Dutch general election - September 2012

[freek]

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/content.asp?targetid=621

VVD: 33
SP: 28
PvdA: 22
PVV: 19
CDA: 16
D66: 15
GL: 5
CU: 6
SGP: 2
PvdD: 3
50+: 1

'plausible' coalitions:
VVD+CDA+PvdA+CU: 77/150
SP+PvdA+D66+GL(+CU) : 76/150, but obviously almost unworkable
VVD+PVV+CDA+SGP+CU: 76/150, but obviously unworkable
VVD+SP+PvdA+D66: 88/150, would be a very weird spin on Paars

No majority:
Paars+: 70/150
All Left: 74/150
All Right -PVV: 57/150

VVD/CDA/D66/GL/CU ("Kunduz"): 75/150
In 2 provinces a VVD/CDA/SP coalition is governing: 77/150

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Four months.

[freek]

The other major pollster is Maurice de Hond/Peil.nl

SP: 29
VVD: 28
PvdA: 20
PVV: 20
D66: 17
CDA: 15
GL: 7
CU: 6
SGP: 3
PvdD: 3
Other: 2

Other = 50+, Pirate Party and the new party of former PVV MP Hero Brinkman, the OBP (Onafhankelijke Burgerpartij / Independent Citizen's Party) (all 3 parties are hovering between 0-1 seats each)

[freek]

CDA needs to elect its leader first. At the moment there are six candidates:

Sybrand van Haersma Buma: leader of the CDA fraction in the Second Chamber
Henk Bleker: junior minister for Agriculture
Liesbeth Spies: Home Secretary
Madeleine van Toorenburg: CDA MP
Mona Keijzer: Alderman (Alderwoman?) of Purmerend (an Amsterdam suburb in Noord-Holland)
Marcel Wintels: Chairman of a group of polytechnic schools.

There are three polls:
Maurice de Hond polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 32%
Keijzer 30%
Bleker 10%
Wintels 10%
Spies 6%
Van Toorenburg 1%

Ipsos/Synovate polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 29%
Bleker 18%
Keijzer 11%
Wintels 11%
Spies 8%
Van Toorenburg 0%
Don't know: 23%

EenVandaag polled CDA members:
Van Haersma Buma 50%
Wintels 17%
Keijzer 16%
Bleker 5%
Spies 5%
Van Toorenburg 4%

All CDA members may vote until Friday May 18, when no candidate has 50+%, a second round will follow between the top two, until June 1.

[freek]

In 2 provinces a VVD/CDA/SP coalition is governing

How is it possible? Strange coalition - right and extreme left without moderates.

Both CDA and VVD are moderate parties,  and the SP has shifted away from the far left in the last 20 years.  On a national level a coalition of these three parties is highly unlikely,  but the responsibilities of Dutch provinces are quite limited (infrastructural planning, construction and maintenance of regional roads and waterways, supervision of municipalities, and a minor role in social welfare and nature conservation). Differences between the parties are much smaller on the provincial level.

PvdA is considered as difficult to negotiate with,  while SP is probably more down to earth.

[freek]

For a while during the spring of 2006, polling showed PvdA doing ridiculously well to the point they would have been able to form a majority with just SP.

March 2006: PvdA 61 seats, SP 18, GL 6, D66 2 seats. Oh, and PVV only had 1 seat in the polls at the time.

Back to 2012: the latest poll by Maurice de Hond/Peil.nl, May 27 (compared to the 2010 elections)

SP 30 (+15)
PVV 25 (+1), and gaining 8 seats in 1 month
VVD 24 (-7), losing 7 seats in 1 month
PvdA 21 (-9)
D66 16 (+6)
CDA 14 (-7)
GroenLinks 6 (-4)
CU 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (+1)
PvdD 3 (+1)
Others 2 (+2), apparently 3 parties are close to a seat: 50Plus, Piratenpartij and OBP.

The VVD loss may be attributed to 2 more or less related issues: VVD voters are not thrilled about the austerity measures of the Kunduz (or Spring) agreement between VVD, CDA, D66, GL and CU. Most measures turn out to be tax rises, where VVD voters prefer budget cuts, and a smaller government.

Also, the European Stabilty Mechanism-treaty was ratified by the Second Chamber this week. PVV was highly critical of the treaty, and of ratifying it before the elections. Many VVD-voters seem to agree with Wilders.

[freek]

How about the PVV coming in first since my understanding is whichever party comes in first gets to supply the prime-minister.   

No, that is not the case. Unlike for example Greece, the rules for forming a government in the Netherlands are unwritten. In the past, the Prime Minister was usually a member of the largest party of a coalition, but there have been exceptions, most recently in 1971. Also, the largest party does not have to be part of the coalition. Most recent example: 1982.

Until now, the following procedure is usually followed:
After the elections, the leaders of all parties elected to parliament visit the Queen, and give her advice. The same goes for the Speakers of both chambers, and the vice chairman of the Council of State. Based on the advice (or not) the Queen then usually appoints a mediator (or more than 1), usually with an assignment to investigate if a certain coalition is viable. That means that the Queen wants to know if a coalition agreement may be reached, with a majority in the Second Chamber.

These mediators tend to be former (Prime) ministers, governors of a province, or high ranking Senators.

There may be different rounds of negotiations, different mediators may be appointed with different assignments, other options for coalitions could be investigated, but it always take at least 2 months, and sometimes more. The record is 208 days, in 1981. In the end, a government is formed, and appointed by the Queen.

This year, the procedure is different. Some parties were not happy with the outcome and the procedure followed in 2010, or don't want the Queen to be part of the coalition forming process because of principle. So a majority (all parties except VVD, CDA, CU & SGP) changed the official regulations of the Second Chamber, from now on the Second Chamber will appoint the mediators, based on a parliamentary debate directly after the elections. Apart from appointing the government, the Queen will not be part of the process anymore.

I wouldn't be surprised though if this will be a one-off experiment, for the last 40 years the Second Chamber has tried before to reduce the role of the Queen, but in the end they always return to the old procedure.

[freek]

CDA needs to elect its leader first. At the moment there are six candidates:

Sybrand van Haersma Buma: leader of the CDA fraction in the Second Chamber
Henk Bleker: junior minister for Agriculture
Liesbeth Spies: Home Secretary
Madeleine van Toorenburg: CDA MP
Mona Keijzer: Alderman (Alderwoman?) of Purmerend (an Amsterdam suburb in Noord-Holland)
Marcel Wintels: Chairman of a group of polytechnic schools.

There are three polls:
Maurice de Hond polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 32%
Keijzer 30%
Bleker 10%
Wintels 10%
Spies 6%
Van Toorenburg 1%

Ipsos/Synovate polled CDA voters:
Van Haersma Buma 29%
Bleker 18%
Keijzer 11%
Wintels 11%
Spies 8%
Van Toorenburg 0%
Don't know: 23%

EenVandaag polled CDA members:
Van Haersma Buma 50%
Wintels 17%
Keijzer 16%
Bleker 5%
Spies 5%
Van Toorenburg 4%

All CDA members may vote until Friday May 18, when no candidate has 50+%, a second round will follow between the top two, until June 1.

I think I never posted the result of the first round of the CDA leadership elections:

Sybrand van Haersma Buma: 51,0%
Mona Keijzer 26,4%
Marcel Wintels 9,5%
Henk Bleker 7,3%
Liesbeth Spies 3,7%
Madeleine van Toorenburg 1,7%

[freek]

TNS NIPO poll,  1 June 2012 (compared with their previous poll of 2 May)

VVD 29 (-3)
SP 29 (nc)
PvdA 20 (nc)
PVV 19 (nc)
CDA 18 (+3)
D66 17 (+1)
GL 6 (-2)
CU 6 (+1)
SGP 2 (nc)
PvdD 2 (nc)
50Plus 2 (nc)
Other 0 (nc)

[freek]

Latest polls:

Synovate/Politieke barometer (July 6):
VVD 35
SP 29
PvdA 25
PVV 18
CDA 14
D66 13
CU 6
GL 4
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50+ 1

Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond (8 July)
SP 31
VVD 29
PVV 20
PvdA 19
D66 17
CDA 14
CU 7
GL 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
Other 2

EenVandaag (July 12):
VVD 33
SP 33
PvdA 18
PVV 16
D66 14
CDA 13
CU 8
GL 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50+ 2
Piratenpartij 1
Other 1

[freek]

WOW... so one is SP leads, one VVD leads, the other a tie... this is going to be close

Still two months to go. Everything is possible.

Last elections were June 9, 2010. A comparison between the Synovate poll of April 9, 2010 (left) and the election results two months later (right). VVD gained 9 seats in 2 months, CDA lost 8.

VVD 22 - 31
PvdA 33 - 30
PVV 23 - 24
CDA 29 - 21
D66 12 - 10
SP 11 - 15
GL 8 - 10
CU 8 - 5
SGP 2 - 2
PvdD 2 - 2
Other 0 - 0

[freek]

Also how come the PVV is down as it seems elsewhere anti-immigrant parties are gaining not losing?  Or have people just become tired of Geert Wilders as it seems other than bashing Islam, he doesn't have much else to say.

"Leave the EU" is his new policy. PVV has lost some popularity the last few weeks because of internal troubles. 3 PVV MPs left the party last week.

[freek]

Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond, July 15
VVD 31
SP 31
PvdA 19
PVV 19
D66 15
CDA 14
CU 7
GrLinks 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
Others 3 (Peil.nl considers the "other parties" as 1 party). Piratenpartij and 50Plus have 1 seat each (and are apparently both close to a 2nd one). DPK (see below) is clearly short of a seat.

The new party of former PVV MP Hero Brinkman (the Independent Citizen's Party OBP) has merged a few weeks ago with the Trots op Nederland party (Proud of the Netherlands). TROTS was founded by former VVD MP and minister Rita Verdonk, and almost won a seat in 2010. Verdonk has left the party some time ago, and the remains merged with the OBP to "Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt" (DPK, Democratic Political Turning Point, a name that makes just as much sense in English as it does in Dutch).

[freek]

SP to get prime ministerial spot would have to compromise a lot. Their government would have to include PvdA, D66, CU and GL with a very weak majority.
Seeing from far, I think that VVD to lead a government with PvdA would need to replace Rutte to become acceptable. Maybe a Prime Minister Neelie Kroes.

Neelie Kroes turns 71 tomorrow. She wants to retire in 2 years. Besides, Rutte is probably more popular with the PvdA than Kroes or other potential VVD prime ministers.

A coalition with both SP and VVD would be unlikely. There is not much that both parties agree on.

[freek]

Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond July 29
SP 34
VVD 31
PVV 19
PvdA 17
D66 15
CDA 14
ChristenUnie 7
GroenLinks 5
SGP 3
PvdD 3
50PLUS 1
Piratenpartij 1
Others 0

Synovate/Politieke Barometer July 27
VVD 35
SP 29
PvdA 23
PVV 18
CDA 15
D66 14
ChristenUnie 6
GroenLinks 4
PvdD 3
SGP 2
50PLUS 1
Others 0

For VVD, SP and PvdA, the differences between Synovate & Peil.nl remain huge.

Tomorrow, all parties hand in their list of candidates at the Electoral Council. New parties also had to gather 600 declarations of support, 30 each in the 20 electoral districts, in 1 week time.

The new electoral district of Bonaire, in the Caribbean, caused difficulties for some parties. It is by far the smallest district (the islands of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba, 20.000 inhabitants), and the only one not in the European part of the Netherlands.

[freek]

22 parties will participate in the 2012 elections.

All 10 parties in the current Parliament:
VVD
PvdA
PVV
CDA
SP
D66
GroenLinks
ChristenUnie
SGP
PvdD

2 parties who failed to win a seat in the 2010 elections:
- Partij voor Mens en Spirit (Party for Man and Spirit; a new age/spirituality party)
- Piratenpartij

10 new parties:
- 50Plus: A party for the elderly. The last of many parties founded by Jan Nagel, already represented in the Senate.

- Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt (Democratic Political Turning Point, the merger of TROTS with the OBP of former PVV MP Hero Brinkman), its policies somewhere in between VVD and PVV

- Libertarische Partij (Libertarian Party). Similar to libertarian parties in other countries.

- Liberaal Democratische Partij (Liberal Democratic Party). A social/liberal party, without the conservative tendencies of the VVD, and not as pro-EU as D66.

- Partij van de Toekomst (Future Party): Already participated in 2002 & 2003. It used to be the Dutch equivalent of the Monster Raving Loony Party, but they have transformed themselves to a more serious party that wants to govern via crowdsourcing.

- Nederland Lokaal (Local Netherlands): Independent/local parties are represented in most municipal councils. Some of them have grouped together to form Nederland Lokaal.

- SOPN (Soeverein Onafhankelijke Pioniers Nederland / Sovereign Independent Pioneers Netherlands): the tin foil hat party, aka the UFO party

- Anti Europa Partij (Anti Europe Party): The name summarizes its party programme, which is remarkably similar to the comments section of tabloid newspaper websites

These 20 parties participate in all 'European' electoral districts, some of them also in the Caribbean.

Two new parties only intend to participate in 1 district:
IQ partij: only in The Hague, wants to solve the problems with the budget deficit by suing Shell for EUR31bn, for murdering someone who invented a water powered car.

NXD partij: only in Amsterdam.

[freek]

Is GroenLinks really willing to govern under the same coalition as VVD or CDA ? I was under the impression, from when I looked into dutch politics back at the time of the last elections, that they were a rather left-wing ecologist party, more like the French Greens than the German ones. Isn't that so ?

The last few years GroenLinks (or at least its MPs) have become more of a left wing liberal party than a left wing socialist party, its policies closer to D66 than to SP. This happened while under the leadership of Femke Halsema. She retired from politics 1.5 years ago. Her successor Jolande Sap is more left-wing than liberal, but still not a socialist.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, that is possible. D66 has been, and will always be, the 'reasonable alternative' (which used to be a D66 slogan) to PvdA & VVD. If D66 leader Alexander Pechtold retires from politics, D66 will probably lose votes to PvdA & GroenLinks.

[freek]

Where are Groen Links supporters going?

This is from a TNS NIPO-poll, of July 17, 2012 (and May 30, 2012).
How to read this: Horizontal: Voted for <party name> in 2010. Vertically:  Will now vote for <party name>, i.e. 23% of GL-voters of 2010 now intend to vote for SP.

'Andere partij' = Other party (in case of GroenLinks probably PvdD and Piratenpartij, I guess)
'Weet nog niet/zou nieuw stemmen' = Don't know yet/Won't vote

[freek]

Semi off-topic, but this site here (http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1) used to have some really cool maps of winners by municipality for all elections since 1918, but when I click on 'kaart' now it always says that it's not available. Anybody (freek?) care to help me out here?

I'd love to help you out, but I encounter the same problem. I've emailed the Electoral Council.

[freek]

I'd love to help you out, but I encounter the same problem. I've emailed the Electoral Council.

Already received an answer. :-)

Apparently, the election results database website is in a process of switching suppliers for hosting & maintenance, and therefore some functions are not available at the moment, including the map functionality. The Council intends to have the maps working again soon, and at least before the September 12 elections.

[freek]

Party lists are final, the IQ Partij list is declared invalid, due to not paying the deposit of EUR11,250

Participating parties (by list number)

1. VVD
2. PvdA
3. PVV
4. CDA
5. SP
6. D66
7. GroenLinks
8. ChristenUnie
9. SGP
10. PvdD
11. Piratenpartij
12. Partij voor Mens en Spirit (not in the Caribbean)
13. Nederland Lokaal
14. Libertarische Partij
15. Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt
16. 50PLUS
17. Liberaal Democratische Partij (not in the Caribbean)
18. Anti Europa Partij
19. SOPN (not in the Caribbean)
20. Partij van de Toekomst (not in the Caribbean)
21. Politieke Partij NXD (only in Amsterdam)

[freek]

Latest Peil.nl / Maurice de Hond poll, of August 5:



Also, which groups are under or overrepresented in supporting a specific party. Apparently men prefer VVD & D66, women SP. A legend is  not provided unfortunately, but the ratio female:male for the SP is 60%/40%. Horizontally: Men | Women | <35 | 35-54 | 55+ | High education | Low education | High income | Middle income | Low income

[freek]

Re: 'Midden Inkomen'. Nu ben ik geen taalpurist, maar het is echt enorm vervelend hoeveel mensen lijken te denken dat je in het nederlands net als in het engels twee zelfstandige naamwoorden maar in elkaars buurt moet zetten om een grammaticaal correcte en zinvolle uitdrukking te bekomen. Niet zo heel vervelend in gevallen als deze waar het gewoon een letterlijke vertaling betreft, maar ik heb al echt heel lelijke voorbeelden van deze fout gezien. ('religie boek' is geen overdreven voorbeeld.) Extra irritant omdat er ook in de media mensen blijken rond te wandelen die zich niet geroepen voelen om tenminste geen afzichtelijke fouten te maken.


^^^^Irrelevant whining about grammar for the rest of you.

Ha, ik ben dus niet de enige die zich hieraan ergert. Dit verschijnsel is beter bekend als de 'Engelse ziekte'. Zie ook http://www.spatiegebruik.nl/index.php, de website van het Platform Signalering Onjuist Spatiegebruik. Die staat boordevol met voorbeelden:

[freek]

And now back to the elections.

5 weeks before the elections, the campaigns haven't started yet. All politicians seem to be on holiday. VVD and SP aim on a short campaign, now they are polling well.

I'll be volunteering in a polling station again, as usual since 2009. Until now, one of my tasks was counting, but this year I am in a different group, and I am off at 9pm. Disadvantage is that I will be at the polling station from 7am to 9pm, instead of half of that.
After some incidents the last few years, there has been more attention from municipalites for the selection and education of volunteers. I have just finished an e-learning module (including a compulsory test).

Latest TNS NIPO poll:
SP 37
VVD 31
PVV 18
PvdA 17
CDA 16
D66 14
CU 6
GL 5
SGP 3
PvdD 2
50PLUS 2
Others 0 (DPK 0.4%, Pirates 0.2%)

[freek]

No news about this election ? Well, I guess there aren't enough of us from the Old Continent to care

Sorry. I seem to be the only Dutchman posting at the moment, and I've been terribly busy the last 2 weeks.

Anyway, not much has happened, tonight is the first debate. This will be without Rutte (VVD), Roemer (SP) and Wilders (PVV), they declined the invitation. 8 other party leaders will participate (all other parties in parliament, and 50PLUS)

The first debate of Rutte, Roemer and Wilders (and also Samsom (PvdA)) will be next weekend.

One incident last week: Roemer said that, if he was prime minister, would not feel bound to the 3 percent deficit rule of the EU. If the Netherlands would be fined by the EU for having a budget deficit of over 3 percent of the GDP, he would refuse to pay it.

[freek]

Other information found in this poll, the main topics people care for in this campaign are the health system (58 %) (!!!), social security (48 %), and employment (44 %). Not a good context for PVV as you can see, and quite a good one for SP on the other hand. I think I would like this campaign. So much used to campaigns on silly topics like immigration, security and bullsh**t...

Asked which party has the better ideas, SP comes first, followed by VVD and PvdA. Surprisingly, D66 comes last, whereas it had enjoyed quite a bit of a rising in polls the last few weeks.

The question was "Which party has the best ideas concerning these three topics", not "which party has the best ideas".

Health care is an import topic indeed, this is caused by the budget cuts that are expected the following years. Despite budget cuts in the past, the spending for health care is increasing rapidly. Total spending has doubled in 12 years time, and is still increasing with at least 4% per year (excluding inflation).