Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?
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  Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?
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Author Topic: Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?  (Read 13663 times)
tpfkaw
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« Reply #25 on: May 03, 2012, 08:30:44 PM »

I love how the initial question is totally loaded. Who says Mitt governed effectively? If he had, his approval rating wouldn't have been in the 30's by 2006.

I don't think he governed effectively, but his low approval rating was mostly because, rather than loudly distancing himself from national Republicans, as most successful statewide MAGOP politicos do, he loudly did just the opposite.  The national Republican brand is toxic in MA even in a year like 2010, in a year like 2006 it's fatal.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2012, 08:34:35 PM »

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2012, 08:37:21 PM »

Seriously? Even the Romney that ran for Senate would lose in a general election. Best case scenario I see him approaching 45%. But barring some Obama baby-eating controversy, I can't imagine even that.
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Wisconsin+17
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« Reply #28 on: May 03, 2012, 08:39:19 PM »

Not a chance in hell.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #29 on: May 03, 2012, 08:41:20 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2012, 11:01:07 PM by Native American wormyguy »

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."

He'll probably try to make a stop in Massachusetts every time he goes to NH (which is what he's been doing), and they'll make ads purchased in the Boston media market more generic rather than tailored to NH.  If he's leading by several points on election eve the campaign might make a final push in MA like Bush 2000 did in CA and NY edit: NJ (of course in that case the polls were wrong).
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Rockingham
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« Reply #30 on: May 03, 2012, 10:10:47 PM »

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it. Smiley
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #31 on: May 03, 2012, 10:23:14 PM »

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it. Smiley

Just remember that your wet dreams won't transmit into reality.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2012, 12:12:16 AM »

Keep in mind only 3 Presidents in US history lost their home state but yet won the Presidency, I guess if you want to have a good chance to win, win your home state!
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Rockingham
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« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2012, 12:28:35 AM »

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it. Smiley

Just remember that your wet dreams won't transmit into reality.
Not a wet dream. I just find it funny how confident everyone is that theirs 0% chance.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2012, 12:43:18 AM »

Polling doesn't even show him close, so there's your answer.
Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

Is it so unreasonable to think he might be able to bridge that gap if the economy returns to a downward spiral/Romney runs an effective campaign/a foreign policy crisis undermines Obama Carter style? I'd say if all three occur then the odds outright favour Romney.
To get 45% of the vote in Massachusetts, would be Romney would have to get 56% of the national vote (if you assume uniform swing) and the national polling isn't showing that sort of swing. In fact, at most, only a 1-2% shift is likely. Of course, a crisis could change the map, but my point is that Romney won't get close to winning the state under normal circumstances.
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Meeker
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« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2012, 01:14:53 AM »

Stop feeding the troll, folks.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2012, 10:09:25 AM »

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."

They can always have him campaign in one of his other home states.  Indeed, Romney has so many home states that it knocks more than a few potential VP choices out of the mix.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #37 on: May 04, 2012, 10:11:28 AM »

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it. Smiley

Just remember that your wet dreams won't transmit into reality.
Not a wet dream. I just find it funny how confident everyone is that theirs 0% chance.

Why on earth would you think Romney has a chance of winning Massachussets? Huh

Are you expecting some kind of random economic apocalypse between now and election day?
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Rockingham
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« Reply #38 on: May 04, 2012, 10:12:34 AM »

Polling doesn't even show him close, so there's your answer.
Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

Is it so unreasonable to think he might be able to bridge that gap if the economy returns to a downward spiral/Romney runs an effective campaign/a foreign policy crisis undermines Obama Carter style? I'd say if all three occur then the odds outright favour Romney.
To get 45% of the vote in Massachusetts, would be Romney would have to get 56% of the national vote (if you assume uniform swing) and the national polling isn't showing that sort of swing. In fact, at most, only a 1-2% shift is likely. Of course, a crisis could change the map, but my point is that Romney won't get close to winning the state under normal circumstances.

Your assuming the swing would have to be identical between states. Whereas recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Simple math folks.

Suggesting the possibility of an additional 5% swing makes me a troll? In the context of an incredibly unstable global economy and volatile(even more so then usual) Middle East? Give me a break.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #39 on: May 04, 2012, 10:12:54 AM »

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."

His campaign is headquartered in Boston.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2012, 10:14:02 AM »

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."

His campaign is headquartered in Boston.

I know that. Gore's campaign was in DC. How much campaigning did he do there?
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Rockingham
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« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2012, 10:15:58 AM »

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it. Smiley

Just remember that your wet dreams won't transmit into reality.
Not a wet dream. I just find it funny how confident everyone is that theirs 0% chance.

Why on earth would you think Romney has a chance of winning Massachussets? Huh

Are you expecting some kind of random economic apocalypse between now and election day?
Either this year or in 2013, courtesy of instability in Europe, China and the Middle East+ climate change.
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mondale84
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« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2012, 10:20:46 AM »

I think the prospect of Obama winning Kansas (his mother's home state) is comparable to Romney's chance in Massachusetts. Seriously, folks, this is the most ridiculous thread ever.

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Oakvale
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« Reply #43 on: May 04, 2012, 10:21:53 AM »

I think the prospect of Obama winning Kansas (his mother's home state) is comparable to Romney's chance in Massachusetts. Seriously, folks, this is the most ridiculous thread ever.



Yeah, I don't know why I'm bother to engage the troll. Romney's got about as much chance of winning California as Massachusetts.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2012, 11:35:24 AM »

What is this BS about me being a troll?

I'll repeat myself: recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Suggesting the possibility of an additional 5% swing does not make me a troll! In the context of an incredibly unstable global economy and volatile(even more so then usual) Middle East, such a swing is more likely then not.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #45 on: May 04, 2012, 11:37:44 AM »

I think the prospect of Obama winning Kansas (his mother's home state) is comparable to Romney's chance in Massachusetts. Seriously, folks, this is the most ridiculous thread ever.


I've provided maths, statistics and links. You and your ilk have provided contemptuous smirks.

Start providing a half valid statistical argument against my previous post, or admit to being a hack.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #46 on: May 04, 2012, 11:38:53 AM »

I wonder how many people in 1992 thought Clinton was going to lose Arkansas?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #47 on: May 04, 2012, 11:42:04 AM »

What is this BS about me being a troll?

I'll repeat myself: recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Suggesting the possibility of an additional 5% swing does not make me a troll! In the context of an incredibly unstable global economy and volatile(even more so then usual) Middle East, such a swing is more likely then not.

What would you say are the odds of Romney winning Massachusetts?

I'll put them at 1%. My context is that Romney has a 25% chance of winning the election as of now. 1% is the chance of a global catastrophe tied with an Obama scandal that makes him unelectable in a 1984-type GOP sweep that includes my state of Massachusetts. That's it. It's not happening.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #48 on: May 04, 2012, 11:46:17 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2012, 11:54:06 AM by Kyro sayz »

I think the prospect of Obama winning Kansas (his mother's home state) is comparable to Romney's chance in Massachusetts. Seriously, folks, this is the most ridiculous thread ever.



Yeah, I don't know why I'm bother to engage the troll. Romney's got about as much chance of winning California as Massachusetts.
Stastically flat out false. The most recent poll in California shows Obama with a 21% lead margin, whereas the most recent Massachusetts poll shows Obama with an 11% lead.

It's really quite disengenous for you to bring up "chance" without having looked up the statistics from which "chance" is determined.
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Rockingham
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« Reply #49 on: May 04, 2012, 11:52:43 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2012, 11:56:31 AM by Kyro sayz »


What would you say are the odds of Romney winning Massachusetts?

I'll put them at 1%. My context is that Romney has a 25% chance of winning the election as of now. 1% is the chance of a global catastrophe tied with an Obama scandal that makes him unelectable in a 1984-type GOP sweep that includes my state of Massachusetts. That's it. It's not happening.
The bolded part is where we disagree. Given the instability of China, Europe and the Middle East+climate change, I would posit it to be near certain that a global depression starts either this year or in 2013. Obviously if it doesn't then Obama will win Massachusetts cleanly, but I'd put the chance of depression having started by election day at somewhere between 50% and 25%. If it has started by then I'd say Mass is a tossup.

So I'd pin the odds of a Romney victory in Massachusetts at somewhere between 25%(based on the high estimate of a depression having started by then) and 12.5%(based on the low estimate of it having started by then).

I also disagree that winning Massachusetts entails a nationwide sweep for Mittens. Their were number of states bluer then Massachussets in 2008.
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