State(s) Obama has the best chance to pick up this cycle

[Indy Prez]

Bearing in mind Mittens is the Rominee and Gary Johnson'll be running on the LP ticket.

[Indy Prez]

I think Obama's gonna be doin better on the Atlantic-coastal Deep South (Georgia or SC). Romney's done disastrously up against some pretty weak candidates down there in the primaries, while Obama's probably won some of those them over with the killing of Bin Laden. Blacks are going to be backing there guy more than ever for a second term while Johnson should win over Romney-targeted suburbanite transpalnts from up North.
 As fr the West, every Mormon and his wives will be driving to the polls to back there guy, while poor Hispanics will probably flock to the candidate who doesn't want to build the wall -Gary or Barry. Unless Mitt picks Brian Sandoval or Susana Martinez for Veep to take the Mexican middle class conservative vote, though Colorado withstood the Tea Party onslaught in 2010. But Johnson should keep everything safe for the Dems should that not be the case.
 It's likely Barry won't be wasting re-election money on Missouri since it's full of groups who despise or are indifferent to him and Montana Schweitzer-Democrats won't be coming out to vote for the guy who refused the pipeline. That said, a bolstered environmental base out West could flock to the polls and put some red (dave leip old skool) on the map if Gary  takes enough of the Cowboy vote away from Mitt. So yes - AZ, MT, ND and TX could all be up for grabs.

[Indy Prez]

Barring a second 9/11 in October, you're smoking something mighty foul if you think he has a chance at any of these

Polling in AZ and MO is currently pretty close...

Polls aren't worth a steaming pile of dogsh-t.  Traditionally, undecideds trend away from the incumbent, and the latest poll I saw had Undecideds at around 5% in MO and AZ.  Just remember that in 1980 polling was close the week before election day, but over the weekend all undecideds broke for Reagan.

What about Iowa and new mexico in 2004? Arizona and Florida in 1996?