The bolded part is where we disagree. Given the instability of China, Europe and the Middle East+climate change, I would posit it to be near certain that a global depression starts either this year or in 2013. Obviously if it doesn't then Obama will win Massachusetts cleanly, but I'd put the chance of depression having started by election day at somewhere between 50% and 25%. If it has started by then I'd say Mass is a tossup.
You're obviously forgetting that Israel's impending attack on Iran is going to trigger World War III this year. As wartime president Obama will of course win 40+ states in a FDR-esque landslide, among them Massachusetts.
