Will Mitt Romney win Massachusetts?

[DrScholl]

Polling doesn't even show him close, so there's your answer.

[DrScholl]

Polling doesn't even show him close, so there's your answer.

Actually most recent polls show Obama with a lead margin of between 11% and 15% over Romney, but with ~10% undecided. The majority of undecideds typically end up against the incumbent. Assuming that holds true in Mass, all Romney might be looking at 45% of the vote against Obama's 55% if the election were held today.

Is it so unreasonable to think he might be able to bridge that gap if the economy returns to a downward spiral/Romney runs an effective campaign/a foreign policy crisis undermines Obama Carter style? I'd say if all three occur then the odds outright favour Romney.

To get 45% of the vote in Massachusetts, would be Romney would have to get 56% of the national vote (if you assume uniform swing) and the national polling isn't showing that sort of swing. In fact, at most, only a 1-2% shift is likely. Of course, a crisis could change the map, but my point is that Romney won't get close to winning the state under normal circumstances.

[DrScholl]

Your assuming the swing would have to be identical between states. Whereas recent polling shows Romney doing a lot better then McCain in Massachussets(40% Romney to 51% Obama), and that's leaving a substantial undecided vote. Assuming it splits slightly favourably to Romney, that's 45/55%. Which means he only needs an additional 5% swing over the course of this campaign.

Simple math folks.

Rasmussen has been showing better results for Republicans a lot of places, Obama certainly will be well over 50% on election day. Second, uniform swing I referring to is based on the previous presidential vote. With a big national swing, Romney would have to over-perform in a big way in Massachusetts to get 45% and he just doesn't have that sort of appeal in the state. 1-2% points from what McCain got may be possible, but beyond that, it's not going to be much different.