that any of those parties (except maybe GL) would want to work with SP, though?

[Diouf]

Is it going to be possible for there to be any government that does not include both VVD AND PvdA? or is some sort of "grand coalition" almost inevitable?

A centre-left or left government is still possible based on most of the polls. This would be PvdA + SP + at least two out of D66, CDA, CU and GL. Not all of those parties would necessarily be a part of the government; some/one could be supporting party.

Is there any evidence that any of those parties (except maybe GL) would want to work with SP, though?

D66 has said that it is not excluding any party from the talks, but added that the chance of them forming a coalition with SP is "almost zero". CDA has said that it wouldn't help the left wing to a majority. CU has attacked SP + PvdA for not taking responsibility in the budget negotiations, but I haven't seen them ruling out a cooperation with those two parties; it will probably be even more difficult for them to work with the social liberal D66. GL is pretty positive towards the SP and a so-called progressive coalition.

Emile Roemer himself said that he preferred coalition with PvdA, GL and PvdD. He added that the party could work with D66 on culture and education, but had big disagreements with them on Europe and the labour market.

So coalition negotiations on such a centre-left or left government will indeed be difficult.

[freek]

Just returned from my shift at the polling station. Turnout until now is similar to 2010. Final turnout was 75% then.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The election's today? Thought it was on Sunday.

[freek]

The election's today? Thought it was on Sunday.

Nope. Elections are usually on Wednesdays. European elections on a Thursday, sometimes election day shifts to Tuesday due to some holiday.

The reason is religious. Calvinist protestants tend to dislike working on Sundays. Also, it saves money, because no civil servant has to work in the weekend.

[Zuza]

Not every high school student takes it seriously

Probably Pirates and PvdD results are also partly attributed to this (though I understand that they in any case would poll relatively high among school students).

[Insula Dei]

I could see a bit of a (relatively minor) PVV-boost after what happened in Libya yesterday. Probably just as well this election isn't next week.

[Insula Dei]

And Jolande Sap has already said she won't resign tonight regardless of the outcome for GL.