Dutch general election - September 2012

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Essentially the PvdA hasn't been sure whether it's a poacher or a gamekeeper and this has been quite, quite obvious.

The Dutch's habit of displaying poll results in number of seats instead of in % of votes is quite confusing.

They do the same in Israel, and for the same reason. It actually makes sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But surely one of the Stasi parties is in government right now and, actually, provides the Chancellor?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And that's not what Al was commenting on.

I'm going to wait a little longer to see if the penny drops on its own.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course it isn't as though the SP is quite the party that it used to be either...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps best not to create a grand continent-wide thesis based on political developments in the Netherlands. The... aha... pillars... that propped up the old party order aren't around (or aren't even vaguely relevant) anymore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The radicalisation of the Dutch electorate (which is what the movement of mainstream right voters to the VVD and of left voters to the SP looks like from the outside; always accept that reality might be different, especially when the electorate is as fickle as in the Netherlands these days) is a curious thing. How's it seen, as a thing, in the country itself?

(does that even make sense? Be a bit tired).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that sure sucks as hell... -__-

What could have possibly gone so wrong for the SP and/or so good for the PvdA to shift so quickly ? O_o'

Seems it was the telly debates.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of these days someone is going to have to explain the Dutch electorate (as it is now) to me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gil - who won 7 seats in the 2006 Israeli election and lost them all in 2009 - would count as well. Although a lot of their voters weren't actually pensioners.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To use a (not perfect, but it will do, maybe) British example, imagine if the Labour Right and Labour Left each formed separate parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map of party support from last time, by province:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

50PLUS 1 (new)

High school students vote for pensioners' party?

Ah, maybe 50Plus are like Gil after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What a defeat/let-down for the SP.

I suppose the same process that led to their remarkable polling figures early in the campaign contributed to this flop; the logic that it makes sense to vote for the largest party in your camp.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose someone should mention the comically awful CDA result...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Photos are good, so here are photos: http://www.nrc.nl/inbeeld/2012/09/12/de-lijsttrekkers-naar-de-stembus/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amsterdam is in: PvdA 36.2, VVD 19.1, D66 14.9, SP 9.3, PVV 6.3, GL 5.4, PvdD 3.1, CDA 2.2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very small changes in Amsterdam. Why is that?

Job Cohen was the PvdA leader in 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some great posts in this thread, especially from nimh (welcome to the forum, btw).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I somehow doubt that would be your opinion if - as looked likely early on in the campaign - the SP had been one of the primary beneficiaries of such voter calculations

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also a perfectly logical outcome from a democratic point of view and the two parties have worked together in the past.