Dutch general election - September 2012

[batmacumba]

Of course it isn't as though the SP is quite the party that it used to be either...

It's not clear to me, at this point, if that many voters started to understand that traditional SD parties aren't that SD anymore and that the hard left compromise with representative democracy pulled them to the position of real centre-left. It still seems more like protest voting than realignment. But I won't be surprised if sinistrisme started working again.

[batmacumba]

Just some data gathering.
here are graphs for IPSOS and Peil polls.


Peil


IPSOS

It seems that, since this year elections were announced, changes are merely internal, on the left and on the right.

Pollsters are also foreseeing coalitions, and the preferred seems to be the so-called Kunduz coalition of VVD, CDA, D66, Groen Links, ChristenUnie, or the Paars plus, with VVD, PvdA, D66, Groen Links. The all-left coalition isn't too strong and only have chances when the others go down. This is a regression for both pollsters:



Also, a regression with both pollsters for the number of seats in the lower chamber:

[batmacumba]

Where are Groen Links supporters going?