Dutch general election - September 2012

[YL]

Is there really a Party for the Animals in the parliament?

Yes.  Such are the consequences of national list PR with a very low threshold.

[YL]

The nice thing about these polls is that if present trends continue it will be mathematically impossible for there to be a pure rightwing government like the current one VVD-PVV-CDA is way below 75 seats now.

It actually seems that most plausible coalitions are below 75 seats; e.g. in the table below none of the five coalitions given have 75.  Could SP and CU work together?

Latest Peil.nl / Maurice de Hond poll, of August 5:

[YL]

To be honest I've been half expecting that to happen all along.  So are we now looking at a "Paars" type coalition?

I don't know who I'd actually vote for, possibly GL though PvdA, SP and D66 (though that chart suggests they've become a bit right-wing for my taste) are also possibilities.

[YL]

I was unsure about quite a few of the questions (e.g. the broadcasting one - I couldn't be bothered to look up the current system or what the suggested alternatives are) but got
SP
PvdA
PvdD
GL
PVV
CDA
D66
CU
SGP
VVD
with not much between the top four.

PVV should surely be lower, and I'd have thought that D66 would be higher.

[YL]

Is it going to be possible for there to be any government that does not include both VVD AND PvdA? or is some sort of "grand coalition" almost inevitable?

A centre-left or left government is still possible based on most of the polls. This would be PvdA + SP + at least two out of D66, CDA, CU and GL. Not all of those parties would necessarily be a part of the government; some/one could be supporting party.

Is there any evidence that any of those parties (except maybe GL) would want to work with SP, though?

[YL]

Throw in D66's result and the Pirate Party's meager 0.3%, however (but not 50 Plus - thank you for your earlier feedback), and you get to 47% of the vote. That's a more flattering comparison, since D66 did much better now than in 2003 and 2006. In fact, 47% for the 'broader center-left', if you will, is the second best score in post-war history, after 1998 (49%), and on a par with 1981 (47%).

Can D66 really be considered part of the "broader centre-left" any more, though?  They seem to have embraced a lot of right-wing economic ideas, and I think a centre-left liberal party ought to be prepared to work with the SP.  The impression I get is that they've moved into the right-wing liberal space vacated by the VVD as the VVD becomes the main right-wing party; I don't think the VVD can really be considered "liberal" in a British English sense any more, whatever their European affiliation.