Dutch general election - September 2012

[Leftbehind]

Is the SP destined to just sit out of forming a government, given even in the most favourable polls it'd need the likes of CU and D66 in it, or is it more likely to compromise?

[Leftbehind]

That seems to suggest people flocking from the minor parties to the SP and VVD, when comparing it to the last poll by TNS NIPO posted. A good poll for SP, in any case!

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for the update, and especially for relating SPs stance here.

Why would they refuse the debates? I'm not a fan of the debates held immediately before elections, but from what I can see they have a significant influence, and the minor parties here are itching to get on them.

[Leftbehind]

I thought the SP would be destined to sit out the next government even in its high figures, because it'd be impossible to form one worth bothering about, but it's still disappointing to see those drops.

[Leftbehind]

[Leftbehind]

Why doesn't Pvda simply form a coalition with SP?

Much of Pvda's recent rise has been at the expense of SP, making a leftist coalition no more likely (and indeed less likely now it'd be the former heading it).

[Leftbehind]

This election has been totally depressing for me since two weeks, so I'll boycott the prediction time.

Yeah; I was at least hoping for a place outside the pack for SP - that way they'd be set up for popular disquiet with the - always assured - purple government. Now looking at risk for fourth, that's not gonna happen.

F' hell, Dutch - you could have least had the courtesy not to raise our hopes like that.

[Leftbehind]

I know I said earlier I would boycott the predictions thing, but as a pessimistic kind of fellow, I would go VVD just over PvdA, then PVV, then SP just a bit over D66, then CDA and the others.

The reason I say this is that when you support the far-left, you know the fascists always end up polling better than you do by doing nothing at all. It's sad cause it's true...

I'd agree, but I'd place SP just behind PVV. Maybe I'm making an error of using us two as a sample, but I think the far-left are unreliable turnouts (pessimism being one of the many factors), whilst there's always a shy fascist vote unrecorded in pre-election polls. 

[Leftbehind]

Might be a daft question, but are the exit polls released as votes or seats?

[Leftbehind]

You need to make 10 posts before links are accepted.

[Leftbehind]

Re: Tender Branson, no, not the batteries... it's a long story :-)

Good idea about the URLs by the way, let me try this:

The latest polls, with comparisons to previous ones and charts:
http://i.imgur.com/HvG46.png

The polls from a week ago, with more background info:
http://i.imgur.com/nTIGX.gif

Linked.

[Leftbehind]

One link to follow the results?

Posted earlier in the thread: http://nos.nl/nieuws/live/politiek24/

Scroll down past the bar chart to the table - they're on the left.

[Leftbehind]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

[Leftbehind]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

Their all-time best isn't it? Only in this election.

It has gone back to 3 seats now and a lot of larger cities have not reported yet, so SGP will not end up with 4 seats

Ah. Thought they were declared rather than estimates!

[Leftbehind]

Thanks for the post on the GL, nimh. Another moderate hero bites the dust.

[Leftbehind]

Also I loved that you titled the paragraphs.

[Leftbehind]

I guess my prediction turned out be fairly accurate.

[Leftbehind]

You always find a way of working Clegg in. You'll enjoy his Urbandictionary definition.

[Leftbehind]

Nice chart. I suppose it's easier to gain support for the 'broader left' when most aren't particularly left-wing at all, though. I've no doubt the Labour party there's considerably more right-wing, you've chronicled the GreenLeft's journey, the SP travelling from Communism probably now occupies where the Labour party once were, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear that D66's shift has been much the same. Hardly a victory for the Left.

[Leftbehind]

On the bright side, I don't know if you'll agree, but as hard as the Green Left has moved further to the center even just this past year or two, Labour seems to have moved a bit back to the left compared to under Bos and Cohen, and a lot back to the left since the days of Kok in the 1990s. And I think the competition they've been suffering from  the rising SP has a lot to do with that. Whether that shift back left can survive a government coalition with the VVD is highly dubious, but I honestly do trust Samsom to not go as far down the Blairite way as Wim Kok did in his days as PM.

Indeed. One of the reasons I hate FPTP is because you'll rarely get such an effect, and I think it's largely why countries in the Anglosphere with the system end up with such right-wing politics - they're forced to sideline their deep disapproval with their right-wing turn unless they want to risk letting the even further right-wing party in.

Can D66 really be considered part of the "broader centre-left" any more, though?  They seem to have embraced a lot of right-wing economic ideas, and I think a centre-left liberal party ought to be prepared to work with the SP.

Well we know the SDP here weren't willing to work with a socialist, Eurosceptic Labour and I'd presume you regarded them as centre-left (although I don't disagree with your impression of D66).

[Leftbehind]

I love how people in the UK get told that PR eliminates tactical voting.

Well it does a better job than any other system of eliminating it. The coalescing around PvdA and VVD (forgetting that with FPTP they'd have probably still be begrudgingly voting CDA) would be much more pronounced.