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Author Topic: Presidential Election Predictions for your home state  (Read 7493 times)
Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
BushOklahoma
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« on: May 01, 2012, 09:07:04 pm »

Just looking at your home state, who do you think will win and what will be the MoV 6 months from now.

I have a hard time seeing Mitt Romney sweeping all 77 counties in Oklahoma.  I believe he will win decisively, of course, but I can Obama picking off 5-6 counties and possibly holding Romney to high 50's to near 60 here.  We don't like Obama, but we are not a fan of Romney, either.  Obama himself could muster between 38-41%.  I'm going to go with a 59-40% Romney Victory.
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2012, 09:27:55 pm »

How many times do I get to vote?
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2012, 09:29:32 pm »

56-43 Obama.
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2012, 09:30:21 pm »

51%-47% Romney
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Country First. Always.
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2012, 11:24:35 pm »

54-46 Romney
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2012, 11:26:30 pm »

57-41 Obama
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2012, 11:32:50 pm »

Obama 53% - Romney 45%
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CultureKing
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2012, 11:35:10 pm »

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county
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old timey villain
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2012, 11:56:30 pm »

Georgia 50-48 Romney

Gwinnett, Cobb and Henry counties flip
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2012, 12:04:18 am »

I think Obama's margin in New Jersey relative to the national margin will decrease from 8.26% to just barely below 8%
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2012, 12:16:37 am »

Let's assume Canada is quickly conquered and Ontario is admitted to the Union sometime before the election.

The ballot would probably include Mitt Romney (R), Barack Obama (D), and Thomas Mulcair (NDP). The current Conservative and Liberal Parties in Canada would be rendered pretty meaningless with R and D candidates on the ballot. Mulcair would emerge as the socialist option that many Ontarians would want.

Let's look at how Ontario voted in 2011.

Conservative: 45%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 25%
Other: 5%

It's hard to know where these votes would go if the options were Romney, Obama, and Mulcair. Let's assume 25% of Ontario would stay NDP. I bet half the old Liberals would break NDP, only because the Dems are still certainly to the right of where the Liberals stood.

Mulcair: 38%

The other 12% of the Liberal vote would go to Obama. The Conservative Party would then divide itself between Romney and Obama.

Obama: 34%
Romney: 23%

The thing is, Obama can pull in a lot of stupid people based solely on his rhetoric and oratory skills. So I'd give some of Mulcair's numbers to Obama. Maybe we'd have a breakdown like this...

Obama: 38%
Mulcair: 31%
Romney: 26%
Other: 5%
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2012, 12:31:39 am »

55-56% Obama
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2012, 01:11:03 am »

49-49 either way.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2012, 01:25:00 am »

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county
That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2012, 01:30:42 am »

My adopted home state: IL Obama 59-40
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CultureKing
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« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2012, 01:47:35 am »

Hmm... I am going with Fuzzy's take: 57-41.
But here is my crazy prediction: Obama flips Spokane county
That's not a crazy prediction. A crazy one would be Yakima or Franklin. At some point these 50% Hispanic counties should be voting D(obviously not 2012). I wonder how much closer they would be if Democrats put in an organization there if WA was a swing state.

True, but its about as 'crazy' as I am willing to get. Yakima and Franklin probably wont begin turning around for another 10-15 years or so; many of the Latinos living in those communities either are not registered to vote or cannot do so ('illegal' immigrants), when their kids grow up however republicans in the state could be in some serious trouble. Combining a pretty liberal white population on the west side with a sizable minority population (reaching majority status in some counties) will force a pretty large change on state politics, or at least on the state republican party.

Though then again the WA republican party has been pretty good lately at ignoring recent trends/realities.
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2012, 06:09:40 am »

57-41 Obama, with Litchfield flipping.
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2012, 08:57:47 am »

Texas - 54/44 Romney
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2012, 11:20:54 am »

55-44 Obama
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« Reply #19 on: May 02, 2012, 11:32:55 am »

Colorado 50/49 Romney
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2012, 01:02:58 pm »

54/45 Romney
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #21 on: May 02, 2012, 01:20:03 pm »

Obama 54
Romney 44
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
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« Reply #22 on: May 02, 2012, 01:21:53 pm »

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #23 on: May 02, 2012, 01:28:59 pm »

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #24 on: May 02, 2012, 01:33:08 pm »

Obama 54
Romney 44

I think Obama will win NV for sure, but by THAT MARGIN?!?!

It's a smaller margin than 2008.

Oh yeah I see.
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