Quinnipiac polls for FL OH and PA

[pbrower2a]

We are going to see States seem to swing from month to month and week to week based upon who polled them last... but basically the Republicans have themselves in a position of having very few ways in which to win and many in which to lose.

Take all the states that the Democrats have won in four of the last five elections (I discount the early Selzer poll in Iowa) and President Obama wins with

Colorado and Nevada
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Colorado and Nevada together looks like the easiest for the President. The others are different enough that any one can be won without the others.

You can remove Indiana (President Obama will win Ohio before Indiana), Arizona (he will win Colorado and Nevada first), or either Georgia or South Carolina (he would win both Florida and North Carolina first) from consideration.

Things look much like September 2008 in early May. President Obama can win with a defensive beat-the-cheat strategy that forces Mitt Romney to defend a bunch of States. 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac leans slightly R. Slightly.

The same sorts of people who voted for John McCain will almost all vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 -- if they vote. The same sorts of people who voted for President Obama in 2008 will vote for him again in 2012 -- if they vote. So far I see no evidence of any regional shift (let us say, voters in the inner arc of states from Louisiana to West Virginia who largely voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 going 'back' to the Democratic ticket, or on the other side, states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin marginally D in 2000 or 2004 going to Romney).  The states on the margin in 2008 are still on the margin, and the only arguable shift of a medium-sized state (Arizona) reflects the reversal of the Favorite Son effect. 

Texas seems to have gone from solid R to "fringe of competitiveness", at least according to one pollster, but we need remember that no single poll of Texas is trustworthy. No other state is like Texas in its demographics and voting history.

What matters is that in view of the voting of other states, about everything has to go right for Romney for him to win if the current polling situation remains in effect. If Florida, Missouri,  North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and the combination of Colorado and Nevada are all 50-50 propositions for Romney, then all of the states in that group are in his 'must-win' category and Romney must pick off one of Colorado and Nevada. Except for Colorado and Nevada those states are different from each other that they cannot be assured of going together short of a nationwide shift of votes. If the President seals one of those very different states states or the combination of Colorado and Nevada then it is all over for the Presidential race.