Is Obama more popular than he ought to be?

[milhouse24]

The mainstream media, except for Fox news, is still very pro-Obama and perhaps out of guilt, isn't really hammering him very much on things like the economy.  There's almost this complacency feeling amongst the media to try to ride out the economy and 'hope' it gets better if we have more patience and give it another 6 months, and then another 6 months. 

the media doesn't want to make personal attacks on Obama, who has a fairly clean personal life in the past 5 years.  He hasn't been caught in any affairs, or drunken mumblings.  He also has a young family, and the media thinks of this as a Kennedy Camelot era. 

The personal attacks that have been publicized like the birth certificate issue are silly and juvenile that turned off a lot of indepedent voters. 

But I think once, Romney gets his footing, he'll try to bring down Obama's popularity. 
The GOP primaries almost helped Obama's popularity because Newt and Santorum aren't very likeable guys to independent voters.  Romney is more likeable than Newt or Santorum. 

Romney's personality is basically and average-minded, even-keeled, white guy. 
If citizens become disenchanted with Obama for whatever reason, they would be willing to vote for Romney since he is an inoffensive, bland person, with an eager-beaver willingness to please

[milhouse24]

I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

So, far more than the majority of Americans voted for Obama, so in essence, he has nowhere to go but down in popularity.  You may think it will be another 49 state re-election like Reagan, but its highly unlikely. 

Therefore, there are more people who for whatever reason went from voting for Bush in 2004 to voting for Obama in 2008.  Now they have soured on Obama.  These people are also called swing voters.  If you are between the ages of 20-30, you are not a swing voter. 

A swing voter is someone from a swing state, perhaps in the midwest, is a white catholic suburban soccer mom or nascar dad over the age of 30, who doesn't have a college degree, and is working a blue-collar union job.  These voters are worried about their paychecks and usually vote for whoever candidate is more competent on the economic issues. 

Maybe they never liked Obama, but they obviously liked Obama more than the elderly McCain. 

So now that the matchup is between Obama and a pragmatic Harvard educated law and mba grad Romney, it is going to be a more competitive campaign. 

There are going to be a lot of Bush 2004 voters who will be attracted to Romney's message.  If Romney can keep all the Bush 2004 voters, then he can win the election. 

[milhouse24]

I love when people say that everyone they've talked to has gone sour on Obama. Talk about an echo chamber. Maybe they never liked Obama, and now they're just more comfortable saying it. Or maybe, just maybe, the vast majority of people who voted for him in 2008 will vote for him again, simply because of the alternative.

So, far more than the majority of Americans voted for Obama, so in essence, he has nowhere to go but down in popularity.  You may think it will be another 49 state re-election like Reagan, but its highly unlikely. 

Therefore, there are more people who for whatever reason went from voting for Bush in 2004 to voting for Obama in 2008.  Now they have soured on Obama.  These people are also called swing voters.  If you are between the ages of 20-30, you are not a swing voter. 

A swing voter is someone from a swing state, perhaps in the midwest, is a white catholic suburban soccer mom or nascar dad over the age of 30, who doesn't have a college degree, and is working a blue-collar union job.  These voters are worried about their paychecks and usually vote for whoever candidate is more competent on the economic issues. 

Maybe they never liked Obama, but they obviously liked Obama more than the elderly McCain. 

So now that the matchup is between Obama and a pragmatic Harvard educated law and mba grad Romney, it is going to be a more competitive campaign. 

There are going to be a lot of Bush 2004 voters who will be attracted to Romney's message.  If Romney can keep all the Bush 2004 voters, then he can win the election. 

You misunderstood me. I was proposing that maybe many of the vocal critics of Obama these days are people who didn't vote for him in 2008, gave him maybe a one week honeymoon, and then decided to bash him for the rest of his term. So they can legitimately say, "well I gave him a shot," when they really never gave him a shot at all. I have heard this from many, many people.

And as for this supposed swing towards Romney because he's oh so competent....whatever you say

It has now been almost 4 years since his election in 2008.  Maybe they didn't like Obama in 2009 or 2010 or 2011.  But it is now 2012 and if people want to be vocal about their disapproval of the state of the country, then that is completely their right to freedom of political speech.  I would also like to point out that Republicans won an overwhelming number of elections in 2010, so your conclusion that people are criticizing Obama now is false.  People have been criticizing Obama as early as 2010 because they have gripes about the Obama administration, which is perfectly within their rights as American citizens and their rights as voters who overwhelmingly prefer Republicans in 2010, and most likely in 2012 as well.  So, you are maybe willingly or ignorantly ignoring the Republican successes in 2010.  In addition, it has been 4 years, so people either like Obama or they don't like Obama and what he has done or not done during these 4 years, and they have a legitimate excuse.  You may think that Obama has had the best 4 years in American history, but there are plenty of people who disagree with you. 

Romney has an MBA and Law Degree from Harvard university so I don't know why you would not call him competent. 

Obama just has a law degree from Harvard and you think he's a genius. 

[milhouse24]

again, whatever you say

I think you prove a good point that their is an irrational emotional connection to Obama despite dissonance with the facts on the ground.  There are diehard Obama believers who completely believe he is the liberal savior of the Church of Obama.

This is similar to the christian conservatives and evangelicals who completely support George W Bush.  Not because of what he has done, but because who the person is as a born-again pro-life Christian Evangelical. 

Obama has successfully created a cult of personality similar to celebrities who can do no wrong.  He has not had great successes but has not had any major scandals, and he is primarily coasting on an emotional win and emotional message from 2008. 

The Obama believers have a honeymoon afterglow and they see him as a smart, attractive man who can do no wrong.  I would say that they are actually 100% in love with Obama as a person. 

Now, the cult of celebrity is a strong an powerful force that has guided presidents and politicians forever.  Even in a bad economy and high unemployment, Obama is beloved. 

This will be a major issue with the Romney campaign.  Will Romney end up looking like fellow mass-hole John Kerry or will Romney be able to create his own cult of personality and become emotionally beloved by voters.  Romney needs to create his own celebrity personality in order to establish an emotional connection with voters.