I'll go with somewhere in this range.
As for OK, I think Bushie's a bit optimistic for Obama; while I do think a mild D swing is possible, 38% is
maybe his ceiling. And I don't think Romney sweeping every county is that far-fetched either.
Virtually everyone in my large family lives in Texas -- scattered all over the state. The only exceptions are me (in Florida) and one of my brothers who lives in California. From what I've seen over the years, Texans rarely realize just how much it sucks outside of Texas. One big clue: All the people who are flooding to Texas from failed states in the Midwest, Northeast and the far West.
Texas isn't a poor state -- though obviously it hasn't the rich resources of California. What it is is the last hope and refuge of large numbers of poor people who accept the miserable climate and ugly scenery of Texas because they can't afford to live where the weather and topography are nice but collectivists rule.
The great thing is that these newcomers usually become "more Texan than the Texans" because, unlike most American states, Texas actually has an attractive culture.
You sure it's not a bit
more than that?