Could Ron Paul actually win the GOP nomination?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Nominally possible, but it would require that Romney drop the ball in the next couple of conventions/primaries/caucauses and that Paul's organization is just as strong in all of the other states as it is in the small caucus states (Minnesota, Iowa, etc)

It also requires that Paul supporters go for the "ninja delegate" strategy by abstaining or by simply breaking the rules and being removed to be replaced by an also pro-Paul delegate (eg. Romney wins every California district, but twenty Paul delegates are snuck in, take a delegate and a substitute slot, and vote Paul anyway, removing the total number of delegates and lowering Romney's total if not by as much had they simply abstained, something the Romney campaign probably has a failsafe against). I haven't heard of this occurring on a large scale (barring small time instances eg. "I campaigned as a pro-life conservative and ended up as a Gingrich delegate not that I'm complaining"), so we won't know how that goes until nomination day.

Also, in the (incredibly unlikely) event that Paul steals the nomination this way, the "mainstream" Republicans would probably flip out, the right wing media like FOX would go into a rage, and the party would tear itself apart as the national organization (run by Romney supporting types) split with the state organizations (which Paul has basically taken control of in several areas) and made things messy. There'd probably be at least one anti-Paul Republican running independent or third party, and Obama would be laughing his ass off at the impending easy victory (though in the long term, it would open up a lot of formerly safe Democratic demographics to Republican/Paul Republican competition).

The far more important fallout from this is that Paul backers are seizing every piece of the Republican party apparatus to strengthen him in the short term, and that could have huge impacts on the future statewide elections later, not to mention the presidential election (assuming a Romney victory). For example, I know for a fact that the state parties of Iowa, Minnesota and Alaska are basically Ron Paul parties, and most Ron Paul supporters absolutely detest Romney even if Paul himself doesn't. Romney will have a hard time fighting Obama if half of the state parties want him to lose. That isn't even mentioning the fact that in some states, the state parties elect the Electors, meaning a pile of Romney Electors could simply end up defecting to Johnson at the last minute. Were I a betting man, I'd go invest a pile of money in Obama winning the upcoming election (a bet I'd lose if Obama's economic delaying measures crumble too early).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Fun update: From what I've heard, Nevada and Maine's convention were both complete Paul sweeps. The state apparatus in Nevada (Chair, etc) was completely taken over, the same in Maine. Paul gained 22 of 25 delegates in Nevada and 22 of 22 in Maine, though I'm unsure of how those delegates were bound (so its possible they'll simply abstain in the first round of nomination voting).

EDIT: Nevada has 28 delegates overall. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 3 of those aren't voted on (I think they're superdelegates?) and will almost certainly vote Romney, and 3 went to Romney. Furthermore, 20 of the 28 are bound to Romney regardless, so depending on the status of the 3 unvoted delegates that means Paul gets either 2, 5, or 8 "outright" delegate votes, and potentially Romney gets a bunch of abstained votes for round 1.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Isn't there some rule about needing to win 5 states to be considered for nomination?  And in this case, does "winning" a state just mean getting the most delegates, regardless off how the state voted?

He needs a plurality of delegates from a given state, he doesn't have to necessarily win the straw poll.

Whether it counts as a "Paul win" or not depends on the state rules though. Minnesota, for example, is a clearcut Paul win, the same applying to states with mostly unbound delegates (that'd be Minnesota, Iowa, Maine for sure to him, possibly Washington depending on how well he did/does, and possibly Louisiana and Massachusetts depending on how the rules are dealt with there). Nevada, on the other hand, is considered "Romney" despite the fact that almost the entire delegate slate is filled with Paul backers who will look for whatever out they can on the matter (in other words, abstaining from the first round of voting).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

There's a new website here called http://thereal2012delegatecount.com and it's bad news for my man Romney.

1,660 delegates are TBD in upcoming state conventions.

Paul's been able to capture 75%-95% of delegates in conventions thus far. If he comes anything close to that in the state conventions coming up, he will be nominated on the first ballot.

According to the site, Romney only has 322 "hard" delegates (delegates from states that have finished their process). Paul swept 15/15 CD delegates in Virginia, and will likely sweep another 9 on May 19. That wipes out another Romney state.

And this site is being generous to Romney - for example, it assigns him 8 "hard" delegates in Alaska to just 6 for Paul, but someone on this forum noted awhile back that Paul actually has an absolute majority of the Alaska delegates in support, even though some of them are still bound to Romney. At the convention, they'll be abstaining the first round and going Paul on the second round.

If this site is to be believed, the only major states that the Paulites will not be able to hijack is Ohio.

I'm increasingly believing that Paul not only could, but will win the nomination.

You forget that the nationwide GOP detests Paul. I'd imagine if all the Paulites have is control of the state parties/delegations, they'd simply declare Romney "nominated" and evacuate the building or pull some similar trick. Massively damaging to the GOP, yes. Ruining Romney's chance at Obama, yes. But then, Romney ain't likely to beat Obama unless there's a new war or the recession comes back in force.