Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?

[ag]

I'm going to enjoy bumping this thread when he does win it.

I am afraid, others will find bumping this thread a lot more enjoyable )

If Romney wins MA, he wins, at least, 40 other states as well.  He should, of course, do better than most recent Republicans - I am almost certain he'd get into the 40s, may be even come close to 45%.  He will, probably, win in Plymouth county and might win Worcester. He'd struggle in Norfolk and Barnstable and almost certainly loose the rest of it, mostly by big margins.

To do much better than that, he'd have to run against the national Republican party, on a VERY liberal platform. He could do this when running for governor - he'd never be able to pull it off running for President. Even then it would be a strong lean D, though.

But there is no reason for him even to try to win MA - it would be a ridiculous use of limited campaing resources.

[ag]

He isn't a real troll. He's just very, very young, probably. You know, "on the internet knobody knows that you are a dog )  "

[ag]

The most recent poll shows Obama with 51%, Mittens 40%, 9% undecided. Assuming undecideds split fairly evenly that's 55 to 45 for Obama.

Mittens needs only a 5% swing in his favour in Massachusetts. I see that as a fairly plausible event if the economy starts collapsing again before November and/or Obama suffers a serious foreign policy humiliation in the Middle East.

Basing yourself on a particularly favorable poll months before the election, while ignoring everything else, is not very smart.

Well, may be, if Obama lets Netaniyahu rape one of his daughters and have it shown in a prime time news broadcast. I don't, know, may be...

[ag]

We're just talking past each other right now. Should an economic collapse/foreign policy humiliation occur between now and November, I may be vindicated.

In a scenario in which Romney wins 40+ states, MA could go. But it would be a huge landslide, and nobody would care of MA at that point. Anything short of that won't do the job.

A run-off-the-mill crisis - like the general economic near-meltdown in 2008 - would, probably, not be enough. May be, a tape of Obama acting in gay-necrophiliac porn movie could.

[ag]

I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.

[ag]

I'm not talking a near-meltdown, I'm talking a total meltdown, on account of the fact that implementing a second bailout ala the 2008 one would be politically impossible in the present congress.

You should keep in mind that back in 2008 serious people were talking about the coming meltdown many months, if not years, before it happened. By this time in 2008 sh**t was hitting the fan really strongly. Bear went down in March, if you are old enough to recall. There is NOTHING remotely like that in the offing this time. So, stop dreaming.

Actually their have been several years worth of concerned discussion about a possible slowdown in China, with outright assertions of a property bubble and unsustainable growth for more then a year past. Same holds true for concerns about the eurozone. If you've been following any of the commentary on the international economic situation you will have noticed countless respectable commentators(The Economist, for example) propounding on their potential to set of a recession/depression.

No dreams mate.

But none of them suggesting actual financial meltdown between now and November. A recession could be more than enough to elect Romney president - but not to have him winning in MA.

In any case, even if that happens, and Romney wins MA (could happen, I've conceded that before, though, of course, extremely unlikely), he would be winning so many other traditional Dem states (at the very least, before Obama looses MA, he'd loose all of Midwest, w/ possible exception of IL, as well as mountain west, PA, NJ, CT, NH, ME and everything south of DC; probably either OR or WA or both as well) that MA would, at most, be an icing on the cake. But, short of a huge landslide, this is, certainly, not happening.