Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?

[Brittain33]

Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

It depends who they are. In Texas, the undecideds are almost all Republicans. In Massachusetts, they are Dems or lean-Dems. By November, each group will have been reminded who they really support at heart and those gaps will grow.

[Brittain33]

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."

His campaign is headquartered in Boston.

[Brittain33]

What is this BS about me being a troll?

I'll repeat myself: recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Suggesting the possibility of an additional 5% swing does not make me a troll! In the context of an incredibly unstable global economy and volatile(even more so then usual) Middle East, such a swing is more likely then not.

What would you say are the odds of Romney winning Massachusetts?

I'll put them at 1%. My context is that Romney has a 25% chance of winning the election as of now. 1% is the chance of a global catastrophe tied with an Obama scandal that makes him unelectable in a 1984-type GOP sweep that includes my state of Massachusetts. That's it. It's not happening.

[Brittain33]

The reference to climate change causing a depression in fall 2012 or 2013 is trollish.

[Brittain33]

Rockingham seems to think that Romney is somehow going to achieve a 25-point swing despite the fact that he was elected once, quite underwhelmingly, as Governor and left office fairly unpopular.

That 25-point swing isn't as intimidating when you break it up into a series of highly reasonable 5-point swings.

[Brittain33]

The most recent poll shows Obama with 51%, Mittens 40%, 9% undecided. Assuming undecideds split fairly evenly that's 55 to 45 for Obama.

I know this is all trolling, but did you see that it's a Rasmussen Poll and no other poll shows anything like that narrow a margin?