Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?

[tpfkaw]

He'll do quite well for a Republican in Massachusetts, but almost certainly not enough to outright win the state.

[tpfkaw]

Haha we'll see. I reckon I'll be vindicated come November. Noone though Scott Brown would win Massachusetts either.

Remember Massachusetts lacks a large nonwhite population to prop up the Democrats, and all recent polls show all white subgroups(including liberals) becoming less supportive of Obama.

I actually agree that MA is trending Republican... just not that fast.

[tpfkaw]

Didn't he have approval ratings comparable to John Kasich/Rick Scott after leaving office?

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Research_Centers/Nov_6_2006_marginals.pdf

36-55 disapproval according to this poll.  He's recovered since then and I think he's now slightly positive.

[tpfkaw]

I love how the initial question is totally loaded. Who says Mitt governed effectively? If he had, his approval rating wouldn't have been in the 30's by 2006.

I don't think he governed effectively, but his low approval rating was mostly because, rather than loudly distancing himself from national Republicans, as most successful statewide MAGOP politicos do, he loudly did just the opposite.  The national Republican brand is toxic in MA even in a year like 2010, in a year like 2006 it's fatal.

[tpfkaw]

It will be hilariously awkward to see the campaign try to decide exactly what to do in terms of campaigning in Massachusetts. Given who he is, they can't just say, "We're obviously not going there."

He'll probably try to make a stop in Massachusetts every time he goes to NH (which is what he's been doing), and they'll make ads purchased in the Boston media market more generic rather than tailored to NH.  If he's leading by several points on election eve the campaign might make a final push in MA like Bush 2000 did in CA and NY edit: NJ (of course in that case the polls were wrong).