how effective would a San Diego dempack be?

[Napoleon]

Yeah but he is asking if Dems would be limited to just one San Diego area seat in his map. I say no, 51% Brown is probably 58% Obama or so down there. Likely Dem. Muon your map is a safer R choice, but not as cutthroat in maximizing opportunities.

[Napoleon]

I have drawn a solid pubmander for CA. The thing about Hispanics is, they are very Dem, but very poor at turning out (or, unable to, for other reasons). Obviously, it stretches the whole CoI thing to its extremes.

[Napoleon]

Of course the other people who live in areas where Hispanics do in California tend not to be Republicans except for the Central Valley, where you'd run into some VRA issues trying to dilute the vote. I suppose there's lots of Hispanics in Orange County, but they're not in the same areas as the most solidly Republican ones.

Both Sanchez sisters could be eliminated, for example.

[Napoleon]

I believe I kept Santa Ana whole- tried not too chop municipalities too much. When I have access to that file, I will upload it. Monday or Tuesday work?

Linda has I think a 56 % Obama district- she would lose to a moderateish Republican but the right Democrat could make it close too.

[Napoleon]

Here is CA-39 with all the numbers. R-Gerry


Someone like Don Knabe, as an example, would probably knock off Linda Sanchez here. It would be typically competitive I imagine.

[Napoleon]

CA-40 and CA-47 here.



This R-Gerry made a few tweaks to the existing map to create a majority R-leaning seats. Sacrificed some safety for opportunity but this is basically a Republican dream map. There may be a few VRA hiccups here and there, CA-47 is 57% Hispanic but Royce's district is only 27% White.

[Napoleon]

53-47 Brown (shows in pic )

I would estimate it voted 51-48 or so for John Kerry over George Bush in 2004. Splitting Santa Ana in CA-47 could free up some Republican votes, or packing OC Hispanics in CA-47. CA-46 and CA-42 are both over 60% for Meg.

edit: Take into consideration Meg's under performance in the lower class Hispanic areas of Whittier and Norwalk- Brown actually gets higher percentages than Obama in some of these neighborhoods- I would attribute it to the illegal maid causing some damage to Meg's reputation among recent immigrants/their families that can vote. Who knows if these are the type of people that even vote on the down-ballot races like that. It's probably a D+2.5 or so district.

LA County portion is 58.5 Obama/41.5 McCain.
Orange County portion is 48.5 Obama/51.5 McCain (and 58.2 for Whitman).