Dutch general election - September 2012

[mileslunn]

Okay, I do not know much about Dutch politics, so anyone who has any thoughts chime away.

[mileslunn]

Whom do the polls show in front and how are they looking as it seems not too uncommon for a third place party to pull ahead or one to fall from first to third or lower.

[mileslunn]

I wonder if the strong showing of the Socialist Party is due to the economy struggling as well as perhaps an anti-austerity vote as it seems parties on both the far right and far left are doing better in Europe while those closer to the centre are somewhat weakening.  Traditionally when the economy is weak people often gravitate to the extremes, while more to the centre when strong.  Also what is the chance of a right wing or left wing.  For Right wing I am thinking of VVD + CDA + PVV and perhaps throw in the CU although I am not sure if you would consider them right wing.  For left wing it would be SP+PvDA+GL+D66.  Are either of those realistic or will it likely be a mixed coalition.

[mileslunn]

I don't think it is about just preserving the ethnic purity, but rather most European countries are not immigrant based countries like Canada, US, and Australia so people don't mind some immigration but not if it alters the dominate culture.  While it is true Muslims and minorities are far from being anywhere close to a majority in Netherlands, in many areas of the largest cities they are the majority (they aren't very many in the countryside as well as certain districts in most cities) thus some people falsely believe their culture is under siege and the PVV is able to play off that.

[mileslunn]

The stuff that gets said about Muslims in Europe these days sounds almost identical to the things that were being said about Jews in the 1930s...just sayin'

True a lot of the far right parties do say similiar things although I really doubt any of them actually could win an outright majority thus never being able to implement their policies.  Generally when the economy is weak, racism and xenophobia increase.  Never mind many groups they take extreme positions don't expect any government to implement them, they just want to move the government in that direction.  In the case of Europe, most governments have cut immigration levels, but not eliminated them, although technically they can only cut non-EU immigration as EU citizens regardless of race or ethnicity have the right to live and work in any EU country.

[mileslunn]

How about the PVV coming in first since my understanding is whichever party comes in first gets to supply the prime-minister.   Since I doubt the PVV could form a coalition, do they go to the next place party or is a new election called?  As for the Socialist Party doing well, I don't think Europe is moving to the left so much as it is moving to the extremes.  Generally people tend to stick closer to the centre when the economy is strong while move further to the left and right when it is weak.

[mileslunn]

It seems like much of Europe people are turning away from the traditional parties.  After all it use to be the case 25 years ago where the CDA and Labour Party were always the two main ones and would usually win at minimum 40 seats.  Is this also the case of more polarization too as I know the Socialist Party is to the left of the Labour Party, but is the VVD considered to the right of the CDA?  I know VVD is considered a Liberal party and CDA is a Christian Democrat so from a North American perspective it would mean the CDA is more conservative, but I know in Europe the word liberal has a very different meaning than North America.  Otherwise I believe they are more libertarian if anything albeit not say to the extent someone like Ron Paul is as I don't think any mainstream party in Europe advocates slashing government to that level.  My thinking for those who are familiar with Canadian politics is they would be similiar to the BC Liberals, to the business types in the federal Liberals like John Manley and Frank McKenna, and the more libertarian types in the Conservatives like John Baird or Maxime Bernier (otherwise those who favour Same sex marriage and abortion, but are for cutting the size of government).  Whereas the CDA seems more like the old Progressive Conservatives prior to merging with the Alliance, otherwise similiar to the John Tory types in the Ontario PCs, Alison Redford types in the Alberta PCs, and the provincial PCs in Atlantic Canada.  Anybody familiar with both could let me know if this assessment is accurate.  Also how come the PVV is down as it seems elsewhere anti-immigrant parties are gaining not losing?  Or have people just become tired of Geert Wilders as it seems other than bashing Islam, he doesn't have much else to say.