how effective would a San Diego dempack be?

[Torie]

Yeah but he is asking if Dems would be limited to just one San Diego area seat in his map. I say no, 51% Brown is probably 58% Obama or so down there. Likely Dem. Muon your map is a safer R choice, but not as cutthroat in maximizing opportunities.

It is hard to be too excited by it all, since the odds that there will ever be a GOP gerrymander in CA are effectively zero.

[Torie]

Of course the other people who live in areas where Hispanics do in California tend not to be Republicans except for the Central Valley, where you'd run into some VRA issues trying to dilute the vote. I suppose there's lots of Hispanics in Orange County, but they're not in the same areas as the most solidly Republican ones.

Both Sanchez sisters could be eliminated, for example.

That would be extremely difficult with the VRA in place. But it may be possible to make the OC CD rather marginal.  The VRA is not the Pub's friend in CA, and in general when it comes to Hispanics. The Pubs would probably prefer the VRA be limited to blacks.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Some Circuits use a Section 5 standard in applying Section 2?

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Some Circuits use a Section 5 standard in applying Section 2?

The 7th historically uses election data to show the ability of a minority to elect a candidate of choice in section 2 cases. They rejected a MALDEF claim in 2008 that would use a threshold of 65% VAP to model CVAP as arbitrary. In the 2011 IL congressional suit they referenced a benchmark of 59.2% HVAP as that was the number in 1991 IL-4 that has elected the candidate of choice for the last 20 years.

So we have a circuit courts' trifecta: 50% CVAP, 50% VAP, and ala Section 5, a non bright line psephological analysis in lieu of a specific percentage hurdle. Do I have that right?